The $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, slated for Saturday, stands as the premier event at Parx Racing, headlining a program of 15 races. The card boasts seven additional stakes races alongside another significant contest: the $1 million Cotillion Stakes, reserved for 3-year-old fillies.
For talented 3-year-olds, the Pennsylvania Derby presents a culminating opportunity to secure a Grade 1 victory in a two-turn race against their peers. The substantial field of 10 was undoubtedly influenced by the absence of leading contenders Sovereignty and Journalism. Specifically, Pennsylvania Derby participants Baeza, Goal Oriented, Gosger, and Magnitude have each achieved top-three finishes behind these two classic victors in Grade 1 competitions.
Explore Pennsylvania Derby trifecta betting strategies from the experts at America’s Best Racing, and utilize ABR’s helpful Gambling Calculator to formulate your wagers.
Mike Curry:
Given the abundant speed anticipated in the Pennsylvania Derby, I am pleased that my trifecta selections have demonstrated effectiveness when racing from off the pace. I am particularly confident in the chances of #8 Baeza, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve/Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and #9 Gosger, the Preakness Stakes runner-up. Their consistent performances against top-tier competition throughout the spring and summer make them standouts in this field. It would surprise me if the winner did not emerge from this pair. I intend to wager against both #3 Magnitude and #6 Goal Oriented in the race, as I believe they may be disadvantaged by a rapid pace and potentially fade in the later stages. Given that I am including two of the three favorites, I will limit my selections. I will finalize my trifecta by incorporating #1 So Sandy, the improving Curlin Stakes runner-up, in the second and third positions. This Omaha Beach colt has delivered two impressive performances (a victory and the Curlin second) at this 1 1/8-mile distance, and appears to have developed this spring under the guidance of trainer Cherie DeVaux.
Strategy for a $20 budget:
$10 trifecta: #8 Baeza and #9 Gosger with #1 So Sandy, #8 Baeza, and #9 Gosger, with #1 So Sandy, #8 Baeza, and #9 Gosger ($40)
Noel Michaels:
The Pennsylvania Derby boasts a closely contested field with several prominent contenders. However, the race strongly suggests a long-awaited Grade 1 breakthrough for #8 Baeza, who notably secured third-place finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Across six races this year, only Sovereignty, Journalism, and Rodriguez managed to defeat him, which is hardly a discredit. With none of these rivals present for this race, Saturday appears to be Baeza’s opportune moment. Another contender consistently nearing victory is #9 Gosger, who finished second to Journalism in both the Preakness Stakes and the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes. A swift pace is highly probable in this race, and Gosger is expected to finish strongly after securing a comfortable stalking position. The question remains: Which version of #3 Magnitude will be on display Saturday? He achieved impressive speed figures with wire-to-wire victories in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and the $250,000 Iowa Derby, but then failed to make an impact in Saratoga’s Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes. If the favorable version of Magnitude emerges, an upset could be in the offing.
Strategy for a $50 budget:
$5 trifecta box: #3 Magnitude, #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger ($30)
$10 trifecta: #8 Baeza with #3 Magnitude and #9 Gosger, with #3 Magnitude and #9 Gosger ($20)
Dan Tordjman:
Despite not having secured a victory since early May, #6 Goal Oriented piqued my interest with his performance in the Haskell Stakes. His third-place finish in that race does not fully reflect the story. Goal Oriented displayed sharp speed from the start, as is typical, and remained close to a very demanding early pace. Nonetheless, he conserved sufficient energy to mount a significant challenge against both #9 Gosger and Journalism (both of whom overtook Goal Oriented in the final strides). While Gosger is returning for the Pennsylvania Derby, I believe Goal Oriented has discovered a new dimension and possesses the potential for further improvement. That being said, here is how I plan to approach the trifecta.
Strategy for a $55 budget:
$5 trifecta: #6 Goal Oriented with #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex ($30)
$1 trifecta: #6 Goal Oriented, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #6 Goal Oriented, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #1 So Sandy, #4 David of Athens, #6 Goal Oriented, #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex ($24)
