PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — The premier tournament of the current PGA Tour season is scheduled for this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, with 123 players competing at TPC Sawgrass for the 2026 Players Championship. Unlike recent years where Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy dominated this major PGA Tour competition, this installment appears to offer a different dynamic.
The top-ranked player globally hasn’t maintained his usual dominant form in recent tournaments; initial struggles in opening rounds have raised questions about Scheffler’s ball striking. He was observed experimenting with various new driver heads during practice at TPC Sawgrass, seeking solutions as he aims for his third Players victory in four seasons.
Nevertheless, Scheffler is at least practicing, while McIlroy declared on Monday that the recurring back issue which led to his withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational is keeping him off the course as the event nears. McIlroy’s participation is uncertain, potentially jeopardizing his attempt to be the second player to win the Players Championship in consecutive years.
Such uncertainties create a significant opportunity for another competitor to step forward and secure the coveted award. Collin Morikawa might mirror McIlroy’s 2025 success, capturing titles at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass prior to the commencement of the major season. Young talents under 26, including Chris Gotterup, Jacob Bridgeman, Akshay Bhatia, and Ludvig Åberg, are making a strong impact on the tour.
Former major winners such as Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Justin Rose are looking to solidify their game or mental approach before the competition starts, while players like Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Russell Henley are steadily improving their performance.
What can we expect this week in Ponte Vedra Beach? Here’s an extensive collection of forecasts and selections from our CBS Sports specialists.
Expert Predictions and Selections for the 2026 Players Championship
Betting odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, Golf Correspondent
Champion — Russell Henley (30-1): Winners of the Players Championship over the past five years have consistently been ranked within the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings, a testament to their elite status. Although Henley’s demeanor might not fit this mold, his playing ability certainly does. Ranked sixth globally, he recently defended his position at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, securing a tied-for-sixth place, and completed the weekend without a single bogey.
Dark Horse — Ryan Gerard (70-1): Over the last quarter, Gerard ranks eighth in overall strokes gained, sixth in strokes gained approaching the green, and is among the top 25 for strokes gained tee to green. He consistently performs well, though his putting often holds him back. TPC Sawgrass is a venue where his strong tee-to-green play should enable him to compete. Should his putting also improve, he possesses the self-assurance to claim the most significant title of his professional journey.
Guaranteed Top 10 — Collin Morikawa: Currently, few golfers worldwide exude more confidence. Morikawa comes into the Players Championship fresh off a victory at Pebble Beach, complemented by top-10 placements at Riviera and Bay Hill. The challenging course environment will highlight the two-time major winner’s abilities. His recent performances demonstrate that even with an average short game, he possesses the talent to consistently appear among the top contenders.
High-Profile Player Unlikely to Win — Rory McIlroy: It’s a difficult assessment, but his delayed arrival to the course is concerning. McIlroy’s history with Florida courses has been inconsistent, although his performance last year at this championship was positive. Prior to that, he hadn’t secured a top-10 finish at The Players since his triumph in 2019.
Unexpected Forecast — Four of the world’s top 10 golfers fail to make the cut: Several uncertainties are currently affecting golf’s elite. Scheffler’s iron performance hasn’t been exceptional. McIlroy is dealing with a back ailment upon arrival. Rose’s form has declined since his Torrey Pines victory. Gotterup is competing in only his second championship. Robert MacIntyre and Xander Schauffele are both struggling to find their peak form. The possibility of four high-ranked players exiting early isn’t entirely far-fetched.
Lowest Score for a Round: 66 (-6)
Overall Winning Score: 276 (-12)
Champion’s Final Round Score: 70 (-2)
Robby Kalland, Golf Journalist
Champion — Si Woo Kim (22-1): Kim possesses an excellent record at TPC Sawgrass, including a victory in 2017, and his iron play at the start of this season is unmatched on the PGA Tour. He is averaging almost 1.2 strokes gained per round on approach shots over 25 rounds this year, a leading figure among players with more than four rounds. His performance off the tee has also been strong (ranking 20th in strokes gained), and I consider Kim to be in the best current form for the critical aspects of play at TPC Sawgrass.
Dark Horse — Pierceson Coody (100-1): Coody, recognized as one of the tour’s top young ball-strikers, displays inconsistent putting, but his strength from tee to green is expected to generate numerous scoring opportunities, potentially positioning him as a contender by the weekend. Whether his putter becomes hot enough for a serious challenge remains to be seen, but his consistent play off the tee (8th in strokes gained) and with his irons (34th) suggests his style is well-suited for TPC Sawgrass.
Guaranteed Top 10 — Collin Morikawa: On the topic of ball-strikers, Morikawa is currently on par with Kim in terms of superior ball-striking. His creative play, essential for Sawgrass, has returned, and he appears to have overcome any mental blocks regarding his swing. Expect him to be prominently featured on the leaderboard for the duration of the tournament.
High-Profile Player Unlikely to Win — Ludvig Åberg (22-1): While he performed admirably last week at Bay Hill, Åberg’s aggressive style of play is still too uninhibited for a victory at The Players. TPC Sawgrass demands a calculated approach, understanding when to be assertive and when to be cautious, a trait Åberg has yet to consistently demonstrate. He might achieve a remarkable single round when in prime form, but he lacks the consistency over four rounds required to triumph at Sawgrass at this stage.
Unexpected Forecast — Scottie Scheffler misses the top 10: The two-time Players champion has recently appeared uncharacteristically vulnerable, especially concerning his iron game. Scheffler’s current ranking of 88th in strokes gained approaching the green is astonishing, given his dominance in this area over the last five years. TPC Sawgrass is an unsuitable venue for troubleshooting iron issues, and the precise distance control that defined his strong performances has been absent this season.
Lowest Score for a Round: 64 (-8)
Overall Winning Score: 273 (-15)
Champion’s Final Round Score: 69 (-3)
Adam Silverstein, Executive Editorial Director
Champion — Collin Morikawa (15-1): Morikawa’s betting odds have decreased as the competition approaches, and for valid reasons. He is currently striking the ball exceptionally well, demonstrating improved and more reliable accuracy compared to previous years. The uncertainty isn’t if Morikawa will be a contender—he’s a straightforward choice for a top 10 finish this week—but rather if he can secure his second title of the nascent season. If Morikawa triumphs at TPC Sawgrass, mirroring McIlroy’s early 2025 achievements, it could pave the way for an extraordinarily successful year.
Dark Horse — Rickie Fowler (45-1): Fowler’s current performance seems too strong for such extended odds, particularly for a former champion of this event (in 2015) who has shown excellent iron play this season. While it’s a significant challenge for him to overcome this competitive field, I favor him considerably over other players with comparable odds, such as Brooks Koepka and Shane Lowry.
Guaranteed Top 10 — Scottie Scheffler: The recent dip in performance must conclude. How much longer will this player struggle? And by “struggle,” we refer only to finishes outside the top 10, such as his recent top 20 and top 30 placements. Agreed, Scheffler’s consecutive impressive runs have concluded. He may have lost some of his initial season momentum. However, is it truly conceivable that he won’t regain his form, especially at a course where he has previously won twice?
High-Profile Player Unlikely to Win — Rory McIlroy (18-1): While this choice might seem obvious, McIlroy holds the third-lowest odds and is the world’s second-ranked golfer. He has been managing back spasms for the past five days, which evidently continue to affect him, judging by his strained movements while hitting irons at TPC Sawgrass following his delayed arrival. There’s a chance he won’t even tee off. Should he begin the tournament, a withdrawal on Thursday or Friday is more probable than him finishing all 72 holes, let alone winning.
Unexpected Forecast — Russell Henley fails to contend: Henley, considered one of the two most in-form players entering this event, has recently displayed exceptional golf. The issue is his less-than-stellar record on this specific course, having missed the cut twice in his last five appearances and never placing higher than tied for 13th. His last five opening rounds include scores of 72, 73, 72, and 75.
Lowest Score for a Round: 65 (-7)
Overall Winning Score: 274 (-14)
Champion’s Final Round Score: 69 (-3)
