The prestigious Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, set for Saturday at Oaklawn Park with a $1.5 million prize, has attracted a formidable lineup of competitors, consistent with its standing as a premier Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying event, awarding 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 points respectively to the first five horses across the finish line.
Several participants have demonstrated their capabilities in prior races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. #2 Silent Tactic (5-2) secured victory in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and comes off a narrow defeat by a nose in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. #3 Blackout Time (6-1) achieved an impressive second place in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity during the previous autumn. #6 Renegade (3-2) recently claimed a convincing win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and #9 Litmus Test (5-1) was victorious in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity back in December.
However, is there a chance that the outsider #5 Taptastic (20-1) could emerge victorious in his debut on the Kentucky Derby pathway? This possibility is certainly not remote. This superbly bred colt, sired by Tapit, appears to be a promising young contender under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a four-time winner of the Arkansas Derby.
Taptastic performed exceptionally well despite difficult conditions during his inaugural appearance in a one-mile maiden special weight race on March 8 at Oaklawn. Competing on a track made heavy by rain, he became trapped along the inner rail without clear running room, while the front-runner, Dawn At Normandy, established modest sectional times of :23.84, :48.57, and 1:13.57.
During the final straight, Taptastic managed to force his way through a restricted gap near the rail. Finally finding space to maneuver, he unleashed a powerful surge of speed. He covered his concluding furlong in an impressive :11.77, allowing him to pull ahead and defeat Dawn At Normandy by a length and a half.
Certain handicappers might be reluctant to back Taptastic due to his moderate Beyer Speed Figure and a comparable, unexceptional Brisnet speed rating. However, the leisurely early pace was not ideal for producing high speed figures. The observation that Taptastic was picking up speed at the finish implies he had additional energy reserves and might have achieved a quicker overall time had he secured clear running space earlier.
The Arkansas Derby covers a distance of 1 1/8 miles. Taptastic possesses the lineage indicating he will thrive over the added eighth of a mile, therefore, given an unhindered journey, he could significantly improve his performance and contend for the win at his 20-1 odds.
Our recommendation is to wager on Taptastic for a straight win and to include him in an exacta combination with Renegade and Silent Tactic.
Betting Approach for a $12 Spending Plan
A $6 wager for #5 Taptastic to claim victory
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $6 win on 5
A $1 exacta involving 5 with 2,6 (overall expense: $2)
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $1 exacta 5 with 2,6
A $2 exacta featuring 2,6 with 5 (combined cost: $4)
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $2 exacta 2,6 with 5
Betting Approach for a $36 Spending Plan
An $18 wager for #5 Taptastic to claim victory
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $18 win on 5
A $3 exacta involving 5 with 2,6 (overall expense: $6)
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $3 exacta 5 with 2,6
A $6 exacta featuring 2,6 with 5 (combined cost: $12)
Phrase for the teller: Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $6 exacta 2,6 with 5
We wish you good fortune, and hope you delight in the competition!
