Greetings and welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Victors, your premier source for weekend recommendations and strategic insights from seasoned handicapper and tournament-play innovator Noel Michaels. Be sure to return each week for a selection of curated choices crafted to assist you in securing successful wagers and accumulating earnings. Noel’s predictions have appeared in almost every location where horse racing selections are offered, such as in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine, and American Turf Monthly, as well as online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com, and USRacing.com. They have also been featured from the paddock at Arlington International Racecourse, on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s Talking Horses, and on television channels like WAVE-3 in Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and Long Island Cablevision’s channel 72.
Six Foundational Betting Resources
- Commence with simplicity using a straightforward guide detailing how to wager on horse racing.
- Uncertain of a specific term? Horse racing parlance is a distinctive dialect. Allow us to provide clarification.
- What precisely is a velocity assessment? This introductory manual to pace assessments contains all essential information.
- Engaging in horse racing wagers can be daunting. Team ABR has compiled a set of guidelines for newcomers entering the world of racing wagers.
- Errors are common when wagering on horse racing; here are eight insights derived from practical experience.
- Ascertain the projected expense of each wager in advance utilizing our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.
Saturday, July 26
The third weekend of the 2025 Saratoga summer schedule is highlighted by the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun, which drew Sovereignty, the victor of two-thirds of the Triple Crown events held this spring. The race winner and other distinguished participants are anticipated to proceed to the DraftKings Travers Stakes next month, set to be the most eagerly awaited contest of the season. The other prominent event on Saturday at Saratoga is the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes Presented by Surfside, designed for 3-year-old fillies competing on the turf. For this weekend’s anticipated victors, our emphasis will be on generating profits from these two Saturday stakes races at Saratoga. We extend our best wishes for your success.
Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, $175,000 Lake George Stakes Presented by Surfside, 5:04 p.m. ET
The Grade 3 Lake George Stakes, spanning 1 1/16 miles on the turf, has attracted a lineup of 10 three-year-old fillies, along with one entrant designated for the main track only. This race presents considerable intrigue as the fillies originate from diverse stakes races across various tracks, providing an opportunity to assess their relative competitiveness. #5 Classic Q enters this race following a victory in Saratoga’s $150,000 Wild Applause Stakes, where she outperformed two Chad Brown-trained horses also competing in this event – #4 Lavender Disaster and #10 Play With Fire. Both Brown-trained entries remain viable contenders; however, they face the same predicament as before, with Classic Q potentially securing an early lead, dictating the tempo, and sustaining control throughout the race. Upon evaluating the field, a scarcity of pace to challenge Classic Q is once again apparent. Under these conditions, Classic Q appears poised to replicate her success. The primary consideration for Classic Q lies in the increased distance of 1 1/16 miles compared to the one-mile race previously. Will this factor enable an upset? The possibility exists, particularly if longshots such as #6 Princess Attitude and #9 Good Long Cry advance to apply pressure on the pace. Lavender Disaster may also contribute to this effort, thereby enhancing Play With Fire’s prospects of reversing the outcome against Classic Q. Outside the primary contenders, a potentially noteworthy longshot emerges in the form of #1 Reining Flowers. This will mark her third appearance of the year, and she is yet to fully demonstrate her capabilities in her two prior outings as a three-year-old, initially in a race diverted from the turf and subsequently on a very soft turf course at Penn National. Her performance at Saratoga last summer was commendable, securing a maiden victory and then finishing a close third with a compromised trip in the P.G. Johnson Stakes. Jockey John Velazquez, who has piloted this horse across various terrains, maintains confidence in her, retaining the mount with morning line odds of 15-1.
The Play: Place a win wager on #1 Reining Flowers (15-1) and include her in exacta and trifecta box wagers alongside #5 Classic Q (2-1) and #10 Play With Fire (4-1).
Saratoga Race Course, Race 10, $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes presented by Mohegan Sun, post time 5:41 p.m. ET
The weekend’s most anticipated race is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, featuring a compact yet formidable field of five three-year-olds, headlined by #5 Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. He is considered the horse to beat at 2-5 odds. Unlike other closers in the field, including notable competitors like #2 Sandman and #4 Hill Road, Sovereignty has already exhibited the talent to display tactical speed when required, as demonstrated by his closer proximity to the pace and subsequent victory in the Belmont Stakes. This capability is particularly relevant in this race, given the absence of any significant pace among the other entrants, save for #3 Mo Plex, who led from wire to wire to secure victory in this spring’s seven-furlong Bay Shore Stakes and followed up with a win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month. Mo Plex possesses a tactical advantage as the sole speed, potentially leading to an upset victory or at least securing a position in the exacta. It is advisable to include both in a boxed wager to maximize potential returns if Mo Plex manages to prevail.
The Play: Place a win wager on #5 Sovereignty (2-5) and include him in an exacta box with #3 Mo Plex.
