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Ryan O’Hanlon
The prior year, the situation was less than ideal.
Upon first attempting to categorize America’s promising young talents a few years ago, the outlook appeared very strong. In that initial assessment, individuals like Joe Scally, Gio Reyna, Malik Tillman, Ricardo Pepi, and Yunus Musah were all featured.
Subsequently, as these players matured, no new talent emerged to fill the void. When those players were active contenders, my highest category for this under-21 ranking was designated “USMNT standouts — and potential European stars.” However, by the previous year, this category was vacant. My second grouping, “Peripheral USMNT starters, mid-level European professionals,” also contained no entries! The first individual to appear, marking the beginning of the third category, was Kevin Paredes, who has seen very limited professional match action since the article’s publication.
Significant shifts can occur within a year, both positively and negatively. Has this been the case? Have any leading new prospects surfaced? Or will the premier two categories remain unpopulated for a consecutive year? Despite the U.S. men’s national team discontinuing its January training sessions — which usually offered an opportunity for less prominent players to gain recognition and was the impetus for this January compilation — it’s time to re-evaluate the most promising athletes aged 21 or under in the present talent pool.
Tier 1: USMNT stars — and potentially European stars, too
1. Noahkai Banks, 19, centerback, Augsburg
The majority of talent scouts focus on a player’s inherent abilities — specifically, which competencies suggest future success at a higher echelon. While I wouldn’t dismiss the significance of these “tools,” I contend that accurately discerning them poses a considerable challenge at the youth stage, given that the competitive environment and physical demands diverge so dramatically from what is encountered in Europe’s top five major leagues. Furthermore, even once a player’s “skill set” is identified, comprehending how these attributes will translate effectively to the elite level remains exceptionally complex.
Predicting with certainty how established senior players will fare when transitioning between different leagues, or even between clubs within the same league, is something no one has truly mastered. The leap from youth football to professional ranks represents an even more substantial transition.
Consequently, I refrain from presenting a roster of 16-year-old footballers who might become the next USMNT sensation, simply because until an athlete commences regular participation in senior professional matches, the spectrum of potential developments is too broad to warrant such an endeavor. While numerous Americans are integrated into the youth academies of prominent global clubs, and a few of these will probably evolve into consistent USMNT contributors, the probability of any single one of them reaching USMNT or European star status is quite modest.
My primary focus, instead, is on athletes who demonstrate the key indicator of future achievement: accumulating significant professional playing time at a high standard while still young. Currently, one American fits this description: Noahkai Banks from Augsburg. This 19-year-old central defender has already logged 1257 minutes in the Bundesliga, whereas no other American under 21 has participated for even 300 minutes in a major European league. Across all players in Europe’s Big Five leagues, not just those from the U.S., a mere eight individuals aged 18 or younger at the season’s outset have accumulated more playing time than Banks.
Furthermore, the following are the sole American players who had registered greater minutes in a Big Five league by the conclusion of their 18th year than Banks has achieved to date:
• Christian Pulisic
• Yunus Musah
• Gio Reyna
• Joe Scally
• Weston McKennie
Should he maintain his present rate of play, Banks is projected to conclude the season with more minutes than every player on that list except Pulisic, Musah, and Reyna. This achievement is particularly noteworthy as he operates in a role where players typically reach their prime later in their careers.
Augsburg currently sits only two points above the Bundesliga’s relegation places, yet their performance has been notably superior whenever Banks is on the pitch. I would not be surprised if he secures a spot on the World Cup squad, nor if he actually sees playing time during the tournament.
Tier 2: Fringe USMNT starters, mid-tier European pros
2. Alex Freeman, 21, fullback, Orlando City
At American Soccer Analysis, a refined iteration of Stats Perform’s expected possession value model is employed. This system attributes positive value to players’ actions with the ball that elevate their team’s goal-scoring prospects, and also recognizes contributions from receiving passes and defensive plays that mitigate the likelihood of conceding goals.
According to this framework, termed Goals Added (G+), Alex Freeman recently concluded the most outstanding season for an MLS fullback since 2012, marking the full extent of the available G+ data.
Stated differently: it is plausible to contend that Freeman represents the finest fullback in MLS history, and his 22nd birthday won’t occur until following the World Cup. It is highly probable that he will be competing in one of Europe’s premier five leagues by this time next year.
The question then arises: why was he absent from last year’s compilation? He had accumulated a mere 11 professional minutes prior to the most recent season. Forecasting player progression is indeed a formidable task.
Tier 3: Can they make it in Europe?
3. Caleb Wiley, fullback, 21, Chelsea
4. Damion Downs, forward, 21, Hamburg
5. Cole Campbell, winger, 19, Hoffenheim
6. Benjamin Cremaschi, midfielder, 20, Parma
All these athletes appear less compelling than certain individuals slated for the subsequent category. However, despite MLS’s significant advancements, transitioning from competing against Real Salt Lake to facing Real Sociedad, Real Betis, and Real Madrid remains an immense challenge. Therefore, I prioritize players who have already ventured to Europe, even if their progress there has largely stagnated.
Caleb Wiley saw considerable playing time in MLS during his teenage years, though he never approached the performance standard recently demonstrated by Freeman. Furthermore, it’s concerning that Chelsea sent him on loan to Watford instead of their unofficial feeder club, Strasbourg. It’s equally troubling that his loan was terminated prematurely, bringing him back to Stamford Bridge this month. It is improbable he will feature significantly, if at all, for the remainder of the current campaign.
Damion Downs inked a deal with Southampton during the summer, subsequently seeing limited action in the Championship, and has now returned to the Bundesliga on loan with Hamburg. Among American players aged 21 and under, only Wiley and Banks have accumulated more career minutes in a major European league than Downs – though his total stands at just 251. Having started his initial match back with Hamburg last week, that figure is expected to grow.
Cole Campbell occupies the fourth spot on the list of Big Five league minutes with a mere 36 minutes. Admittedly, he is only 19 and is affiliated with a significantly more prominent parent club than the other individuals mentioned. His loan spell to Hoffenheim for the remainder of this season will determine if he gains further playing opportunities.
Benjamin Cremaschi secured the Golden Boot at the Under-20 World Cup last autumn, yet he has registered just 19 minutes of play and successfully completed three passes in total since his summer transfer to Parma.
Tier 4: OK fine, this 16-year-old makes the list
7. Cavan Sullivan, attacking midfielder, 16, Philadelphia Union
In the prior year, I opted not to include Cavan Sullivan in this ranking due to the minimal relationship observed between excelling as a 15-year-old footballer and becoming a top 24-year-old professional. Indeed, studies in youth development strongly indicate that athletes who diversify their skills later in their growth generally achieve greater ultimate potential, whereas those who reach their peak in a single activity during adolescence often experience a leveling off in performance.
This assertion doesn’t preclude Sullivan from becoming a standout player, but rather emphasizes that substantial transformations are anticipated over the forthcoming five years, let alone a decade.
However, since our previous evaluation, Sullivan has featured in 11 matches for one of MLS’s more competent squads. Within the entirety of the Stats Perform database, only one player aged 16 or under, Jeremy Monga of Leicester City, has accumulated more professional minutes than Sullivan’s 449.
Tier 5: Young goalkeepers at big clubs who never play
8. Gaga Slonina, goalkeeper, 21, Chelsea
9. Diego Kochen, goalkeeper, 19, Barcelona
Gaga Slonina’s most recent league appearance dates back to October 22, 2024. As for Diego Kochen’s last league appearance — that was a jest, as he still awaits his debut professional minute.
Concurrently, evaluating goalkeepers within the same timeframe as field players presents more difficulty, given that only one occupies the position per game.
Slonina gained significant playing experience in MLS prior to his transfer to Chelsea at age 18, subsequently acquiring numerous minutes during an 18-month loan spell with Belgian club Eupen and later with Barnsley in England’s second tier. He remains only 21, an age considerably younger than the typical starting goalkeepers found in the Big Five leagues and other major competitions.
Kochen, on the other hand, received frequent inclusions in Barcelona’s matchday rosters, which holds a certain value, but this has not occurred even once this season. Nevertheless, at 19, he is still far from the age when most goalkeepers typically establish themselves as starters in a prominent European league.
It is conceivable that both could eventually become starting goalkeepers in the Champions League; conversely, it’s also possible that neither will ever significantly contribute to the USMNT. For these reasons, I am placing them both squarely in the mid-range of these rankings.
Tier 6: Can they make the leap?
10. Rokas Pukstas, midfielder, 21, Hadjuk Split
11. Quinn Sullivan, winger, 21, Philadelphia Union
12. Luca Bombino, fullback, 19, San Diego FC
13. Peyton Miller, fullback, 18, New England Revolution
14. Zavier Gozo, winger, 18, Real Salt Lake
15. Joshua Wynder, centerback, 20, Benfica
Rokas Pukstas appears to be at a critical juncture, on the cusp of something significant. For the past few years, he has accumulated valuable playing time for a respectable team known for its strong youth development program. He might transition to a top-tier European league, find himself in the Eredivisie or the Belgian Pro League, or ultimately return to MLS. Any of these outcomes would not be unexpected.
Quinn Sullivan holds the highest career goal and assist tally among all players qualifying for this compilation. Regrettably, he sustained an ACL tear in September.
Furthermore, Luca Bombino, Peyton Miller, Zavier Gozo, and Joshua Wynder were all participants in the Under-20 World Cup squad.
I position Bombino at the top of this group primarily because young players who effectively advance the ball forward often develop into proficient professionals; last season, he registered in the 93rd percentile for progressive passes among MLS fullbacks. Miller is less advanced in age, possesses greater athleticism, and has amassed more career minutes than Bombino. Gozo saw considerable action as an attacking player during his 17-year-old season in MLS. Wynder, despite his lack of playing time with Benfica, would almost certainly have accumulated extensive minutes as a central defender in MLS had he not transferred to Portugal two years ago, having already logged nearly 3,000 minutes in the USL before reaching 19.
Consistent with previous years, this category concludes with a significantly more subjective boundary than the others. Numerous additional players could readily belong to this collection but are omitted due to the annual limitation of 15 entries. Indeed, this grouping (if extended) possesses a higher probability of yielding a USMNT starter than either our third or fourth tiers, although the majority of players within this category will not progress as far as those in the third or fourth tiers have.
Such is the unpredictable nature of youth player progression: While no foundational aspects of the sport itself alter, the composition of this roster invariably undergoes revision annually.
