BloodHorse’s news editor, Byron King, unveils his latest Derby Dozen for the 2026 season, providing insights into his top contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, scheduled for May 2.
No races awarding qualifying points were held last weekend, but two significant events are approaching on Jan. 31: the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. Meanwhile, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park has been rescheduled to Feb. 6.
For the latest news and statistics on the journey to the Kentucky Derby, consult America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown section.
1. Ted Noffey
The day after receiving the Eclipse Award as the leading 2-year-old male of 2025, Ted Noffey was back on the track at Palm Beach Downs, under the guidance of two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. He completed a half-mile workout in tandem on Jan. 23, clocking :50.81. This breeze was clearly not designed to be strenuous, marking his initial half-mile since concluding an undefeated 4-for-4 season at age two by securing victory in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. His exercise rider maintained a firm hold on him throughout the session. A three-time Grade 1 winner, with two of those triumphs over longer distances, he possesses a level of proven experience that distinguishes him from others on this roster. The Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 28 is his next target.
2. Further Ado
Following his 1 ¾-length win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29, where he appeared to tire quickly during the gallop out, trainer Brad Cox opted to give him a brief respite. This decision is understandable, as the colt’s speed figures in the KJC declined compared to his impressive 20-length triumph in his first two-turn attempt, a 1 1/16-mile race at Keeneland held a month prior. He recommenced training on Jan. 25 with a 3-furlong breeze in :37 at Payson Park, as Cox gradually brings him back into full condition. He likely requires another three or four workouts before reaching race-readiness.
3. Commandment
Brad Cox provided this colt with a few weeks off from breezing subsequent to his remarkable victory in the 1-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park – a race that, surprisingly, does not allocate qualifying points for the Road to the Kentucky Derby, despite some other one-turn mile races doing so. Consequently, this colt currently has no points on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. His only other win came in a second-career start, a seven-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs in the fall. A potential clash with Ted Noffey could materialize in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, though various other Derby pathway options remain available.
4. Paladin
After securing his maiden win via disqualification, Paladin went on to capture last fall’s Remsen Stakes, thereby establishing himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect. Regarding the Remsen’s lengthy dry spell without producing a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch in 1995, it’s best attributed to mere misfortune. The race has, in fact, featured several high-caliber horses, such as the 1-2 finishers from 2023: Dornoch, who later won the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and Sierra Leone, who subsequently claimed the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. The latter – trained by Paladin’s conditioner, Chad Brown – narrowly missed a Derby victory, finishing runner-up by a nose to the ground-saving Mystik Dan.
5. Brant
While there are reservations about this colt’s ability to handle the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance after his third-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Brant’s inherent talent is unquestionable. He is a naturally gifted horse, acquired for $3 million last year as a juvenile, who proceeded to win his first two starts, including the 2025 Del Mar Futurity. I fully anticipate a successful campaign for him this year in shorter route races in California, but I am less optimistic about his chances at 1 1/8 miles and beyond when confronting more formidable fields.
6. Litmus Test
Six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has consistently expressed his belief that this colt will thrive with increased distance. He displayed a strong late surge last year to win the Los Alamitos Futurity, a race that was won in 2024 by 2025 Preakness Stakes victor Journalism. However, Litmus Test’s win in that race did not possess the same striking quality. Prior to that victory, he finished third once and fourth twice in three Grade 1 appearances at two last year. He is entered in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, a race that has been postponed from Jan. 31 to Friday, Feb. 6, due to freezing weather conditions in Arkansas.
7. Incredibolt
This Riley Mott-trained runner is poised to return to competition for the first time since triumphing in the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs when he participates in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The abbreviated stretch prevalent in 1 1/16-mile races might prove disadvantageous for a horse with his closing style, but he did draw the rail, which could better enable him to maintain proximity to his competitors. His five-furlong workout in company on Jan. 23 at Palm Meadows, timed at 1:02.30, doesn’t appear particularly fast, yet he consistently moved with greater ease than his workmate, Whine Country, and effortlessly left him behind with a slight cue from his rider during the gallop out.
8. Golden Tempo
Offspring of Curlin reliably perform well in dirt routes, and he proved no exception in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Despite having only a single six-furlong debut win to his credit, he navigated the 1 1/16-mile distance like a seasoned professional, overcoming the opposition with a rally from last to improve his record to 2-for-2. With the Fair Grounds track playing fast, his time of 1:44.98 resulted in modest speed figures across the board. He clearly possesses considerable scope for further development.
9. Strategic Risk
Similar to other horses stabled at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas (as well as those in Kentucky, Maryland, New York, and other states), his training regimen has been impacted by severe winter weather in recent days. Training was canceled at Oaklawn on Jan. 27, just as it had been the preceding day. A key advantage he holds from a conditioning standpoint is his consistent racing schedule; he won the Nov. 29 FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream before adding the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He is another entrant in the Southwest Stakes, which has been moved from Saturday to Friday, Feb. 6.
10. Nearly
He, along with fellow Todd Pletcher trainee Class President, recorded the co-fastest half-mile breeze on Jan. 24 at Palm Beach Downs, completing the distance in :48.59. This rapid workout suggests that another strong performance is imminent in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes for this rising star, who has achieved a pair of impressive victories at Gulfstream this winter. However, neither of those wins occurred around two turns, so the Holy Bull should provide significant insights. While his dam’s two wins were in sprints, his pedigree does contain stamina influences elsewhere.
11. Canaletto
Making his debut in a maiden race on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream, this long-striding colt made a strong impression by demonstrating manageable speed under Flavien Prat, a quick burst when asked to accelerate on the turn, and then a powerful finish to win by eight lengths. The $1 million yearling covered a mile in 1:36.28, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. As a son of Into Mischief and a half-brother to graded stakes winners She Can’t Sing and Sandman, he possesses both talent and a notable pedigree. These strengths will need to compensate for his limited experience if he is to succeed in the Derby. It’s not unprecedented, as Justify (2018) and Mage (2023) both won the Derby after promising winter debuts as 3-year-olds.
12. Blackout Time
Returning to the official worktab for the first time since being a regulatory scratch from the Oct. 31 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, he joins the Derby Dozen rankings, with the potential to move higher if his training proceeds smoothly. He still needs to record a five-furlong breeze to be removed from the vet’s list, in addition to clearing medication tests and other required protocols. Having just completed his first three-eighths work, it is unlikely we will see the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity runner-up in action until March.
