The Big Ten conference has not secured an NCAA men’s basketball title in over two decades, with their last victory dating back to the year 2000. Nevertheless, as the tournament progresses to the Sweet 16 round, they boast more surviving teams than any other conference.
The initial weekend of the NCAA tournament proved highly successful for the Big Ten. A conference-record six of its member institutions successfully moved on to the Sweet 16. This notable achievement included Iowa’s stunning upset victory over top-seeded Florida on Sunday. Furthermore, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue are ranked among the top six contenders in the betting odds to claim the NCAA tournament championship, with Michigan considered the primary frontrunner. Overall, the Big Ten remains in an advantageous position as the second weekend of competition approaches.
Below are the predictions for the Sweet 16 matchups, with all betting lines provided by BetMGM:
Purdue (-7.5) over Texas
Despite boasting an athletic department generating over $330 million in revenue, the Texas Longhorns have emerged as the surprise underdog story of the 2026 NCAA tournament. This development challenges common complaints about the tournament lacking unexpected upsets.
While Texas stands as the lowest-ranked squad remaining in the competition according to KenPom.com, they are far from a typical No. 11 seed. This season, the Longhorns secured nine victories against Quad 1 opponents. Though they faced difficulties late in their regular season, including a disappointing loss to Ole Miss in their initial SEC tournament contest, Texas has since rallied, commencing their impressive tournament run with a First Four triumph. Nevertheless, their primary challenge lies in their defensive capabilities when pitted against Purdue’s offense, which holds the top ranking on KenPom. Texas’ defensive unit ranked outside the top 80 nationally. While Texas has enjoyed a commendable journey, it is likely to conclude against a Boilermakers team that has found its peak performance at a crucial juncture.
The top-ranked Purdue offense, as per KenPom, is set to encounter a Texas defense that has demonstrated inconsistency throughout the current season. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
(Jamie Squire via Getty Images)
Iowa (+1.5) over Nebraska
When this contest commences, it will more closely resemble a Big Ten tournament clash rather than a Sweet 16 matchup. It is widely known that Nebraska had not secured a single NCAA tournament victory prior to the current year. Iowa, meanwhile, had not reached the Sweet 16 round since the turn of the century. These two programs faced each other twice earlier in the season; Iowa claimed a five-point home victory, then suffered an overtime defeat while visiting Nebraska. The Hawkeyes’ triumph against Florida stands out as the most surprising outcome in an otherwise predictable tournament, and they have demonstrated strong form in the latter part of the season. Since February 25th, their record is 4-4, but their four defeats were all narrow, by margins of 2, 3, 9 (in overtime), and 3 points respectively. Iowa’s strategic approach to overcome Florida has garnered coach Ben McCollum deserved recognition for his tactical prowess. Although Nebraska has enjoyed an excellent season, we predict Iowa will continue its momentum.
Arkansas (+8.5) over Arizona
Arizona has displayed remarkable performance, successfully covering the spread in both of their initial tournament games, with their only two defeats coming on the road against Kansas and in an overtime contest against Texas Tech. However, Arkansas possesses ample talent, especially with guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is projected to be a future NBA lottery selection. The Razorbacks also boast significant physical size. Any squad featuring one of the sport’s elite players and a top-five offensive unit, attributes that Arkansas possesses, has a legitimate chance to keep a tournament game competitive within a substantial point spread. This holds true even when facing a team potentially recognized as the finest in college basketball for the current season.
Illinois (+3.5) over Houston
This encounter could very well be the premier game of the Sweet 16 round. The Illini were contenders for a No. 2 seed, but four overtime defeats ultimately cost them that position. Houston secured its No. 2 seeding and is widely regarded as one of college basketball’s elite programs. The Cougars’ dominant start to the tournament, featuring consecutive 31-point victories, serves as a powerful reminder of their championship aspirations. The core of this clash will be Illinois’ second-ranked offense (per KenPom) facing off against Houston’s fourth-ranked defense (per KenPom). Given that Illinois belongs to a comparable caliber as Houston, the point spread appears somewhat elevated for what is anticipated to be a closely contested game.
St. John’s (+6.5) over Duke
Duke advanced past the opening weekend, securing a dominant victory over TCU following a challenging encounter with 16th-seeded Siena, yet the Blue Devils continue to contend with player injuries. Post player Patrick Ngongba made a comeback in the second round but was limited to only 13 minutes of action. Guard Caleb Foster was sidelined for the initial weekend of competition, and although Duke remains hopeful for his return from a fractured foot, it’s improbable he would be at full strength even if he is cleared to play. Duke remains an exceptional squad and could potentially beat this point spread despite two starters battling injuries; however, this situation provides a St. John’s team, which has compiled 21 wins in its last 22 games, a stronger opportunity to maintain a tight contest.
Michigan (-10.5) over Alabama
When Alabama’s shooting is accurate, the Crimson Tide can deliver dominant showings, such as their 25-point victory on Sunday over a capable Texas Tech squad. Similarly, Michigan has demonstrated the ability to overwhelmingly defeat any opponent. Alabama encountered difficulties against certain teams operating at a similar competitive level to Michigan. They suffered significant defeats to No. 1 seeds, falling to Arizona by 21 points and to Florida by 23 points. While it’s daunting to bet against a team with Alabama’s rapid scoring ability, Michigan’s overall performance is quite formidable.
Michigan State (+1.5) over UConn
UConn eventually distanced themselves from UCLA in their second-round game, yet the Huskies’ play still doesn’t appear as sharp as it did earlier in the campaign. Notably, guard Solo Ball is enduring a significant shooting slump, failing to score any points against UCLA. Extensive tournament advancements by Michigan State are a common occurrence in March, and this Spartans roster features an exceptional point guard in Jeremy Fears. The Big Ten conference is experiencing a strong tournament performance, a trend that could persist should the Spartans advance further.
Tennessee (+4.5) over Iowa State
The availability of Iowa State’s star player, Joshua Jefferson, who sustained an ankle injury in the opening round, carries immense significance. While the Cyclones did not seem to suffer from Jefferson’s absence during their dominant second-round victory over Kentucky, consistently compensating for a player ranked second in KenPom.com’s national Player of the Year standings presents a considerable challenge. Tennessee’s performance has been inconsistent throughout the season, but they displayed strong form during the initial weekend of tournament play. Should Jefferson be unable to participate, or if his capabilities are severely restricted, the Volunteers are unlikely to suffer a decisive defeat akin to Kentucky’s.
