2026 Women’s NCAA: 6 Cinderellas Poised to Ruin March Madness

Unexpected outcomes frequently disrupt NCAA tournament predictions each season. These surprises are a regular feature in the women’s competition; one merely needs to know where to seek them out.

While teams seeded 14th through 16th collectively hold a historical record of just one victory against 372 losses — with 16th-seeded Harvard famously conquering top-seeded Stanford in 1998 — 13th seeds, and more commonly 12th seeds, have often introduced an element of unpredictability to March Madness.

In eight of the last twelve tournaments, at least one 12th-seeded team has triumphed in a game, and since the expansion of the field in 1994, 12th seeds have secured 31 wins, according to the NCAA.

Essentially, teams positioned at 12th seed or higher are certainly equipped to embody the role of a “Cinderella.” And, it’s possible that a team seeded even lower could make a significant impact this year.

Presented below are six teams that possess the potential to cause major upsets in your bracket:

Princeton

Seed: 9

Record: (26-3, 12-2 Ivy League)

First round vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State (Regional 2 – Sacramento)

Since the middle of December, the Tigers have consistently maintained a position within the AP Top 25. Carla Berube, in her sixth year as head coach, has now guided Princeton to five consecutive appearances in the NCAA tournament. This streak would extend to six if the competition hadn’t been canceled in 2020 due to the global pandemic. At that time, in the 2019-20 season, the Tigers boasted a 26-1 record, reaching as high as 21st in the AP Poll. Their solitary defeat that year was in overtime against an Iowa squad featuring nascent talents Gabbie Marshall and Kate Martin.

Princeton may have sustained three losses in the current campaign, yet they have climbed as high as 19th in the AP Poll. The Tigers secured a victory over a Villanova team with 25 wins on November 12, followed by a defeat of American Conference regular-season champions Rice a week later. Prior to commencing Ivy League play, the Tigers also notched wins against A-10 champions Rhode Island, Seton Hall, and a George Mason team that achieved 23 victories. Apart from an early-season loss to then-9th ranked Maryland, Princeton’s only other two defeats were at the hands of a Columbia team that finished with 20 wins.

This season’s Tigers roster features five players who are scoring in double figures on average. Madison St. Rose leads this distinguished group with 15.7 points per game, while both Fadima Tall (13.2 ppg) and Skye Belker (12.8 ppg) are shooting above 36% from beyond the arc. This collective offensive power is a primary reason why Princeton ranks 35th nationally in offensive rating (108.7), as reported by Her Hoop Stats. Coach Berube’s Tigers have advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament on two occasions. Perhaps the program’s inaugural Sweet 16 appearance could materialize this year.

Fairfield

Seed: 11

Record: (28-4, 19-1 MAAC)

First round vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (Regional 1 – Fort Worth)

There is a definite advantage for highly successful mid-major institutions when they finally break through in the NCAA tournament, unleashing a degree of pandemonium. Only eight teams seeded 13th or lower have secured a first-round victory on the women’s side, according to the NCAA, and seven of these eight were automatic qualifiers who generally (1) dominated their conference competitions and (2) possessed prior NCAA tournament experience or would soon make successive appearances.

Despite Fairfield being an 11th seed this year, their track record is reminiscent of those teams known for achieving upsets. The Stags were a 13th seed in 2024 and a 12th seed in 2025. They were defeated in the first round both times, first by Indiana and then by Kansas State, and neither contest was particularly close. However, Fairfield has an impressive combined record of 58-2 in MAAC play since the commencement of the 2023-24 season. They have appeared in the AP Top 25 in two of these three seasons, including the current one, which began with them upsetting Villanova on November 5, defeating a South Florida team with 20 wins eight days later, and then, in December, overcoming a top A-10 team, Richmond, which returned three of its top-four scorers from the squad that achieved the program’s first NCAA tournament victory last season and is now participating in the First Four.

Throughout this journey, coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis’s squad competed closely against North Carolina and Iowa. Both the Tar Heels and Hawkeyes were ranked 11th at the time of these matchups. Fairfield established multi-possession leads through the opening quarter in both instances. The Stags’ performance dipped in the second quarter against UNC and Iowa, but that was the only period that significantly distinguished the teams in those encounters. Spearheaded by junior guard Kaety L’Amoreaux (17.6 ppg) and junior forward Meghan Andersen (16 ppg), Fairfield ranks within the top 40 for both offensive rating (108.3) and defensive rating (82.6), as per Her Hoop Stats. Moreover, the Stags are exceptional shooters. They have converted 14 or more 3-pointers in ten games this season.

Murray State

Seed: 12

Record: (31-3, 19-1 MVC)

First round vs. No. 5 Maryland (Regional 1 – Fort Worth)

Similar to Fairfield, Murray State experienced a significant loss in last year’s NCAA tournament. Nevertheless, the Racers have returned and are performing even more strongly this season. Two of their top three scorers from the 2024-25 team, which ended the program’s 16-season March Madness drought, have provided substantial offensive power this year. Junior guard Halli Poock ranks 11th nationally with 22.1 points per game, and her classmate and backcourt partner, Haven Ford, is contributing 17.1 points per game. Murray State has also received a boost from Indiana transfer Sharnecce Currie-Jelks, who began her career by earning OVC Freshman of the Year accolades at UT Martin and is now making a notable impact in the Racers’ frontcourt with 17.9 points and 11.7 rebounds per contest. She leads the nation with 25 double-doubles this season.

Appropriately, coach Rechelle Turner’s team is adept at maintaining a fast tempo. They are among the nation’s leaders in this aspect for the third consecutive season, according to Her Hoop Stats. Much like Princeton, Murray State’s primary strength is its offense. The Racers may not possess the non-conference strength of schedule seen in some other teams on this list, but they, too, defeated a formidable George Mason team before achieving a 19-1 record in Missouri Valley Conference action. This marks their best conference record to date, and perhaps this momentum can propel them to multiple victories in the NCAA tournament.

South Dakota State

Seed: 11

Record: (27-6, 14-2 Summit)

First round vs. No. 6 Washington (Regional 4 – Sacramento)

The Jackrabbits have consistently been on the verge of another Sweet 16 berth. They fit the Cinderella profile because they are a less prominent mid-major, yet followers of the program are well-versed in its history. South Dakota State claimed a Division II national championship before transitioning to D-I.

Aaron Johnston was the team’s coach back then, and he remains at the helm today. He possesses a deep understanding of what it takes to secure victories in NCAA tournament contests. The Jackrabbits have won a game in the national dance in two of the last three seasons. Last year, they overcame Oklahoma State before encountering a national championship-bound UConn team. Two years prior, they upset USC before falling to a Virginia Tech squad that proceeded to the Final Four.

In the current season, South Dakota State experienced a loss in a Summit League game for the first time since the 2021-22 campaign, but the Jackrabbits still triumphed in the conference tournament and concluded the season with a 27-6 record. Another highly productive offensive team, they are spearheaded by senior forward Brooklyn Meyer. She is ranked 10th nationally, averaging 22.4 points per game.

Colorado State

Seed: 12

Record: (27-7, 15-5 Mountain West)

First round vs. No. 5 Michigan State (Regional 4 – Sacramento)

Colorado State is currently enjoying a nine-game winning streak that extended into the Mountain West tournament, which Ryun Williams’s team won for the first time since 2016. That marked the last occasion the Rams participated in the national tournament, and now they are back in the field.

CSU is not an offensive powerhouse. The Rams have exceeded 75 points on only five occasions this season. They rank in the bottom third nationally in terms of pace, according to Her Hoop Stats, but this also contributes to their allowance of just 54.9 points per game, which is the seventh fewest nationally.

CSU demonstrates solidity on the defensive end of the court, where it has recorded the 63rd-best defensive rating (87.2) in the country and the 17th-highest defensive rebounding rate (74.7%), as per Her Hoop Stats. Three players on the team—Lexus Bargesser, Brooke Carlson, and Hannah Ronsiek—are averaging at least one steal per game. These also happen to be three of the group’s top-five leading scorers. Bargesser, a senior guard, spearheads the offense with 15.2 points per game and boasts a 40.7% shooting accuracy from beyond the arc. No team manages the ball with greater care than CSU, as evidenced by its 10.4 turnovers per game, the lowest in D-I. The Rams also rank within the top 25 in free-throw percentage. These two factors alone can make a crucial difference in the NCAA tournament.

Rhode Island

Seed: 11

Record: (28-4, 16-2 A-10)

First round vs. No. 6 Alabama (Regional 3 – Fort Worth)

There is another Rams team that boasts an even more remarkable winning streak. That would be URI, which accumulated 17 consecutive victories between December 3 and February 14. This propelled the Rams to an undefeated 14-0 start in A-10 play. They concluded the regular season tied with George Mason at the top of the conference standings. Subsequently, they defeated George Mason in the A-10 championship game. This is how URI secured its berth in its first NCAA tournament in 30 years. When the Rams last participated in 1996, Linda Ziemke was the head coach. Now, Tammi Reiss holds the reins of the program, and she has guided URI to a program-best 28 wins, a benchmark she has helped reset three times during her seven-year tenure.

One of those 2025-26 victories came against then-16th ranked North Carolina State. The Rams’ only other win against a ranked opponent occurred on December 3, 2023, according to the Associated Press, when they triumphed over Princeton at home. However, their victory against N.C. State was notably achieved on the road.

It is difficult to predict what to expect from URI in the NCAA tournament. They have not been there in three decades. And while they have some commendable victories to their name, their inconsistent results against a First Four team like Richmond introduce an element of uncertainty. The Rams defeated the Spiders by double digits on December 30 and then lost to the Spiders by double digits on February 25. Regardless, it is easy to envision URI generating some March magic. Five Rams players are averaging at least nine points per game. Senior guard Brooklyn Gray (12.5 ppg), a transfer from Saint Louis, leads this scoring contingent. Similar to CSU, URI intends to control the game’s pace and deploy strong defense. Only five teams are conceding fewer points per game (53.8) than the Rams.