The newest high-profile Japanese free agent, Munetaka Murakami, is reportedly joining a Chicago team for an amount less than anticipated.
Sources like MLB.com’s Yuki Yamada and Yahoo Sports’ Russell Dorsey indicate that the Yakult Swallows’ third baseman has finalized a two-year contract worth $34 million with the White Sox. Contrary to expectations of joining a championship contender, he is moving to a team focused on reconstruction.
Despite being just 25, Murakami offers a combination of youthful potential and significant hitting power seldom found among available free agents. However, doubts concerning his batting contact and suitability for a defensive role seemingly hindered him from securing the substantial, nine-figure agreement widely predicted.
This offseason, Yahoo Sports listed Murakami as the sixth-highest-rated free agent.
On November 8th, the Swallows made Murakami available for posting, initiating a 45-day period during which he could engage in discussions with any of the 30 MLB clubs. The Swallows are set to gain a posting fee of $6.575 million from this arrangement.
Munetaka Murakami’s MLB Debut Was Highly Anticipated
Murakami’s name has been prominent for quite some time, ever since he claimed the Central League MVP title at age 21 in 2021. This early success proved to be just a prelude, as he went on to deliver one of the most remarkable seasons in NPB history during 2022.
During his season at age 22, Murakami surpassed Sadaharu Oh’s venerable 58-year-standing NPB record for home runs by a Japanese athlete, hitting 56 blasts and achieving a .318/.458/.710 slash line. Additionally, he became the youngest player to achieve the Triple Crown in NPB history.
Following that impressive season, Murakami entered a new agreement with the Swallows, reportedly including a provision mandating the team to make him available after the 2025 season. This timing would align with the first offseason he could qualify for a massive contract, similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal (a choice Roki Sasaki forwent by moving to MLB at 23).
Murakami’s aspiration to join MLB has been long-standing, and this ambition was clearly reciprocated by 2022. The World Baseball Classic served as an ideally timed platform to generate excitement, allowing American audiences to recognize him as the formidable Japanese slugger complementing Japan’s top-tier pitching staff.
In the period since, Murakami has maintained solid performance, though without approaching the heights of his 2022 campaign. He experienced a couple of less dominant years before experiencing a resurgence in 2025, a season shortened by physical setbacks, where he achieved a .286/.392/.659 batting line with 24 home runs over 220 plate appearances.
Munetaka Murakami Could Be MLB’s Most Unpredictable Free Agent Acquisition
Substantial contracts in MLB invariably carry a degree of uncertainty. This inherent variability is standard in professional athletics, where some agreements prove successful while others falter. However, the potential spectrum of results for Murakami, especially at this particular valuation, is unusually broad.
It is plausible that Murakami could step onto the field and swiftly cement his position as a third baseman, displaying exceptional power and sufficient batting eye to frequently reach base. This scenario is particularly compelling given he is only 25, with his peak years still ahead. His youthfulness is especially noteworthy, as premier free agents seldom reach the open market at such an early stage of their careers.
Conversely, an equally probable scenario exists where Murakami struggles defensively at third base, fails to adapt to MLB pitching speeds, and proves unable to connect with major league breaking pitches. Such a player would not meet the standards of an MLB professional.
These represent genuine worries regarding Murakami, particularly in the period following his extraordinary 2022 season. Fangraphs offers the following assessment concerning his skill in making contact with the baseball:
His success rate in hitting fastballs thrown at 93 mph or faster has drastically declined (reaching only 63% since 2022), and more recently, Murakami’s contact percentage against off-speed pitches has similarly fallen sharply. In 2025, Murakami managed merely a 51% contact rate across all secondary pitch categories, a figure significantly below what would be expected from any reliable, influential major league batter. This stands in stark contrast to his 2022-2023 performance, where his contact rate was 62% — while not stellar, it was notably superior to his 2025 numbers.
Fangraphs further noted that Murakami “is not a particularly agile or adept fielder, and his throwing arm strength is borderline for a third baseman.” Consequently, a transition to first base seems likely, which would intensify the expectations placed on his offensive output.
This collection of observations is hardly inspiring, it must be said.
To put it concisely, Murakami’s contact performance against Japanese pitchers is at a level that would be considered subpar even if his statistics directly mirrored MLB performance. Over his last three NPB seasons, he has struck out in 28.6% of his turns at bat, a rate that would place him as the ninth-lowest among eligible hitters this current year. Should his swing-and-miss rate increase further — a likely outcome given that most MLB hurlers deliver pitches at 93 mph or faster — his profile would begin to resemble that of Adam Dunn during the latter part of his career.
For these reasons, MLB franchises were hesitant to commit to a lengthy financial agreement with Murakami. Nevertheless, several MLB batters have successfully built careers despite high strikeout numbers, and this is the trajectory Murakami will likely attempt to replicate. Notably, all but one of the top five home run hitters in 2025 recorded a strikeout percentage exceeding 25%.
Murakami’s imperative is to powerfully connect with the ball almost every time he makes contact. If he achieves this, he will re-enter free agency at the age of 27, commanding a significantly elevated market value.
