The initial Test match of the three-game series pitting New Zealand against the West Indies, pencilled in from December 2nd to 6th, 2025, at Hagley Oval, is anticipated to unfold under a range of atmospheric conditions, with the highest likelihood of rainfall predicted for the opening and concluding days. While the intermediate portion of the game is projected to experience clearer skies, initial cloudiness, fluctuating temperatures, and energetic northwest winds may influence the pitch’s behavior and the captain’s tactical decisions.
NZ vs WI, 1st Test: Will rain play a spoiler?
Air temperatures throughout the Test timeframe are expected to fluctuate between 8°C and 24°C, with relative humidity levels hovering between 58-73% and wind speeds potentially reaching up to 38 km/h. These elements are foreseen to aid seam bowlers, who have historically been effective at Hagley Oval. With minimal mid-Test disruptions expected, teams that win the coin toss on the first day may be inclined to opt to bowl first, thereby capitalizing on the conditions that favor the new ball.
Day 1: High rain chance and cloud cover to challenge opening hour
The inaugural day, December 2nd, presents the most unsettled weather conditions of the Test. The weather is predicted to remain overcast, with temperatures varying between 8-18°C, coupled with strong northwest winds that could intensify to 38 km/h, particularly in more exposed sections of the stadium.
A 25-40% chance of rainfall threatens to either postpone or interrupt the opening session. Prediction models suggest that 10-20 mm of precipitation may occur if showers coincide with play, prompting both officials and teams to closely monitor updates. Significant 80% cloud coverage should generate ideal swing conditions, offering an early advantage to pacers like Matt Henry. Batters may encounter a rigorous examination until the conditions overhead stabilize.
Day 2: Improved forecast with moderate seam movement expected
Conditions are set to improve on December 3rd, with the probability of rain decreasing to 20-30%, although isolated showers could still cause brief interruptions. Temperatures are expected to rise to 12-20°C, while wind speeds moderate to around 20 km/h, fostering more stable playing conditions compared to the first day.
A partially cloudy afternoon is considered ideal for extended periods of play, but humidity levels near 70% may still assist bowlers. Seamers from both teams – notably New Zealand’s bowling attack and West Indies’ Jayden Seales – are anticipated to gain from the persistent movement in the air.
Day 3: Best weather window promises full day of cricket
The third day, December 4th, features the most favorable forecast, with the chance of rain falling below 15%. Temperatures are predicted to increase to 14-22°C, and wind speeds are expected to diminish further, stabilizing between 15–25 km/h. Under partially sunny skies, teams should be able to enjoy an uninterrupted day – ideal for batting as the pitch usually stabilizes by this stage.
Historical data from Hagley Oval indicates that scores exceeding 300 are attainable on the third and fourth days once the early greenness dissipates and the bounce becomes more predictable.
Day 4: Dry, warm and windy conditions set stage for big scores
December 5th is expected to remain dry with minimal chance of rain (<10%) and temperatures ranging from 16-24°C. Gusty northwest winds at speeds between 20-30 km/h may offer minor assistance to bowlers, but overall, conditions strongly favor batters. Partial cloud cover around 50% should maintain the pitch's liveliness to prevent imbalances but allow established players to capitalize, particularly during the third and fourth innings.
Day 5: Rain threat returns for potentially dramatic finish
The final day, December 6th, witnesses a renewed likelihood of rain between 30-50%, with temperatures decreasing to 10-20°C. Forecasts caution of up to 15 mm of rainfall, which could potentially disrupt the concluding stages of the Test. If weather permits, both teams will strive for a decisive outcome – but the early use of covers remains likely should morning showers materialize.
