Considering the array of skilled horses entered for the 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, which stands the best chance of victory? Previous races can provide guidance. Examining the extensive record of the Breeders’ Cup Turf highlights notable patterns that bettors can utilize to assess the leading contenders.
Here are eight established trends to consider when assessing the Breeders’ Cup Turf, scheduled for Nov. 1 at Del Mar:
Horses that finish strong have an edge
It’s rare for horses that set an early pace to secure victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. In fact, 11 of the most recent 15 victors (73%) were positioned no better than fifth after the initial half-mile, with nine winners (53%) coming from the latter portion of the pack.
|
Year |
Winner |
Position after first 1/2-mile |
½-mile & ¾-mile times (course condition) |
|
2024 |
Rebel’s Romance |
3rd, trailing by 1 length (13 starters) |
:48.77, 1:13.82 (firm) |
|
2023 |
Auguste Rodin |
8th, trailing by 4.25 lengths (11 starters) |
:48.79, 1:12.66 (firm) |
|
2022 |
Rebel’s Romance |
10th, trailing by 8.25 lengths (13 starters) |
:49.42, 1:14.15 (firm) |
|
2021 |
Yibir |
13th, trailing by 13.5 lengths (14 starters) |
:48.38, 1:12.41 (firm) |
|
2020 |
Tarnawa |
8th, trailing by 6.75 lengths (10 starters) |
:51.06, 1:15.99 (firm) |
|
2019 |
Bricks and Mortar |
7th, trailing by 2.75 lengths (12 starters) |
:48.44, 1:13.26 (firm) |
|
2018 |
Enable |
6th, trailing by 5 lengths (13 starters) |
:49.11, 1:14.22 (good) |
|
2017 |
Talismanic |
5th, trailing by 3.5 lengths (13 starters) |
:48.33, 1:12.86 (firm) |
|
2016 |
Highland Reel |
1st , leading by 2.5 lengths (12 starters) |
:48.00, 1:12.70 (firm) |
|
2015 |
Found |
7th, trailing by 26.75 lengths (12 starters) |
:48.38, 1:12.64 (good) |
|
2014 |
Main Sequence |
9th, trailing by 4 lengths (12 starters) |
:47.76, 1:11.15 (good) |
|
2013 |
Magician |
11th, trailing by 14.5 lengths (12 starters) |
:46.94, 1:10.67 (firm) |
|
2012 |
Little Mike |
3rd, trailing by 3.5 lengths (12 starters) |
:46.77, 1:10.80 (firm) |
|
2011 |
St Nicholas Abbey |
5th, trailing by 3 lengths (9 starters) |
:50.09, 1:14.67 (good) |
|
2010 |
Dangerous Midge |
2nd, trailing by 2 lengths (7 starters) |
:50.17, 1:15.91 (firm) |
The top betting choice often does well
The horse with the shortest odds has achieved a fourth-place finish or higher in 15 of the past 17 Breeders’ Cup Turf races, a noteworthy statistic given the typically large and competitive fields in the Turf. Favorites have performed particularly well recently, claiming victory in four of the seven races since 2018.
Consider horses from across the Atlantic
Horses trained outside of North America frequently win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Runners from abroad have won 21 of the last 27 races (78%). This trend has been especially pronounced in the last ten years, with Bricks and Mortar (2019) being the only North American victor.
Irish-bred horses have a history of success
Twenty-six of the 42 past Breeders’ Cup Turf champions (62%) were bred outside of North America, including nine of the last 10 (90%). Most of these foreign-bred champions (18) came from Ireland, which has produced more winners than any other nation.
Consider horses trained by O’Brien and Appleby
Aidan O’Brien holds the record with seven Breeders’ Cup Turf wins, all with Irish-bred horses. He has five victories in the last 14 years with Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Reel (2016), Found (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Half of O’Brien’s 36 total starters (50%) have finished in the top three.
Charlie Appleby has also demonstrated excellence in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. With only six starters across four races, Appleby has secured three wins with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2022 and 2024).
Buick, Dettori, and Moore have excellent riding records
Several jockeys have particularly strong records in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
William Buick has competed six times in the Turf, winning twice with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2024). His win rate is 33%.
Frankie Dettori has secured five Turf wins from 22 attempts, a 23% success rate.
Ryan Moore’s record is exceptional. In 15 Turf rides, he has five wins, four second-place finishes, three third-place finishes, and two fourth-place finishes. His win rate is 33%, and 93% of his rides have concluded in the top four.
Proven Grade/Group 1 winners often prevail
Since 2000, 22 of 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (85%) had previously won a Grade 1 or Group 1 race.
Female horses are often competitive
Fillies and mares don’t often compete in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, having participated in just 15 races in the last decade. However, they’ve secured three wins during that period with Found (2015), Enable (2018), and Tarnawa (2020). Notably, fillies and mares finished first and second in both 2018 and 2020.
Final Thoughts
Based on these trends, 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk appears to be a strong contender to win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, this Irish-bred filly has had a successful year in Europe, winning the Group 1 Irish and English Oaks and the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks consecutively, before finishing a close second against male horses in the Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Due to these races, Minnie Hauk will likely be a strong favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The concerns are minimal. She tends to start faster than typical Turf winners, and with Ryan Moore injured, she may be ridden by Christophe Soumillon. This is not concerning, as Soumillion won the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf with Shirocco, one of only two horses he’s ridden in the Turf.
Rebel’s Romance is also a great match for the typical profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, as he has already won the race twice. The globetrotting Irish-bred is trained by Charlie Appleby and will probably have William Buick as the jockey.
The negatives are few: he has more early speed than many Turf winners, he isn’t a filly or mare, and he won’t be the favorite if Minnie Hauk starts. However, if Minnie Hauk withdraws, Rebel’s Romance will likely start as the favorite, further cementing him as a strong threat based on these trends.
Best of luck with your choices, and enjoy the race!
