2026-27 NBA Central Division Season Preview

As the regular season prepares to launch on October 20, we will examine the current status of every team in the Central Division. Our analysis will cover positive aspects, areas of worry, a key lineup to keep an eye on, and a realistic projection of their final position in the standings.

Let’s jump right into it.

Chicago • Cleveland • Detroit • Indiana • Milwaukee

WHAT WE LIKE: The Progression of Matas Buzelis

Buzelis’s transition to a regular starter last year was highly successful. He registered career-best numbers across almost every metric, and I was particularly impressed by his increased confidence in launching deep shots (jumping from 3.3 to 6.4 attempts), his highly efficient finishing inside the arc (58.3% on two-pointers), and his defensive impact as a weakside shot-blocker (1.5 blocks).

In my opinion, the logical progression for Buzelis involves using his growing scoring threat to create opportunities for teammates. He occasionally misses open teammates on the floor, and there is clear room for quick improvement in his distribution game.

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES

• I find Chicago’s decision to invest in tall, versatile athletes highly intriguing. Caleb Wilson looked exceptionally impressive and dynamic in Summer League play. I am still optimistic about Nic Claxton’s potential if he can avoid injuries; it will be fascinating to see how much of his playmaking facilitator duties from last year transfer to this squad. Meanwhile, Josh Giddey is the standout figure in the guard rotation. His vision and transition play are well-established, but he also made subtle strides in creating shots inside the three-point line last year.

• Norman Powell is poised to be a great asset for the Bulls during his tenure. His combination of perimeter gravity and off-the-dribble drive threat will relieve pressure on Giddey. Expect a heavy dose of rapid-fire screen actions and staggered setups designed for him.

• It is worth pointing out that Tre Jones quietly put together a very solid campaign last season. Do not be shocked to see him anchoring some of Chicago’s most effective units.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY: Can Giddey take a major step forward in half-court offenses?

Though I noted him alongside their big-and-talented roster build, Giddey is going to face intense scrutiny. With the front office seemingly—and thankfully—embracing a genuine rebuilding phase, finding out whether Giddey can function as a foundational star is crucial.

Despite showing progress, he must play with more assertion when the game slows down. His inside game remains heavily reliant on floaters, even though he managed to push those shots slightly closer to the basket last season. His perimeter shooting, especially when creating his own shot, remains an unresolved puzzle. Whether he can hit enough deep shots to stop defenders from sagging off screens remains to be seen.

OTHER AREAS OF WORRY

• I have major reservations about their defensive frontcourt. At its peak, the sheer athleticism and mobility of a Buzelis-Wilson-Claxton front line is enough to make me consider predicting a top-12 defensive ranking for the team. Conversely, I harbor doubts about Wilson or Buzelis tracking perimeter wings, and their relatively thin frames raise concerns about whether they can secure defensive boards to close out possessions in an era dominated by maximizing extra shots. Furthermore, if Claxton struggles with his durability once more, their depth at the five spot looks quite shaky.

• It is easy to picture certain lineups that will put up points with ease. Similarly, other configurations—especially given their summer acquisitions—should be highly capable of stringing together defensive stops. However, finding combinations that excel at both ends will be the true test for newly appointed head coach Tiago Splitter, who did an admirable job under unusual circumstances in Portland last season.

• Is it unfair to list the theoretical outlook of Noa Essengue as a potential worry here?

FEATURED LINEUP: Giddey-Powell-Wilson-Buzelis-Claxton

Whether this unit begins games is uncertain, but it represents the most critical lineup for their immediate and future trajectory. It offers an opportunity to evaluate the chemistry between Wilson and Buzelis while testing how well Powell fits alongside Giddey.

Featuring four athletes standing 6-foot-7 or above, this unit has the potential to switch aggressively or play a highly active defensive style. Generating stops would unlock a highly dynamic fast-break offense. Conversely, opponents might overpower them inside defensively, while sagging off non-shooters to congest the driving lanes on the other end.

OPTIMISTIC OUTCOME: Just missing the play-in tournament while the youth movement shines

I was tempted to make a bold offseason prediction and slot them directly into the play-in tournament, but that would likely require rival teams ahead of them to suffer injuries or perform below expectations. Even so, I can easily see Chicago outperforming defensive projections, generating a fast-paced transition offense that catches opponents off guard.

If Giddey, Powell (fresh off his debut selection), or Buzelis make borderline All-Star bids, the franchise’s direction will look incredibly bright. Pair that with a strong Rookie of the Year campaign from Wilson, and the optimism will skyrocket.

Returning to Giddey: a significant improvement in his mid-range and paint scoring would make his upcoming contract much more palatable, or at the very least, provide the front office with a highly valuable trade asset on a reasonable deal.

PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME: Finishing near the bottom of the conference alongside a stagnant Giddey

The modified draft lottery odds make tanking far less rewarding than it once was. If the team struggles heavily while Giddey fails to show progress, it will be a major disappointment. While not an insurmountable setback, it threatens to drag out their timeline to contention. The fan base in Chicago certainly deserves a better outcome.

WHAT WE LIKE: The Ceiling of Evan Mobley

Mobley’s performance during the 2025-26 campaign didn’t seem to get the credit it deserved. Although the reasons are clear—many fans were anticipating a massive leap to elite superstar status, which instead turned out to be incremental growth—the reality is that he remained a stellar player.

At full strength, he is a constant Defensive Player of the Year threat who is steadily refining his individual offense and playmaking ability when utilized as an offensive focal point. To highlight a key statistic from last season: out of approximately 200 players who operated in at least 200 pick-and-roll plays, he led everyone in points generated per possession, standing alone with a rate exceeding 1.2 PPP.

If a supposedly subpar year for Mobley still yields averages of 18 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks on nearly 60% true shooting alongside elite defense, followed by a stellar postseason display, expectations should remain incredibly high. Let’s not forget he is just 25 years old!

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES

• We are about to witness the first complete season of the James Harden and Donovan Mitchell partnership in the backcourt. Harden remains a highly effective scorer and elite distributor. This configuration should theoretically allow Mitchell to thrive as an off-ball threat on the weak side. Mitchell enters the season following yet another All-NBA selection, and Cleveland posted an offensive rating of 126.7 when both shared the court last season.

• Peyton Watson’s arrival is highly anticipated. While critics can debate his starting run in Denver last season, his combination of elite athleticism, scoring potential, and defensive adaptability—including impressive shot-blocking instincts—is incredibly promising. His utilization on both ends of the floor will be fascinating to watch.

• Due to summer departures, Craig Porter Jr. (and potentially Tyrese Proctor) will see an expanded role this season. Longtime readers of my work know that I will support an unorthodox, skilled player until it is absolutely proven they cannot compete at this level. CPJ brings a unique, highly effective style to the court, and he should flourish given steady rotation minutes and confidence from the coaching staff.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY: The defensive viability of the Harden-Mitchell guard duo

While it may seem like a predictable issue to raise, it is entirely legitimate. Quite apart from overall efficiency, the team must use the regular season to test what defensive schemes they can realistically run with this pairing.

In what scenarios and against which players will they elect to switch? Under what circumstances will they utilize a hedge-and-recover strategy? To what extent can they implement cross-matching, and how will those adjustments impact the other defenders on the floor?

In truth, these queries apply more to Mitchell than to Harden. At this point in his career, Harden’s defensive profile is well-established; he relies on physical strength and active hands while avoiding high-volume screen navigation whenever possible. Although he still needs to show focus and energy, his structural role is clear.

Mitchell, however, remains the wildcard. He possesses the lateral speed and exceptional reach to execute various defensive schemes. Given his typical defensive assignments, his off-ball awareness and activity should be vastly superior to what he currently shows. Cleveland requires a far more steady effort from him defensively.

OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN

• Although I am personally optimistic about the development of young bench options like CPJ and Jaylon Tyson, they have transitioned from luxury assets to critical rotation pieces. Given Cleveland’s tight salary cap and apron constraints, the front office has very little room to adjust if these players fail to perform.

• Speaking of the bench: despite Thomas Bryant’s excellent interior positioning and high energy levels, any long-term injury to Jarrett Allen would be a massive crisis for this team.

• As discussed on our recent podcast with the Chase Down crew, I am highly interested to see how Kenny Atkinson adapts his strategies based on past experiences. I hold his coaching abilities in high regard, a sentiment dating back to his tenure in Brooklyn. However, there is a delicate balance between tactical experimentation and over-tinkering to the point where the squad loses its identity. He faces some pivotal decisions this year, and I look forward to his execution.

LINEUP OF INTEREST: Harden-Mitchell-Watson-Mobley-Allen

I considered highlighting a small-ball unit with Mobley playing center—such as a dynamic group featuring Harden, Sam Merrill, Tyson, Watson, and Mobley—but focusing on the anticipated starting five is the logical starting point. Combining the elite playmaking of Harden and Mitchell, the dominant interior defense of Mobley and Allen, and the versatile two-way talent of Watson, this group has the potential to rank among the league’s absolute best.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Securing the Top Seed

It might sound overly optimistic, but if Cleveland can secure 60 appearances from their core four of Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen, they should easily win at least two-thirds of those contests. This core projects as a top-10 force on both offense and defense. Should Watson successfully plug the gaps at small forward and the secondary unit holds its own, the wins will pile up. My primary concerns, health aside, pertain almost entirely to their postseason execution.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Settling for the Play-In

The competitive depth of the Eastern Conference is immense, with a dozen teams entering the season believing they can contend for at least a play-in position, if not a direct playoff berth. If Cleveland faces key absences to veteran anchors like Harden or Allen, their floor drops significantly. Furthermore, if opposing defenses successfully neutralize their offense through switching schemes, the Cavs’ scoring efficiency could stall. Combine these hurdles with their guard defense vulnerabilities and a tough conference, and a lower-than-expected finish is entirely possible.

WHAT WE LIKE: Cade Cunningham

A fully unlocked Cade Cunningham who is eager to launch off-the-dribble three-pointers to supplement his continuous progress attacking the rim (and his stellar knack for drawing contact) represents:

3. [consults data] A legitimate MVP contender and potential All-NBA First Team selection

Cunningham’s overall performance last year was remarkable, particularly considering it was one of his least efficient shooting seasons when catching and firing. His mastery of the pick-and-roll reached new heights as he integrated fresh dimensions to his offensive approach. Furthermore, his defensive commitment remained commendable despite carrying a heavy offensive burden within highly congested spacing configurations.

An absolute star.

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES

• Ausar Thompson quickly proved to be perhaps the premier perimeter defender in the NBA, trailing only Wembanyama in overall defensive impact. This lockdown defense, paired with his fast-break execution, linking playmaking, off-ball cuts, and relentless offensive rebounding, earned him a massive financial commitment. Watching his offensive game expand will be thrilling, and his defensive intensity is always a joy to witness.

• I am arguably the biggest advocate for Isaiah Joe. He ranks among the absolute best perimeter marksmen in basketball and has steadily developed into a respectable defender. His integration alongside Duncan Robinson should bring excellent strategic synergy, opening up massive spacing for Cunningham and company when they share court time.

• One key factor in Isaiah Stewart’s departure is the sheer competence of Paul Reed. His value to the rotation has climbed significantly, and his minutes could spike even higher depending on other frontcourt developments—I am thrilled to see him take on this opportunity.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY: Jalen Duren

In all honesty, why has this situation lingered for this duration?

(This is a rhetorical inquiry. The saga has played out so publicly that even as an outside observer, it has been exhausting to follow. This serves as another reminder that while restricted free agency aims to protect teams, it is fundamentally flawed.)

Though his initial playoff experience was highly inconsistent, it serves as a necessary developmental hurdle. Nevertheless, he is coming off a breakout All-Star and All-NBA season where he made strides in creating his own offense and anchoring the defense—while still short of elite status, his progress is highly promising. One hopes both parties find common ground and mended fences soon.

OTHER AREAS OF WORRY

• Though it is an ongoing issue, the lack of proven playmakers outside of Cunningham is a concern. It will be interesting to see how much ball-handling duty Thompson receives. I have some moderate curiosity regarding Ebuka Okorie. While Daniss Jenkins was a fun story last season, relying on him as a rotation necessity rather than a luxury is far from ideal.

• Along those lines, swapping Tobias Harris for John Collins raises questions regarding perimeter shooting volume and floor-spacing variety. Many observers seem to undervalue the immense stability Harris provided on offense last season.

FEATURED LINEUP: Cunningham-Joe-Robinson-Thompson-Collins

This configuration offers the optimal floor spacing for Cunningham to operate while providing enough secondary defense to support Collins in small-ball center roles. Theoretically, this unit possesses high adaptability across both offense and defense.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Retaining the Top Seed

Coming off a 60-win season with their primary catalysts (Cunningham and Thompson) locked in and continuing to mature, the foundation is strong. Even if their defense regresses slightly from elite to above-average, the added shooting should optimize their half-court execution. A path remains for them to comfortably hold onto the East’s top spot.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Falling to the Play-In

The overall strength of the conference could easily push Detroit down into the play-in bracket. If their half-court execution stalls—particularly if opponents switch heavily against them or if Thompson’s perimeter shooting remains a liability—coupled with any defensive decline, they could see a noticeable drop in the standings.

WHAT WE LIKE: The Return of Tyrese Haliburton

Our last memory of Haliburton features him dissecting the championship-winning Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. More than anything, it is fantastic to see one of the NBA’s premier young talents back on the hardwood after recovering from a major injury setback.

In terms of on-court value, his masterclass distribution, off-the-dribble shot creation, and aggressive driving make him one of the most dynamic assets in the league. Indiana struggled immensely in his absence, illustrating just how indispensable he is.

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES

• I have always appreciated Ivica Zubac’s game, and watching him spend a full season alongside a healthy Haliburton is highly intriguing. At his best, he approaches All-NBA caliber impact, serving as a physical force on both backboards. Notably, statistical records show Indiana hasn’t cracked the top ten in offensive rebounding since 2021-22, or defensive rebounding since 2014-15. His presence should immediately address these long-standing weaknesses.

• Having Haliburton back will significantly ease the playmaking expectations placed on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. Regarding Nembhard, the trial-by-fire experience he received as a primary initiator last year could yield great dividends now that defensive focus shifts back to Haliburton.

• Some quick thoughts on the reserve unit: Kelly Oubre fits this roster style perfectly, and landing Zubac allows Jay Huff to transition from being an emergency starter replacement to operating as a highly effective, specialized backup playing limited, focused minutes. That is a far more realistic and exciting role for him.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY: Haliburton’s conditioning and return timeline

My concern is not about his ability to return to form, as I am confident he will reach his peak. Instead, I wonder if his initial adjustment period and the process of building on-court chemistry with Zubac might lead to a slow start, perhaps hovering around .500 early on in a highly competitive conference.

During his integration, I will closely monitor the volume and efficiency of his rim attacks. My co-host Steve Jones drew a parallel to Jayson Tatum’s recovery last season, noting it took some time for him to regain his confidence driving to the cup. Indiana relies heavily on that downhill threat to power the fast-paced offense that secured their Finals run.

OTHER AREAS OF WORRY

• This is more of a tactical question: I am curious about their defensive identity going forward. Their most successful defensive stretches featured high-pressure, aggressive schemes on ball screens with Myles Turner. How much of that style can they preserve given the roster changes and the inclusion of Zubac?

• Echoing my earlier point, their defensive rebounding and interior presence could become highly vulnerable during the minutes Zubac rests.

• Additionally, I have subtle reservations about their overall three-point threat compared to other elite teams in the East. Aside from Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith, there are few high-volume shooters I trust completely.

LINEUP OF INTEREST: Haliburton-Nembhard-Nesmith-Siakam-Zubac

This projects as their primary starting lineup, and it should yield positive results. I will be tracking the pick-and-roll synergy between Haliburton and Zubac early on, along with how they manage their transition tempos, though I have faith they will sync up. Furthermore, having Siakam operate as a help defender alongside Zubac protecting the paint is an exciting defensive wrinkle.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: A Top-Four Seed

Do not discount the chance that Haliburton hits the ground running, Siakam earns yet another All-Star nod, and Zubac inserts himself into All-Defense and All-Star consideration. If Nembhard excels with a lighter offensive load while recapturing his lockdown defense, backed by an entertaining bench unit, this team could surprise many who are overlooking them.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Falling Out of the Playoff Picture

However, Haliburton’s availability and form are absolutely paramount. He remains the sole playmaker capable of breaking down defenses and making the correct reads. If he is compromised, their competitive margin disappears rapidly in what promises to be a grueling Eastern Conference battle.

WHAT WE LIKE: Milwaukee’s Youth Movement

I have a stronger fascination with the Bucks’ young developmental roster than perhaps is warranted.

My hope is that the coaching staff immediately finds playing time for Brayden Burries, whose self-creation and handling stood out during Summer League. Kasparas Jakučionis showed remarkable shooting efficiency in his brief stint with Miami last season, combined with a fearless pick-and-roll playstyle that I find highly appealing.

Meanwhile, Jaime Jaquez Jr. put together a campaign that deserved serious Sixth Man of the Year consideration, assuming voters ignored play-in statistics which are officially excluded from regular-season evaluation. As for Ousmane Dieng, if you gave up on his potential recently, I have happily bought up all remaining stock in his future.

Ke’lel Ware remains an incredibly gifted frontcourt prospect who could reach All-Star heights if he matches his motor with his talent. I am also eager to watch Nate Ament and understand why draft experts hold such conflicting views on his outlook. At a minimum, this season will be highly informative regarding their young core.

ADDITIONAL POSITIVES

• Regarding the coaching: I have long respected Taylor Jenkins’ system and believe he can find creative solutions with this roster. He may experiment with dynamic three-guard lineups to pressure opponents. Crucially, I am keen to see how he manages his partnership with former All-Star Tyler Herro.

• Furthermore, Ryan Rollins’ impressive production—posting lines of 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists on stellar true shooting—has flown under the radar. During stretches where Giannis missed time early on, Rollins performed so capably that opposing defenses began prioritizing him in their schemes. While he needs to improve his ball-handling against physical pressure, he has proven himself to be a highly promising young guard.

• To be clear, losing Giannis Antetokounmpo is a massive blow. He is an all-time great, arguably among the top three figures in franchise history, and holds immense cultural significance in Milwaukee. Those contributions cannot and should not be minimized. However, if there is a minor positive to take away, it is the resolution of the constant speculation regarding his future. The team has officially turned the page to a fresh chapter.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY: Gary Trent Jr.’s contract Managing the rotation and trade assets

Individually, Milwaukee features several intriguing, skilled wing players. However, their guard and wing rotation is undeniably crowded. In the immediate term, Jenkins faces the challenge of managing minutes and finding the right combinations on a nightly basis.

While it is simple to suggest that a major trade to consolidate talent is necessary, opposing front offices are likely aware of Milwaukee’s roster logjam. This dynamic could weaken the Bucks’ position in negotiations.

OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN

• In all seriousness, committing that level of salary after his recent performance remains baffling.

• While their frontcourt is less crowded, we might see experimental lineups featuring both Ware and Turner on the floor. How that dynamic will function on either end is highly unpredictable.

• If Kyle Kuzma projects as their premier perimeter defender, that points to a structural roster issue that needs immediate attention.

LINEUP OF INTEREST: Rollins-Burries-Dieng-JJJ-Ware

As indicated by my previous positive callouts, this represents the young unit I am most eager to see. The combination of dynamic drives and perimeter shot-making should make for highly entertaining, developmental basketball.

OPTIMISTIC OUTCOME: Missing the playoffs while draft picks and youth excel

A successful season would involve Burries and Ament demonstrating real promise, significant development from their young acquisitions like Ware or Jaquez, and Herro either establishing himself as a reliable All-Star or raising his trade value enough to yield a strong return from a suitor.

They would also benefit greatly from trading high-salary veterans like Turner, the expiring contract of Kuzma, or Trent Jr. to balance the roster and gather future assets.

PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME: Missing the postseason without development from the young core

The worst outcome would be the reverse: concluding the season without establishing any clear cornerstone prospects, seeing minimal progress from their young players, and failing to extract value from their veteran contracts on the trade market.