2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks: Proven Model backs Rory McIlroy Top 5

Kicking off on Thursday, the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am serves as the inaugural signature competition of the 2026 PGA Tour calendar, featuring the season’s initial appearance from celebrated golfer Rory McIlroy. The 36-year-old player concluded his 2025 season with three victories, matching his highest annual win count since 2012, and the analytical SportsLine model forecasts a robust performance from him at Pebble Beach Golf Links in Northern California. Although McIlroy holds the second-most favorable odds for winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at +1300, based on the most recent 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting lines, the model does not predict an outright victory for him. Instead, the model suggests McIlroy will achieve a top-five placement at +290 odds, identifying this as a premier 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop wager. This prestigious tournament attracts a strong lineup, including talents like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Tommy Fleetwood, ensuring significant competition for McIlroy at the forefront, which enhances the value of the model’s nearly 3-1 odds for McIlroy’s 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions. McIlroy is scheduled to play alongside Ryan Fox on Thursday, with their tee time set for 12:24 p.m. ET. 

Beyond its support for McIlroy, the statistical model also identifies promising opportunities with Hideki Matsuyama for a top-10 placement at +300 odds, and Matt Fitzpatrick as a contender to win his designated group at +305 odds for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am wagering. Matsuyama recently came close to triumphing at the WM Phoenix Open, ultimately losing in a playoff, and the model anticipates this momentum will propel him to a top-10 result this coming weekend. Prior to finalizing any 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop selections or other PGA Tour wagers on platforms such as FanDuel or DraftKings, it is recommended to review the golf forecasts and anticipated leaderboard generated by SportsLine’s established computer model.

The unique algorithm developed by SportsLine, crafted by daily fantasy sports expert Mike McClure, has demonstrated exceptional accuracy since the PGA Tour’s recommencement in June 2020. Indeed, the model has accumulated profits exceeding $8,000 on its premier wagers since play resumed, consistently predicting tournament outcomes.

Furthermore, this identical model has precisely forecast an impressive 16 major championships leading into the current weekend, encompassing the 2025 Masters – marking its fourth consecutive Masters success – alongside both this year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Individuals who have tracked its sports wagering suggestions could have realized substantial profits on various betting platforms. 

Top 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop picks

  • Rory McIlroy to finish top 5 (+290)
  • Hideki Matsuyama to finish top 10 (+300)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick Group D winner (+305)

Rory McIlroy: Top 5 finish (+290)

The golfer currently holding the world No. 2 position placed third on the PGA Tour in overall strokes gained during the previous year, specifically achieving fourth in strokes gained from the tee and ninth in strokes gained through putting. Renowned for his powerful drives, he maintained this reputation last year, securing the second spot in driving average. His putting proficiency proved crucial, with him ranking ninth in putting average and tenth in one-putt conversion rates, significantly contributing to his comprehensive performance, which saw him end the PGA Tour season fifth in scoring average. McIlroy claimed victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last year in his opening event of the season, initiating a streak of three wins and four top-five finishes across his initial six tournaments. The model foresees a similarly robust beginning for McIlroy at Pebble Beach, identifying significant potential in his +290 odds for a top-5 placement this weekend.

Hideki Matsuyama: Top 10 finish (+300)

Matsuyama largely maintained command during the recent Waste Management Phoenix Open until Chris Gotterup’s Sunday 64-stroke round led to a playoff, which Gotterup eventually secured, yet Matsuyama delivered four impressive rounds throughout the event. The 33-year-old golfer posted scores of 68 or better on all four days, including his own 64 on Friday, and has placed no lower than 13th in his three competitions this year. To date this season, he ranks tenth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, second in recovery from difficult lies (scrambling), and twelfth in average scoring, signaling a strong start. He triumphed at the Hero World Challenge in December and secured top-20 finishes in five of his final seven PGA Tour appearances last season, positioning him as a frequent top-10 contender. Considering his performance early this season, particularly his showing last weekend, the model identifies his odds for a Top 10 finish as a favorable bet.

Matt Fitzpatrick Group D winner at DraftKings (+305)

Within DraftKings Sportsbook’s Group D, the lineup includes Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Robert MacIntyre, Jake Knapp, and J.J. Spaun. Chris Gotterup (+285) is assigned the most favorable odds to achieve the top score in this particular group, however, the model anticipates Fitzpatrick will emerge as the leader among these players. The 29-year-old secured a ninth-place finish at the recent Waste Management Phoenix Open, delivering scores of 70 or better across all four rounds, highlighted by an initial round of 65. Fitzpatrick has successfully advanced past the cut in four of his six AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am appearances, notably tying for sixth in 2022. While Gotterup might see increased betting interest following his win last week, this victory could potentially result in a dip in performance with a quick succession of events. The model does not forecast Gotterup to secure a top-10 position this weekend; conversely, at odds exceeding 3-1, the model favors Fitzpatrick, especially on a course where he possesses considerable familiarity. 

Want more picks for the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

Having reviewed SportsLine’s predictive selections for the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop bets this weekend, you can now explore the model’s comprehensive leaderboard forecast for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026, which features four golfers with odds of +300 or greater identified as potential top-10 finishers. Access to the model’s complete set of predictions is exclusively available here.

Which competitor will claim victory at the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and which lesser-favored players are poised to surprise the golf community? Review the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting lines provided below, then proceed to SportsLine to view the anticipated leaderboard, all derived from the computational model that has accurately predicted 16 golf major tournaments, including three within 2025.