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Jeremy Fowler
The opening week is complete, and the most notable aspect of the initial week is its propensity to lead us toward making extensive, premature judgments regarding teams’ prospects. Roughly a half-dozen teams appear set for a victorious journey to Levi’s Stadium on February 8 for Super Bowl LX. Another half-dozen seem to require a comprehensive rebuild. Your preferred player is either on track for NFL accolades or the sidelines, with minimal room for ambiguity.
In reality, much of this lacks genuine validity. It’s only the first week. How else might one account for the fact that Saquon Barkley, who nearly established a new NFL rushing record in the preceding season, amassed a mere 60 rushing yards against a below-average Dallas run defense last Thursday? The route to the postseason rarely unfolds predictably.
What is unequivocally true, however, is that championships demand exceptional performances from key players.
This is where our involvement becomes crucial, as we task executives and scouts with determining who will be holding the trophies at the conclusion of the 2025 season. From the Most Valuable Player award to the Rookie of the Year and top coach honors, there’s seldom universal agreement on the major awards, creating the possibility of a few unexpected outcomes.
Jump to:
MVP | OPOY | DPOY | OROY | DROY
Comebacks | Breakouts | Top coach
Achieving a third MVP title would place Jackson among an elite cadre of quarterbacks, including Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, and Johnny Unitas.
He came close to accomplishing this last season, but Buffalo’s Josh Allen surpassed him in the voting. Fittingly, Allen recorded 424 total yards (30 rushing) and four total touchdowns (two rushing) against Jackson’s Ravens at home on Sunday. Jackson contributed three touchdowns (one rushing), along with 209 passing yards on 19 attempts—27 fewer than Allen—and 70 rushing yards.
Although Allen presented a strong initial argument for consecutive wins—”he’s the ultimate game-changer,” remarked an NFL personnel evaluator after the game—Jackson is expected to be in contention due to several factors. His dual-threat capabilities typically maintain a high touchdown count, he consistently secures victories (career win percentage of .736), and he minimizes turnovers, averaging approximately one interception every three games since 2024.
Additionally, he’s coming off his inaugural 4,000-yard passing season, a promising indication for his rapport with offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
“His supporting cast is exceptionally strong, and he’s demonstrating improvement from the pocket,” noted an AFC executive. “Performing better in crucial January games will invariably be the key factor for him, but I believe it’s only a matter of time.”
His multiple turnovers in last season’s divisional-round defeat to Buffalo continue to sting, but during the regular season, Jackson consistently delivers elite-level production.
Also receiving votes: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
This award typically favors players who are not quarterbacks. Since Patrick Mahomes’ victory in 2018, a receiver or running back has secured the last six OPOY awards.
However, league insiders are inclined to acknowledge Daniels’ merits when considering individual honors. Some hesitate to definitively place him in the MVP conversation, which Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes have dominated since 2022.
Nevertheless, a crucial criterion for such voting is the extent to which a player elevates their team and fosters belief. Few individuals are achieving this to the same degree as Daniels recently.
“The combination of throwing talent, running prowess, and the addition of another underneath RAC threat [Deebo Samuel] will keep him in the mix,” commented an AFC executive. “I believe there was a strong argument for him as MVP last year, considering the turnaround he orchestrated and his exceptional performance. I’m anticipating another significant leap forward in Year 2.”
Daniels’ understated influence was evident during Sunday’s home game against the Giants. Despite modest passing statistics (19-of-30, 233 yards, one touchdown), Daniels connected with at least two passes to five different receivers, including seven completions for 77 yards to Samuel on a team-high 10 targets.
Also receiving votes: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens), Mahomes, Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles), Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals), Burrow, Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II remains a strong contender for this award, following his victory in 2024. He closely rivaled Garrett in the voting. Denver’s defense ranks among the league’s finest, with Surtain serving as its linchpin—a true lockdown corner.
However, pass rushers typically dominate this award, and presently, no pass rusher is more formidable than Garrett. Prioritizing the neutralization of Garrett was central to the Bengals’ game plan on Sunday, yet he still managed to record 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, and 3 quarterback hits.
Garrett’s relentless drive positions him to achieve a fifth consecutive season with at least 14 sacks. In the previous season, Garrett topped the NFL in tackles for loss (22), earning him back-to-back All-Pro selections.
“He’s the quintessential game-plan disruptor,” observed an NFC personnel evaluator.
“He’s still in his prime [29], so he should sustain dominant production for at least a few more years,” commented another NFC personnel evaluator. “A potential impediment is the Browns’ possible need to play from behind frequently. However, this hasn’t deterred him in the past.”
Also receiving votes: Surtain, Micah Parsons (Green Bay Packers), Travon Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Several rookies present compelling arguments, resulting in a lack of consensus among voters. A minimum of seven players among the top 40 draft selections garnered at least one vote. Evaluators anticipate a significant year for Colts tight end Tyler Warren, who vied for the top spot.
However, Hampton possesses certain advantages. His offensive coordinator is Greg Roman, renowned for his deep-seated preference for the running game. Najee Harris was sidelined throughout training camp due to an eye ailment, and although he has returned, Hampton is favorably positioned as a primary back, evidenced by his 17 touches for 61 yards in his Week 1 debut against Kansas City.
“He’s part of a team that has experienced playoff success and is committed to running the football,” noted an AFC scout. “He’s the perfect fit for that offense. Ashton Jeanty is a talented player, but I’m uncertain whether the Raiders will be competitive enough.”
Furthermore, numerous evaluators express the belief that Emeka Egbuka is destined to be a central figure in award-season discussions in the future. He received several votes alongside Warren, even before his two-touchdown debut in Atlanta.
Also receiving votes: Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts), Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars), TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots), Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders), Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers), RJ Harvey (Denver Broncos)
Micah Parsons made a striking entry into the NFL scene in 2021 as a formidable pass rusher from Penn State. Carter has the potential to mirror his fellow Nittany Lion’s impact in the NFC East, the division that Parsons, formerly of the Dallas Cowboys, once dominated.
Carter’s pass-rushing abilities were showcased during the preseason, and with a robust Giants defensive line that includes Dexter Lawrence II and Brian Burns, Carter should secure his fair share of one-on-one matchups.
“He has the potential to be an All-Pro in the foreseeable future,” stated an NFL personnel evaluator. “The circumstances are highly favorable for him.”
Carter’s half-sack debut against Washington on Sunday belies his actual influence. He consistently applied pressure on the pocket, employing a variety of pass-rush techniques and exhibiting extraordinary flexibility off the edge.
While the voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year was closely contested, Carter overwhelmingly dominated the DPOY discussion, securing over 50% of the votes.
Also receiving votes: Kenneth Grant (Miami Dolphins), Jordan Burch (Arizona Cardinals), Jalon Walker (Atlanta Falcons), Malaki Starks (Baltimore Ravens), Will Johnson (Cardinals)
Several accomplished star players are returning from significant injuries and are poised to compete for the Comeback Player of the Year award. However, McCarthy is entering his first year as a starter in an optimal situation to fully leverage his skill set.
The Vikings are a playoff contender and believe they are capable of building a Super Bowl-caliber roster with a starting quarterback operating under the cost-effective rookie wage scale. McCarthy also benefits from the opportunity to observe from the sidelines for a year, following the season-ending knee injury he sustained during the 2024 preseason.
Furthermore, any young quarterback should aspire to have access to top-tier wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) and tight end (T.J. Hockenson) talents, as McCarthy does.
“[Kevin] O’Connell will extract the best from him, and he possesses sufficient talent around him to avoid the necessity of carrying the entire burden,” commented an AFC executive. “They should support him with a strong running game.”
McCarthy was already the preferred candidate prior to Monday night’s victory over Chicago, but his three-touchdown second-half performance (two passing, one rushing) to overcome an 11-point deficit solidified his case.
Also receiving votes: Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys), Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions)
1:06
Why Stephen A.’s not sold on J.J. McCarthy yet
Despite being impressed with J.J. McCarthy’s NFL debut, Stephen A. Smith isn’t convinced the Vikings have found their franchise QB.
This category presents challenges due to the varying interpretations of what constitutes a “breakout” season. Two players who garnered multiple votes were New York’s Malik Nabers and Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr., both of whom had already achieved breakout status as rookies in 2024, surpassing 1,200 receiving yards each.
Consequently, we requested voters to suggest alternative choices—players positioned for success in their second or third year. Pearsall emerged as a prominent candidate, following a 108-yard performance in the season opener against Seattle. The former first-round pick’s rookie season was marred by a gunshot wound to the chest sustained during an attempted robbery in August 2024. He has also encountered hamstring issues and a shoulder subluxation.
“I am optimistic about Ricky and anticipate that he will be targeted frequently—although he must demonstrate his ability to remain healthy,” remarked an NFC executive.
Pearsall is expected to serve as a primary target for Brock Purdy during the initial half of 2025. Jauan Jennings was sidelined for the majority of training camp and is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, while tight end George Kittle was recently placed on injured reserve due to a hamstring issue.
Also receiving votes: Bo Nix (Denver Broncos), Calijah Kancey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Tyler Guyton (Dallas Cowboys), Riley Moss (Broncos), Calen Bullock (Houston Texans)
The Chiefs are in the midst of a streak of nine consecutive AFC West titles. The Chargers demonstrated on Friday night why that streak could be in jeopardy.
Harbaugh has redefined the landscape in Los Angeles, leading the team to a 12-6 record since assuming his role. Following last week’s victory over Kansas City in Sao Paulo, Harbaugh boasts a 6-0 record in Week 1 games, dating back to his tenure in San Francisco.
“He has assembled a team capable of winning the West, which would be a notable accomplishment,” observed an NFC executive. “He has instilled an edge in the team’s performance.”
Evaluators have noted that the offense appears to be evolving in Roman’s second year as the playcaller. Justin Herbert was accurate, completing 25 of 34 passes for 318 yards, three passing touchdowns, and 32 rushing yards. In the previous season, Herbert averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts per game, as Los Angeles heavily favored the run. The Chargers displayed a willingness to pass the ball late in the game and while holding a lead on Thursday night, indicative of Harbaugh’s capacity to adapt.
Harbaugh has achieved success in every position he has held, so the momentum he has generated in Los Angeles should come as no surprise.
Also receiving votes: Mike Macdonald (Seattle Seahawks), Mike Vrabel (New England Patriots), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas Cowboys)
