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Griffith, a listener from Ghana, tunes into CrowdScience, but he also enjoys our related World Service program, Unexpected Elements. He’s observed an interesting pattern.
During the regular Unexpected Elements multiple-choice challenge, the correct option is very seldom ‘a’. Instead, it frequently turns out to be ‘b’ or ‘c’. What is the reason for this? When developing the quiz questions, why is there such a hesitation to designate ‘a’ as the correct answer?
This inquiry prompts host Alex Lathbridge to delve into the intricate workings of the human mind, uncovering the cognitive inclinations that frequently cause missteps in activities involving luck or likelihood. While the brain is an impressive mechanism for comprehending the environment, it occasionally employs ingenious mental shortcuts for efficiency, leading to a quick, though not always accurate, conclusion.
Such a practical method for resolving issues assists us in navigating a highly complex existence. However, on occasion, particularly in matters of arithmetic, randomness, and odds, this method can guide us erroneously. Collaborating with Kit Yates, a mathematician from the University of Bath, UK, and utilizing some slightly past-their-prime confectioneries, Alex aims to discern strategies for prevailing in games based on chance.
Furthermore, Alex investigates the domains of gaming and wagering. These are contests of pure luck where our instincts can sometimes fail us, prompting poor decisions. Rachel Croson, an Economics Professor at the University of Minnesota, USA, elaborates on how our own mental processes can impede our success.
Yet, can an awareness of these common human errors actually improve our chances of victory? Alex speaks with Maria Konnikova, who transformed her studies in poker psychology into a lucrative career in professional gambling. Is it genuinely possible to leverage mathematical principles to overcome our cognitive biases and achieve greater success consistently?
Host Alex Lathbridge
Produced by Emily Knight
Edited by Ben Motley
(Image: Detailed shot of a multiple-choice question. Source: BBC)
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