The Southwest Stakes may not have yielded a Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve victor in 2025, as it did in 2024 with Mystik Dan, but with its impressive seven-figure prize, it’s understandable that the 1 1/16-mile event, now rescheduled for Friday, February 6th, drew a full roster of 14 competitors. A total of 42 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby are also at stake, distributed among the top five finishers as 20-10-6-4-2.
1. Reclamation: Secured his inaugural career win on January 3rd in his second start. He has never participated in a race extending beyond six furlongs, and his winning speed rating was moderate, making this contest seem ambitious for him.
JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez; TRAINER: Christopher Davis
2. D’code: Achieved a dominant victory in his Oaklawn Park debut over six furlongs on December 14th, posting a dazzling speed figure. His performance over two turns is a question mark, but he is expected to lead for as long as he can maintain position.
JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: Ray Ashford Jr.
3. Buetane: One of two entries from the stable of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who holds a record six triumphs in this race. Buetane encountered some difficulty while chasing a rapid pace, ultimately finishing second in the San Vicente, but possesses the capability to be a contender.
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
4. Rancho Santa Fe: Underperformed in the Smarty Jones Stakes here on January 3rd, ending up in fifth place at 2.90-1 odds. He will need to make a substantial leap forward in this race, but securing reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat is a positive indicator.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Brad Cox
5. Litmus Test: Has traveled across the nation and acquitted himself admirably. He finished a close fourth in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance and then captured the Los Alamitos Futurity in a swift time in his most recent outing. He appears to be the one to overcome.
JOCKEY: Juan Hernandez; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
6. Circle Tap: Required five starts to achieve his initial win, though it came in his first attempt around two turns. He has yet to demonstrate the ability to post a speed figure quick enough to be a factor in this competition.
JOCKEY: Ricardo Santana Jr.; TRAINER: Dallas Stewart
7. Liberty National: Rallied strongly to claim second place in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds over this distance. His time was good, and he should benefit from a brisk early pace.
JOCKEY: Brian J. Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Ken McPeek
8. Spirit of Royal: Took six races to secure his first victory. The speed figure from that win was too low to consider him a serious contender in this specific event.
JOCKEY: Francisco Arrieta; TRAINER: Dallas Stewart
9. Strategic Risk: Prevailed in the Smarty Jones Stakes here while tracking a moderate pace. This Florida-bred should be able to position himself just behind the leaders and accelerate effectively when prompted. He looks like a key participant.
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Mark Casse
10. Bricklin: Made little impact in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, then returned on January 3rd for a sharp, front-running triumph in an allowance race at Oaklawn. He is expected to face considerable early competition and might experience a rebound effect after his strong recent performance.
JOCKEY: Jaime Torres; TRAINER: Rodolphe Brisset
11. Silent Tactic: Rallied to secure second place behind his stablemate Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones. He should be aided by the prospect of a quicker pace here as he makes his second start on a dirt track.
JOCKEY: Cristian Torres; TRAINER: Mark Casse
12. Baytown Dreamer: Did not exhibit much late acceleration when finishing third amidst the slow pace in the Smarty Jones. He was an 84.30-1 longshot that day but could be worth considering for exotic wagers here.
JOCKEY: Orlando Bocachica; TRAINER: Paul McEntee
13. Soldier N Diplomat: Showed early speed in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and led at the eighth pole before weakening to third. He has been training well but might need to overcome a wide trip from this starting gate.
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
14. Sleepingonfreedom: Finished an even fourth in the Smarty Jones. The outermost post position in a field of 14 horses does not improve his prospects of advancing further.
PREDICTED WINNER: Litmus Test
PROMISING UNDERDOG: Silent Tactic
SUPERFECTA COMBINATION: 5-11-9-2
