-
Jenna Laine
TAMPA, Fla. — For the initial portion of the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers consistently ranked among the NFC’s elite, maintaining a solid 6-2 standing that put them two games ahead of other NFC South teams.
Baker Mayfield, the team’s quarterback, garnered praise for orchestrating remarkable rally wins, while the defense earned accolades for crucial plays that sealed these triumphs. At one point, Mayfield was even considered a frontrunner for the MVP honor.
Now in Week 17, the team’s fortunes have shifted; having lost six of their last seven contests, which include three consecutive defeats within their division, they now find themselves battling simply to stay in playoff contention.
The Buccaneers (7-8) can only guarantee a postseason spot by claiming their division’s championship. Achieving this requires a victory over the Carolina Panthers (8-7) in Week 18, and should Carolina triumph in Week 17, Tampa Bay would additionally need to defeat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
Mayfield commented on their predicament, stating, “Our back is against the wall,” and adding that they feel “pretty comfortable there.”
Echoing his sentiment, the Buccaneers in 2024 were compelled to secure six wins in their final seven matchups to reach the playoffs following a 4-6 beginning, ultimately ending the regular season 10-7. Similarly, in 2023, they recovered from a 4-7 start by winning five of their last six games, culminating in a 9-8 record and another division title.
Despite the anticipated boosts from returning wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, along with running back Bucky Irving, the team’s aspirations of solidifying their divisional lead have failed to materialize.
Mayfield expressed his current perspective, asserting, “I would love for us to be in a different spot than we’re in right now, don’t get me wrong,” and continuing, “We’ve been here before, and you can always rely on those experiences and take what you’ve learned and go from there, but I trust this group. It hasn’t been our best play by any means, I know that, we all know that, but we can still accomplish everything we want to.”
Coach Todd Bowles articulated the situation, stating, “We understand we control our own destiny, but our biggest enemy right now is us.”
Recent weeks have been characterized by operational errors. The Week 16 matchup against the Panthers concluded with an interception stemming from a mix-up between Mayfield and Evans; Evans misinterpreted Mayfield’s movement, believing he was scrambling when he was actually setting up for a pass. Additionally, Mayfield threw another interception targeting Evans in the fourth quarter during the preceding game against the Falcons.
The defensive unit also bears responsibility. They conceded a 22-yard touchdown to Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, relinquishing a 10-6 advantage with merely 12 seconds remaining in the half. Earlier, a 28-14 lead against the Falcons was squandered in the fourth quarter. In Week 14, three tackle attempts (potentially four, including cornerback Zyon McCollum at the pylon) were missed on Saints quarterback Tyler Shough’s 13-yard scrambling touchdown in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the team incurred seven penalties in just the fourth quarter of the Panthers game.
Nor is the coaching staff exempt from scrutiny. Bowles’ strategy for winning against the Panthers involved exceeding 30 rushing attempts, even though both starting guards were unavailable.
Bowles remarked, “It was a formula for us that worked last year,” elaborating, “Last year we had [40] and [39] rushes against them [in two wins]. When you win the game, it’s different; when you lose the game …”
However, he overlooked the fact that the Panthers’ run defense had significantly improved, transitioning from allowing a league-high 179.82 rushing yards per contest to a more respectable 119.53 rushing yards per game (19th overall).
Mayfield explained, “I mean, here is the thing, you look at statistically — and I’m not a numbers guy — but you look at if you run the ball over 30 times against them, I think they were 2-15,” adding, “That was the message: We’re going to be physical, and we’re going to run the ball.”
Offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs also repeated this particular statistic. Nevertheless, this point failed to incorporate the broader context that teams often rely on running the ball to maintain advantages once games are effectively decided. In the six instances this season where the Panthers lost to opponents who rushed 30 or more times, those teams averaged nine rushing attempts in the fourth quarter. For fourth quarters in games decided by one possession, this figure plummeted to just 3.7 rushing attempts. Furthermore, among all those losses, only one—their Week 2 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals—was decided by eight points or less.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that before this specific contest, the Buccaneers’ season record stood at 2-2 (currently 2-3) when attempting 30 or more rushes in a single game. Despite this, Mayfield emphasized the importance of execution.
Mayfield observed, “Obviously, we didn’t end up on the winning side of it — if we end up [executing on] that two-minute drive, then nobody is really talking about it,” and further stated, “Hindsight is twenty-twenty, the message was to be more physical and run the ball and execute, but then when we have our chance in the pass game, we need to throw it and execute as well.”
Tampa Bay’s offensive output of 4.8 points per game during the fourth quarter ranks as the second-lowest in the league, surpassing only the Cleveland Browns, while their defense has allowed 7.3 points per game in the final period (21st overall). With 32 penalties in the fourth quarter, they rank sixth highest in the league, a position they also hold for their total of 104 penalties across all four quarters. These collective issues contribute to the struggles of a team that secured victories by extremely narrow margins earlier in the season.
Mayfield affirmed, “Our goals are still right in front of us,” before adding, “Would we like to be in a different position? Yeah, we would have liked to close this thing out by now, but that’s not where we’re at. We have to win at Miami and then come back home. Our focus right now is doing everything we possibly can to find a way to win in Miami and see what happens from there.”
