Predicting the 2026 Canadian Athlete of the Year

This selection comes from The Buzzer, CBC Sports’ daily electronic newsletter. Keep informed about current sports events by signing up here.

This past Tuesday, professional basketball player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander secured the Northern Star Award , marking his second recognition as Canada’s top athlete of the year. He surpassed the exceptional swimmer Summer McIntosh in a ballot cast by sports journalists nationwide.

The decision was well-founded. Over the current year, Gilgeous-Alexander delivered one of the most remarkable performances ever seen from an NBA athlete, claiming both the regular-season and Finals Most Valuable Player accolades, securing the scoring championship, and earning his initial league title with the Oklahoma City Thunder. And SGA has sustained his impressive performance this campaign, guiding OKC to an outstanding 23-1 standing, topping the league in points per possession, and holding the second spot for points per game, trailing only Lakers sharp-shooter Luka Doncic, who has logged considerably more playing time (the Thunder’s consistent dominance has meant SGA has participated in the final quarter in merely 11 of his 24 appearances).

Nevertheless, it would be improper to overlook McIntosh’s achievements during this year.

During the Canadian trials held in June, the remarkable 18-year-old athlete achieved a feat not seen since Michael Phelps at the 2008 Beijing Olympics: she shattered three distinct individual global records within a single competition. At the subsequent world championships in Singapore, McIntosh pursued the ambitious aim of equaling Phelps’ accomplishment of five individual gold medals. She narrowly missed, securing four golds within her preferred 200-400m events and earning a bronze in the 800m freestyle — an event she adopted only months prior to compete against American champion Katie Ledecky (the sole other female athlete to win four golds at a single world championship) in her renowned event. In the 200m butterfly, McIntosh was a mere 0.18 seconds shy of breaking what was once regarded as an unassailable world record established by China’s Liu Zige during the era of the revolutionary supersuits.

In most years, such a performance would be ample to secure the Northern Star accolade. That McIntosh did not win serves as clear evidence of Gilgeous-Alexander’s exceptional skill.

For the past three years, SGA and Summer have alternated receiving the Northern Star. Gilgeous-Alexander claimed it in 2023 subsequent to ranking fifth in the NBA MVP poll and guiding the Canadian men’s national squad to its initial Olympic qualification in twenty-five years, alongside an unparalleled bronze medal at the Basketball World Cup. McIntosh was awarded it the previous year, having earned three Olympic gold medals and one silver in Paris.

Is it possible for them to maintain this shared dominance? Indeed, Gilgeous-Alexander appears set to contend once more next year, as he continues to perform as a leading MVP contender, while the Thunder appear primed to secure consecutive NBA championships and potentially surpass the regular-season victory benchmark. However, no individual has claimed successive Northern Star/Lou Marsh Awards since Ben Johnson achieved it in 1986 and ’87. The sole athletes to have won it more than twice in their careers are Wayne Gretzky (with 4) and the renowned figure skater Barbara Ann Scott (with 3). Johnson would have joined this exclusive group in 1988, but, well, circumstances prevented it.

The challenge will be greater for McIntosh, given the absence of Summer Olympics or global swimming championships scheduled for 2026. The most significant events she could participate in are the Commonwealth Games and Pan Pacific Championships during the summer months, along with the short-course world championships in December.   

Therefore, which other individuals possess a strong likelihood of securing the Northern Star award in the upcoming year?

Should past patterns be any indication, a Winter Olympian is likely to be the recipient. Canada is projected to secure numerous medals at the Games taking place in northern Italy this February. In the 13 Olympic years observed this century, the Northern Star/Lou Marsh award has been bestowed upon an Olympic athlete in 12 instances. The sole anomaly, coincidentally, occurred in 2010, when Canada experienced its most successful Winter Olympics in Vancouver, yet baseball standout Joey Votto received the Lou Marsh after earning the National League MVP title.

Unless a non-Olympic athlete captures significant attention — perhaps, for instance, Alphonso Davies when Canada co-organizes the World Cup this summer — these are some leading contenders for the Northern Star in the coming year:

Connor McDavid: Considered among the finest athletes yet to claim this honor (a group that also includes Gordie Howe and Andre De Grasse), McDavid faces a truly golden chance at his inaugural Olympic Games. Should he contribute to Canada reclaiming the men’s gold medal and subsequently guide the Edmonton Oilers to a Stanley Cup triumph, one might as well send him the award directly. However, McDavid may not even require the Oilers’ achievement if he performs exceptionally well at the Olympics — similar to his performance this year when he netted the overtime winning goal in the intense 4 Nations Face-Off final against the competing United States.

Will Dandjinou: While not currently a widely recognized name, this prominent short-track speed skater is a strong contender to be Canada’s top medal earner at his debut Olympics. Dandjinou, aged 24, has demonstrated supremacy in his discipline over the past two years, securing consecutive men’s overall championships on the short track World Tour and achieving gold in seven of his 12 individual competitions this season. Factoring in relays, he possesses the potential to win five Olympic medals, a feat that would equal long-track skater Cindy Klassen’s record for a single Games by a Canadian athlete (across either winter or summer events).

Rachel Homan: Among the most compelling narratives for 2026 would be Homan conquering her past Olympic disappointments to secure a curling gold medal. She surprisingly did not make the playoffs in 2018 as the reigning women’s world champion skip, and then again did not progress four years later in mixed doubles alongside John Morris. However, with her reconfigured four-person squad, Homan is currently performing at an unparalleled level, remaining unbeaten at the last two Scotties Tournament of Hearts and clinching consecutive global championships.

Marie-Philip Poulin: The unparalleled captain of Canada’s women’s hockey team, she earned the Northern Star in 2022 subsequent to tallying two goals to overcome the formidable United States in the gold-medal contest in Beijing, establishing herself as the sole athlete ever (male or female) to score in four Olympic championship games. Poulin requires merely two more goals to surpass Hayley Wickenheiser’s career record for the highest number of goals in Olympic women’s hockey. At 34 years old, she continues to perform at an exceptionally elite standard, having led the PWHL in goals during the previous season and securing the league’s MVP honor.