This report offers a concise overview of three equine contenders gaining momentum on the Triple Crown path, alongside three others whose prospects for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, sponsored by Woodford Reserve, have somewhat diminished.
For this inaugural publication of the 2026 blog series dedicated to the Run for the Roses, the emphasis lies on developments observed since the commencement of the new calendar year.
HEATING UP
1. Strategic Risk
Strategic Risk needs further refinement in his velocity metrics, yet his 4 ½-length triumph in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on January 3 at Oaklawn Park was particularly noteworthy. He concluded his last quarter-mile in a remarkable :23.78, showcasing considerable closing speed for a three-year-old competing over two turns in the early part of the year. This performance built upon a dominant nine-length win in the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes on November 29, 2025, at Gulfstream Park, under the guidance of esteemed trainer Mark Casse. While a Noble Bird colt from an Afleet Alex mare might not feature on prominent lineage rosters, his ancestry strongly suggests ample endurance. Noble Bird’s quartet of stakes victories occurred at distances ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles, and Strategic Risk descends from a lineage that includes champions Inside Information and Smuggler, as well as Grade 1 victor Educated Risk. This heritage illuminates his strong finish in the Smarty Jones. His subsequent engagement is the $1 million Southwest Stakes on January 31 at Oaklawn.
2. So Happy
A degree of doubt is understandable regarding So Happy’s potential to maintain peak performance as races progressively lengthen on the Kentucky Derby circuit. His sire, Runhappy, is a celebrated sprinter, and So Happy himself has not yet competed beyond seven-eighths of a mile. Nevertheless, his two appearances thus far have been exceptionally strong. He outpaced nine rivals for a three-quarter-length maiden victory on November 22 at Del Mar, subsequently coming from the rear of a five-horse field—though not explicitly recorded in the race chart, he briefly occupied the last position on the backstretch—to claim the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes by two lengths on January 10 at Santa Anita Park. Under the tutelage of Mark Glatt, So Happy executed a polished performance in his second outing with renowned jockey Mike Smith. He readily accelerated when prompted, changed leads precisely at the top of the stretch, and retained ample energy to overcome the heavily favored Buetane in the final stages. For the San Vicente, he registered a 106 Equibase Speed Figure, a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and a 9 (with lower scores indicating better performance) on the Ragozin Sheets. So Happy’s dam, So Cunning, sired by the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic victor Blame, impressively secured two sprint wins before an unplaced effort at one mile in her concluding race. His grandam, So Glitzy, achieved three victories at distances spanning from a mile to 1 1/8 miles and earned Grade 3 placement at 1 1/8 miles. So Happy could potentially overcome the challenge of extended distances.
3. Nearly
After a dominant 9 ¼-length maiden win under the guidance of celebrated trainer Todd Pletcher, Nearly asserted his superiority with a five-length victory over three rivals on January 2 at Gulfstream Park in a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming event. While questions about the strength of competition in that small field, and his exclusively sprint-race record, are valid, the Not This Time colt consistently shows improvement with each start. His latest win was supported by strong metrics: a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and a 7 ½ on the Ragozin Sheet, thereby validating visual assessments. Although his dam, Ib Prospecting, by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, was primarily a sprinter, Nearly is from an accomplished sire and traces back to a lineage that reveals notable class and endurance upon closer inspection.
Also eligible: Chief Wallabee narrowly missed the final spot, contending closely with Nearly for the third position. This Constitution colt, trained by the esteemed Bill Mott, triumphed in his initial race by 1 ½ lengths over seven-eighths of a mile on January 10 at Gulfstream Park, backed by impressive speed ratings: 98 Equibase, 88 Beyer, and 8 ½ Ragozin. He merits close observation. … The Brad Cox-trained stakes victors Commandment (Mucho Macho Man Stakes, January 3 at Gulfstream) and My World (Jerome Stakes, January 3 at Aqueduct) were seriously considered for inclusion in the top three, but their respective speed figures were somewhat modest. … Similarly, while Lecomte Stakes winner Golden Tempo’s lineage is highly admirable, and he successfully overcame a speed-favoring track to rally and win by three-quarters of a length on January 17 at Fair Grounds, the overall pace of the race was not particularly swift. … Furthermore, it is noteworthy that trainer Todd Pletcher’s Jackson Hole, who commanded a $1.3 million price tag as a yearling, enhanced his perfect record to 2-for-2 with a leading 5 ½-length victory over 1 1/16 miles on January 17 at Fair Grounds.
COOLING DOWN
1. Universe
Universe secured a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and a second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes during his juvenile season, commencing 2026 with considerable promise. However, in his initial outing of the year, the January 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the Global Campaign colt fell short of predictions, concluding with an unconvincing seventh-place, trailing winner Strategic Risk by 11 ¼ lengths. The 74 Equibase Speed Figure achieved by Universe in the Smarty Jones marked the lowest of his five career starts thus far. A significantly better performance will be required in his subsequent race for trainer Kenny McPeek.
2. Crown the Buckeye
Crown the Buckeye, a dual stakes victor at two years old, achieved a third-place finish, just three-quarters of a length behind the winner, in the Gun Runner Stakes on December 20 at Fair Grounds, marking his concluding race of 2025. He wrapped up his juvenile period with two victories, a second, and a third from four starts. The Ohio-born horse’s inaugural attempt in a graded stakes event appeared overly demanding. He maintained pressure on the lead early but subsequently tired, finishing eighth, 8 ½ lengths adrift of Golden Tempo, on a surface that favored front-runners, in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on January 17 at Fair Grounds. While undoubtedly a skillful competitor, he might have found the competition at the graded-stakes tier slightly beyond his current capabilities.
3. Chip Honcho
Chip Honcho, victor of the Gun Runner Stakes, failed to exploit a relatively moderate pace in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on January 17 at Fair Grounds. There, he positioned himself wide to press the pace before initiating his challenge near the entrance to the stretch. Jockey Paco Lopez conveyed assurance, glancing back to assess his rivals, but Chip Honcho proved incapable of surpassing the resolute front-runner Carson Street, eventually yielding ground to late-charging contenders Mesquite (who placed second) and the eventual winner Golden Tempo. While a fourth-place finish, 1 ¾ lengths behind, was not a catastrophic result, his inability to eclipse Carson Street in the stretch occurred in a contest where the leading horses did not demonstrate exceptionally fast closing fractions. Potentially, this race could serve as a valuable learning experience for him…
Of note: Epic Summer displayed early promise in a striking career premiere on October 26 at Belmont at the Big A, where he extended his lead by 3 ¼ lengths after navigating a contested pace. However, his initial venture into stakes-level competition suggested a need for additional seasoned racing. Epic Summer briefly led as they neared the stretch but then weakened, dropping to fifth, 13 ¾ lengths adrift, in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on January 3 at Gulfstream Park.
