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Bill Connelly
In recent memory, the ninth week of the college football schedule has often been a turning point, halting surprising surges from unexpected contenders or, at the very least, significantly impeding their progress.
Consider the instances like unranked Wisconsin overpowering No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State shocking No. 12 Kentucky, and Michigan State stunning No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or the unranked Louisville team taking down No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon dominating No. 13 Utah in 2023, and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas concluding last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt chapter. Before we even reach November, which is typically filled with the most memorable moments of the season, there seems to be a need for a sorting-out process.
This week, this might signify challenges ahead for Texas A&M, with its highest ranking in three decades, as they face a determined LSU in Baton Rouge, or for the undefeated BYU squad as they play at Iowa State. But how will the college football landscape be refined this year? Which unforeseen challenger will falter when No. 10 Vanderbilt welcomes No. 15 Missouri? How will an ACC competition featuring five to seven teams, none of whom were favored initially, be clarified?
The 2025 season has defied expectations, and as we move towards November, it remains to be seen if order can be established. Here’s your guide to following a busy Week 9.
Another significant SEC triple header
While a rematch between Alabama and Georgia for the SEC title is a strong possibility, there might still be some surprises in store. Week 9 will give us clarity on which teams could capitalize on any unexpected turns, as the conference provides another triple header of compelling games.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Tiger Stadium is famously a difficult venue for visiting teams, especially at night. The home side has won the last eight meetings in this series (six by comfortable margins), and LSU is seeking redemption after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s primary objective might be ensuring his undefeated Aggies maintain focus amidst the intense atmosphere.
The subsequent challenge is to score points. While the Aggies have consistently scored well this season, LSU boasts the sixth-best defense in SP+ rankings and has not conceded more than 10 points in any home game so far. The Tigers are stronger against the pass than the run, which could pose problems for A&M, even without the injured Le’Veon Moss, considering their average of 6.2 yards per rush against Arkansas last week. However, on third-and-3 or longer, Marcel Reed and the Aggies have only a 23.5% conversion rate, placing them 129th nationally. The crowd noise at Tiger Stadium can be deafening on third downs.
LSU’s offense has displayed signs of progress. Despite limited contributions from leading receiver Aaron Anderson, the Tigers gained 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, although red zone failures kept the scores down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a difficult matchup, and LSU finally ran the ball effectively against Vanderbilt. This team could become formidable if Garrett Nussmeier can connect on a few deep passes, but that remains to be seen.
Nussmeier has remarkably completed just 1 of 16 passes thrown over 25 yards downfield this season. Lacking easy scores from long plays and struggling in the red zone makes it challenging to score touchdowns.
A&M is ranked third nationally, but the stakes are higher for LSU, both due to their diminished playoff chances and the increasing pressure on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies win in this environment, they will establish themselves as legitimate contenders for the SEC and possibly the national title.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6
No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky dominated the line of scrimmage, holding Vanderbilt to just 151 total yards and gaining just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to win 14-0. The Commodores dropped out of the AP top 10 and did not return for 78 years. Now, they are ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” this Saturday.
Both Missouri and Vanderbilt have only lost to Alabama, and one of them will be 7-1 heading into November, with serious aspirations for the SEC and the playoffs. If Missouri wins, it will likely be in the style of Bear Bryant’s Kentucky, achieved through dominance at the line of scrimmage. Ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II are crucial to a Missouri defense ranked seventh in success rate*, and after struggling to establish Ahmad Hardy and the run game against Alabama and Auburn, Missouri could find relief against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks only 62nd in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks). Although Vanderbilt excels at preventing big plays, Missouri will have chances to create efficient plays for quarterback Beau Pribula.
Missouri needs to do this because Vanderbilt’s offense is among the most efficient: The Commodores rank first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in college football. While the passing game isn’t especially explosive, Vanderbilt is exceptionally difficult to disrupt.
(* Success rate: The frequency with which an offense gains 50% of needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third and fourth downs.)
Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3
No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)
From a standpoint of importance and contrasting styles, Ole Miss’ first visit to Norman stands out as one of the week’s most fascinating contests. Similar to Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will solidify their position in the SEC race and improve their playoff prospects. Strengths will clash with strengths, and weaknesses with weaknesses.
Ole Miss offense: 12th in points per drive
Oklahoma defense: second in points per drive
Oklahoma offense: 65th in points per drive
Ole Miss defense: 70th in points per drive
Oklahoma fields the most aggressive defense in college football, with opponents gaining zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of plays, which is the highest rate in the nation. However, Ole Miss presents the most formidable offense the Sooners have encountered this season. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels recently scored 35 points against a Georgia defense that had been conceding an average of 17 points per game. While Chambliss’ second and third receiving options (Deuce Alexander and tight end Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. are usually adept at creating successful strategies.
Of course, Ole Miss also gave up 43 points to the Bulldogs. The Rebels struggle against the run, but Oklahoma has not established a strong ground game. Oklahoma’s strength lies in its passing game, but Ole Miss is competent in that area (despite a weak pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged only 4.5 yards per dropback since returning from a hand injury.
Considering Ole Miss’ late struggles against Georgia and Oklahoma’s recent offensive performances, I could see this game turning into a blowout for either side.
Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3
Who Remains Undefeated?
There are currently only six undefeated teams left: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU, and Navy. The Buckeyes have a week off, and we’ve covered A&M above, so here’s what awaits the other perfect teams.
UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (noon, Fox)
Can UCLA pull off another upset? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have derailed Penn State’s season (and possibly James Franklin’s tenure), further damaged Michigan State’s, and accelerated Maryland’s October collapse. Now, they face Curt Cignetti’s excellent Indiana Hoosiers.
The Bruins have revived their season by generating negative plays and turnovers on defense, and by running the ball effectively with backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II, and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to compensate for his susceptibility to sacks (He’s also practicing this week after being injured against Maryland last Saturday.)
However, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense, and defends the run aggressively while sacking quarterbacks at an elite rate (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this challenge well, although it’s fair to wonder what Indiana doesn’t do well? What weaknesses might the Hoosiers have between now and a potential showdown with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?
Statistically, I can identify only two potential areas of concern.
1. The Hoosiers are surprisingly poor on fourth downs. They’ve only converted 3 of 11 attempts this season. While this would be a greater problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), it’s still notable.
2. They sometimes overcommit up front. They lead the nation in stuff rate (stopping runs at or behind the line), but when they allow a successful rush, it tends to be a significant gain. Big plays are holding them back slightly.
It’s hard to criticize a defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed per drive, but big plays are often responsible for upsets.
Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4
No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Not long ago, Iowa State was 5-0, with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, as well as a decisive victory against Arizona. However, after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a lack of pass rush, the Cyclones conceded too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also struggled in Boulder, turning 441 yards into only 17 points.)
What do you do when your undefeated season is ruined? Try to ruin someone else’s! After a week off, ISU is surprisingly favored at home against undefeated BYU. The Cougars have already navigated a few close Big 12 games. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a less efficient but more explosive passer, and is contributing to the run game. Can ISU make enough stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense keep pace in a high-scoring game?
Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2
Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)
Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his last two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU, and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense is not exceptional but is probably good enough to contain Syracuse’s struggling offense.
Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best Syracuse has faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would benefit the Yellow Jackets to win this game comfortably, allowing Haynes King to avoid excessive running and unnecessary hits.
Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7
Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)
FAU presents a unique challenge. Zach Kittley’s Owls attempt fourth-down conversions more than half the time, operate at the nation’s second-fastest pace, and seek big plays. Unfortunately, they also rank 120th in success rate and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressive approach often fails to produce points (or provide their defense with rest), and they’ve lost four games by an average of 27 points. Blake Horvath and Navy are expected to be underdogs in each of their last four games against North Texas, Notre Dame, USF, and Memphis, but they should advance to 8-0 here.
Current line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1
Two Old Big Ten Rivalries (and Great Trophies)
The Big Ten is known for its trophies, as well as its numerous teams with 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams hold a 5-2 record, and any that can win out and finish 10-2 will be in contention for the CFP.
This weekend features two of the sport’s best trophy games, involving three members of the 5-2 club.
Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It’s hard to top the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been battling over for 90 years. Iowa has possessed it for nine of the past 10 years.
Iowa is the projected favorite, due to home-field advantage and their ability to run and defend the run. They rank 17th in rushing success rate, a significant improvement from recent years, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski passed for only 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Additionally, Iowa is allowing only 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.
While the ground game can be decisive in an Iowa-Minnesota game, Minnesota relies heavily on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s passing arm, and he has performed well despite an ineffective ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also impressive last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, with Lindsey completing 16 of 20 passes, and Darius Taylor rushing for 148 yards in a 24-6 win.
Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7
No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a valuable prize in a series that has seen significant shifts in momentum. Michigan State won eight of 10 games between 2008 and 2017, including one of the most memorable endings of the 21st century, but Michigan has won five of the last seven.
Both teams need this win. Michigan’s dominant 24-7 victory over Washington last week sets up a scenario where the Wolverines are 9-2 and on a five-game winning streak when Ohio State comes to town.
Michigan State, on the other hand, simply needs something positive. The Spartans have lost four straight games, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles showed early promise, but the Spartans’ offensive efficiency has declined. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is starting to appear on “hot seat” lists, and although that seems unreasonable, given his program-building expertise, this will almost certainly be State’s fourth consecutive losing season.
Current line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6
This Week in the Group of 5
Memphis’ unexpected loss to UAB last week has created uncertainty in both the American title race and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot, and at first glance, USF seems well-positioned to capitalize. These teams will face each other this weekend. It’s the clear G5 game of the week, but I’ve also identified another interesting game to watch.
No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (noon, ESPN2)
USF leaves no room for doubt. Besides their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their only loss (to Miami) by a score of 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is incredibly explosive and, thanks to quarterback Byrum Brown’s running ability, excellent on third downs. After an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are now ranked 57th.
If last week’s loss was merely an aberration for Memphis, the Tigers should have plenty to offer, especially at home. They begin and end drives effectively (eighth in three-and-out rate, third in red zone TD rate), and while their pass rush is problematic, they control the line of scrimmage against the run and force third-and-longs. They have an immediate chance to correct last week’s mistakes and reclaim their place at the top of the conference.
Current line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1
San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
If you’re looking for playoff possibilities outside of the American, consider San Diego State. Since defeating Cal 34-0, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won four straight games, outperforming SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. They remain inconsistent, scoring 34 or more points in four games and under 14 in two, and allowing 7.4 points per game in wins and 36 in their lone loss. Corner Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s best playmakers, and if they can score enough against a solid Fresno State defense, their chances of reaching 11-1 improve significantly.
Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7
It’s Dakota Marker Time!
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)
South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and over 20 players, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State also lost some key players, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can significantly impact teams, even at the FCS level.
Oh right, almost forgot: NDSU and SDSU have a combined record of 14-0 this season.
SDSU’s stats have declined slightly, although quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the pass defense remains strong, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven games. However, NDSU has established a level of dominance not seen from the Bison in a while. The defending FCS champions have outscored opponents by an average of 44-10, and only one opponent has stayed within 27 points. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing similar stats to Mason, and the receiving trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson, and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based on their current SP+ rating, the Bison would rank in the top 40 of FBS.
We’ve seen impressive performances from programs like Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), but until proven otherwise, these remain FCS’ defining programs. For the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-vs-2 battle. The No. 2 team won both previous games, and an upset by SDSU at home would not be surprising. However, it would still be an upset, as the Bison have performed at a higher level thus far.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9
Week 9 Chaos Superfecta
This space is again dedicated to willing chaos into existence by examining four carefully selected games with significant point spreads and combining them into a more upset-friendly scenario. After ending a three-week losing streak with two correct picks last week, we’re now 4-4 for the year.
This week, our focus is on the Big 12. SP+ estimates only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia), and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!
Week 9 Playlist
Here are more games to watch if you want to maximize your weekend, from both informational and entertainment perspectives.
Friday Evening
California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After recent turmoil, Cal’s 5-2 record is a positive development. However, the Golden Bears have achieved this by defeating only one team ranked higher than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is ranked 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.
Current line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6
Early Saturday
Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). This is the most stylistically interesting game in the SEC this week. In conference play, Auburn games have averaged 32.8 total points, while Arkansas games have averaged 76.0. It’s as if the two teams are playing different sports, though both are struggling. (Combined SEC record: 0-7)
Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2
Northwestern at Nebraska (noon, FS1). Something has clicked for Northwestern, as the Wildcats have won four straight and have overachieved against SP+ projections by 19.6 points per game over the past three. Nebraska is favored for a reason, but Matt Rhule’s Huskers struggled in last week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s defense is as good as the Gophers’.
Current line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2
Kansas State at Kansas (noon, TNT). Kansas State’s last three games have been its best of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the other sideline tends to bring out the Wildcats’ best, as they haven’t lost the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas had a week off to recover from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; how will the Jayhawks’ season progress from here?
Current line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7
No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (noon, ACCN). UVA narrowly avoided losing to Washington State at home last week, while UNC traveled across the country and played its best game of 2025. It’s possible that Bill Belichick’s Heels could surprise. Still, UVA’s offense is so clean, with few negative plays and efficiency through both run and pass, that the Cavaliers have the benefit of the doubt.
Current line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9
SMU at Wake Forest (noon, The CW). These teams went a combined 4-4 in September but are 5-0 in October. Wake fields a strong defense with a very boom-or-bust offense, and SMU’s defense has improved after a slow start. The Mustangs need this win for ACC contention, but Jake Dickert has Wake moving in an exciting direction.
Current line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8
Saturday Afternoon
No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged just 12.3 points per game against top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 against defenses ranked 85th or lower. Illinois’ defense is in the middle (48th), so we can expect the Huskies to score around 30 points? Illinois can likely reach that mark against a shaky but improving Washington defense. This should be entertaining.
Current line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9
No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a significant home loss, South Carolina turned around its 2024 season by nearly upsetting Alabama in Tuscaloosa and then winning six straight. The circumstances are worse for the Gamecocks this time, with last week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropping them to 3-4, but could they turn things around again? Will Alabama experience a letdown after four consecutive wins against ranked teams? Possibly? I’m not convinced.
Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7
Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor is always entertaining, with five of their seven games exceeding 60 total points, and ranking 19th in offensive SP+ and 98th in defense. Cincinnati is comfortable in high-scoring games, and their bend-don’t-break defense has improved lately. With games against Utah and BYU on the horizon, Cincinnati’s Big 12 title hopes would suffer with an upset loss.
Current line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5
No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, but two losses went down to the wire. So did Texas’ frustrating overtime win at Kentucky last week. The MSU offense is losing momentum, but the Texas offense hasn’t found any. The strong Texas defense likely secures another win, but this could be close for a while.
Current line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5
Western
