The postseason competition for the FedEx Cup has showcased varying degrees of predictability in recent years, and the 2025 iteration is anticipated to lean towards the less predictable side. The PGA Tour’s announcement in May of adjustments to the Tour Championship setup, which will see all 30 participants in the postseason finale start on an even playing field, means that simply qualifying for East Lake Golf Club will present a viable opportunity to secure the top prize at the season’s conclusion.
The FedEx Cup has been previously won by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland, and it is anticipated that these three will play a role in the upcoming postseason to some degree. Given the increased variability implemented in the Tour Championship, and without any starting stroke advantages for competitors, there could be some unexpected contenders who emerge with a genuine chance of lifting the silver trophy.
The journey to the offseason involves somewhere between two and twelve rounds of golf for the participants, with the top 70 players on the PGA Tour participating in the St. Jude Championship before the field is narrowed to 50 players at the BMW Championship, ultimately leading to 30 players in the Tour Championship.
Is it possible that a player positioned outside the top 50 could advance through the BMW Championship, reach the Tour Championship, and perhaps even claim victory at East Lake?
So, what specifically is anticipated to unfold during the three weeks comprising the FedEx Cup Playoffs? Let’s begin by examining some forecasts and selections from our CBS Sports analysts, as we aim to predict the victor — and the sequence of events — in this version of the postseason.
2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs forecasts, analyst’s selections
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf journalist
Selection for FedEx Cup Champion — Russell Henley (22-1): Henley enters the playoffs positioned within the top five in the season-long standings, guaranteeing his participation in the Tour Championship. He achieved 3rd position last season at a revamped East Lake and will be arriving this year in the peak of his form. The reliable competitor continues to contend (and emerge victorious) in major tournaments and prominent events, suggesting that he is capable of replicating this feat in a smaller field.
Dark Horse for FedEx Cup Champion — Aaron Rai (200-1): Rai faces a substantial task to achieve success, yet he possesses the characteristics to potentially go all the way. The British player is outside the top-50 mark at the start of the postseason, but a solid performance at TPC Southwind might serve as a catalyst for the month of August. Rai recently finished inside the top five at the Wyndham Championship, and his playing style aligns well with both TPC Southwind and East Lake, should he progress that far.
Most Likely to Disappoint — Ben Griffin (starting at No. 6): Griffin regained momentum at the Wyndham Championship; however, he had faced challenges prior to that, with consecutive missed cuts at the John Deere Classic and The Open. He will be competing on golf courses — Caves Valley and East Lake — that he has not encountered before in PGA Tour competition, and his ball-striking abilities have diminished somewhat from their summer peak.
Player with the Most to Gain or Lose — Jordan Spieth (starting at No. 48): Spieth was subject to criticism during 2025 for accepting sponsor invitations to prominent events; however, he now has the chance to secure his place in those tournaments through his performance. By maintaining his position within the top 50, Spieth will be afforded greater control over his schedule in 2026, which he has acknowledged as a crucial season in his recovery from wrist surgery. Surpassing expectations and qualifying for the Tour Championship would indicate strong performances in one of the first two playoff events, which would likely capture the attention of U.S. Ryder Cup leadership.
Robby Kalland, golf journalist
Selection for FedEx Cup Champion — Scottie Scheffler (12/5): Is there any point to contemplating another potential winner of these significant events, only to see Scheffler dominate the competition? He excelled at the redesigned East Lake last year (-20 without starting strokes), and there’s no evident reason to assume he won’t repeat this achievement this year. His proficiency with ball-striking is consistent across various venues, and his putting seems to be improving in frequency, making him a formidable contender.
Dark Horse for FedEx Cup Champion — Wyndham Clark (190-1): Wyndham has demonstrated exceptional performance since his reaction at Oakmont. Do I endorse his approach? Not necessarily, but it’s challenging to dispute the outcomes. Since the U.S. Open, his results have been T17, MC, T11, T4, and T12, gradually advancing him to 49th in the standings. He will need to accomplish further to reach East Lake, but he attained a top 10 finish at the St. Jude in the previous year, and Caves Valley suited long-hitters in 2021. There is a defined pathway for him to enter the top 30, and if he reaches East Lake, he has attained 3rd and 8th place finishes in the past two years.
Most Likely to Disappoint — Keegan Bradley (starting at No. 10): Since the relocation of the first playoff event to Memphis, Bradley has recorded MC, T43, and T59 at the St. Jude. This does not bode favorably for achieving the strong start required in these playoffs to ease the pressure on his Ryder Cup captain’s selections. In the absence of a strong showing in either of the initial two playoff events, the decision on whether to select himself as a playing captain becomes even more challenging.
Following his victory at the Traveler’s Championship, he appeared to be a strong contender for the team; however, Bradley has lost some momentum as others have gained momentum toward the end of the year, presenting him with difficult choices. He has managed to maintain separation between Keegan the player and Keegan the captain, but that will be a near impossibility during these weeks, as captain’s selections are due after the BMW. It seems appropriate that this decision be as agonizing as possible, which would be the case if he struggles during the playoffs.
Player with the Most to Gain or Lose — Collin Morikawa (starting at No. 19): There are three competitors who could realistically fill this position: Morikawa, Spieth, and Bradley. Two of these individuals have already been discussed, so I will refrain from reiterating those points. Morikawa’s performance has been on a downward trajectory as the season ends. He has made multiple caddie changes (with another new caddie this week in Memphis), had disagreements with the media, recorded one top 10 finish since the Masters (T8 at the Rocket Classic), missed his last two cuts, and is now outside the top 6 for an automatic position on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.
For a competitor who appeared promising at the start of the year and was consistently among the most reliable performers on the PGA Tour, Morikawa’s season has been notably disappointing. The playoffs offer a chance to change course. If his struggles persist, his qualification for the Tour Championship will not be guaranteed. While it would be unexpected for him to miss the Ryder Cup team, he is not making a strong case for his inclusion as Bethpage Black approaches.
Nonetheless, Morikawa has three more opportunities to redirect his season and build momentum before the Ryder Cup. He has performed competently at the St. Jude in the past and would have defeated Scheffler at East Lake last year if not for the starting strokes. Currently, there may not be a top player more in need of positivity on the course than Morikawa, and if he cannot find it, the speculation surrounding him will intensify before Bethpage.
Who will emerge victorious at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and which underdogs will shock the golfing community?
