With the NBA trade period concluded and All-Star celebrations finished, a couple of months of regular-season play remain, during which numerous compelling narratives will further develop.
Our professional basketball analysts have prepared a comprehensive guide outlining the most critical inquiries, captivating matches to observe, and competitive award categories worth tracking.
As the playoff landscape clarifies over the next few weeks, which squad poses the most significant threat to the current title-holders, the Oklahoma City Thunder? Will the MVP award again be a direct competition between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or might an unexpected contender claim the trophy this year?
Discover the insights from our NBA experts and additional information, such as what to monitor among the lowest-ranked teams, as the NBA lottery approaches on May 10.
Jump to:
Biggest questions | Games to watch
Award races | Lottery watch
Playoff projections
Biggest questions for the rest of the season
Who is the biggest threat to the Thunder in the postseason?
This hinges on the physical condition of the Denver Nuggets, a team that forced the Thunder to a seven-game series in the previous West semifinals. Similar to Oklahoma City, Denver has faced numerous injury setbacks this season; however, the Nuggets’ restructured management has assembled Nikola Jokic’s strongest supplementary roster to date – provided all essential players are fit for the playoffs.
Supporters of the Jackals and the broader San Antonio Spurs organization are justifiably frustrated by their exclusion from this prediction, especially given Victor Wembanyama and his teammates achieved a 4-1 record against the Thunder this year, including a trio of victories within a 12-day span in December when Oklahoma City was largely healthy. Nevertheless, this squad’s limited postseason experience casts sufficient uncertainty on the Spurs’ prospects of navigating the challenging Western Conference playoffs. — Tim MacMahon
Which team is the dark horse in the East?
Designating the Cleveland Cavaliers as a dark horse contender is challenging, as current projections position them securely near the top of the rankings. Therefore, let us presume the Cavaliers are not the unexpected candidate, particularly with the recent James Harden trade generating considerable anticipation. The Boston Celtics appear to be the most significant wildcard, even more so than the Philadelphia 76ers. They hold the second spot in the East despite the absence of Jayson Tatum, who has been sidelined since last year’s playoffs due to an Achilles injury. Should Tatum rejoin the team, which is anticipated, it will further complicate an already strong Eastern Conference.
Forecasting Tatum’s seamless re-entry into intense competitive play is difficult, but the Celtics possess such potent perimeter shooting and boast the league’s second-highest offensive efficiency, primarily driven by Jaylen Brown’s contributions (29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists), suggesting they might not require Tatum to perform at his peak. If Tatum can contribute effectively as a defender, rebounder, and reliable spot-up shooter, Boston advancing through two playoff series remains a distinct possibility. — Vincent Goodwill
1:38
Are the Knicks a genuine playoff threat in the East?
Iman Shumpert and Tim MacMahon discuss the Knicks’ playoff qualifications and how deep they can go this season.
Which player incentives should we pay attention to?
A player whose situation warrants monitoring is Zion Williamson, projected to participate in a minimum of 41 contests for only the third occurrence across six campaigns. This milestone has emerged as a crucial benchmark for both Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans organization. The five-year, $197.2 million contract extension he inked in 2022 incorporates provisions concerning games played and body weight, failure to satisfy which could diminish his guaranteed earnings for subsequent years. (For instance, due to Williamson’s absence from over 22 games in the 2024-25 season, his $42.2 million remuneration for 2026-27 is not guaranteed.)
The extended agreement permits Williamson’s compensation for the upcoming season to transition from partially to fully guaranteed upon the fulfillment of four specific requirements:
-
More than 41 games played ($16,866,604)
-
More than 51 games played ($8,433,302)
-
More than 61 games played ($8,433,302)
-
Weight criteria ($8,433,302)
With 40 games already completed this season, Williamson’s protected earnings will rise from $0 to $16,866,604 when the Pelicans play host to the Milwaukee Bucks this Friday. Concurrently, provided Williamson is not released from his contract, his entire salary will be guaranteed by July 15. — Bobby Marks
Are we watching LeBron James’ final months as a Los Angeles Laker?
James’ path forward remains exceptionally uncertain, as the 41-year-old athlete has consistently voiced his indecision regarding whether to continue playing next season—he becomes a free agent this summer—or to conclude his career.
Should James elect to compete for a 24th consecutive season, he would be received favorably in Los Angeles, according to sources privy to ESPN.
Prior to the current season’s commencement, Lakers President of Basketball Operations and General Manager Rob Pelinka expressed his strong desire for James to conclude his career as a Laker. ESPN sources indicated this feeling aimed to suggest a retirement in either 2026 or 2027, contingent on James’ plans to prolong his playing tenure.
Should James opt to rejoin the team, his compensation would significantly influence the specific roster configuration Los Angeles could assemble.
James is earning $52.6 million this current season. While he accepted a $2.7 million reduction from the maximum allowable salary in his most recent contract with L.A., accepting a substantial pay decrease to re-sign with the Lakers this offseason would represent a considerable deviation from his historical negotiation practices. — Dave McMenamin
1:55
Can LeBron carry the Lakers to a deep playoff run?
The “Get Up” crew questions if LeBron James has what it takes to lead the Lakers past the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs.
The biggest storyline to watch for the rest of the regular season is _____?
The competition for draft positioning. While some adjustments to standings may occur near the summit of each conference, the playoff contenders and those on the cusp of qualification largely seem established. That excitement typically peaks in mid-April, yet, for now, intense scrutiny will focus on the deliberate efforts to finish last and the overt tactics employed to secure additional lottery balls in May’s drawing.
Additionally, attention shifts to the premier prospects within the current draft class. Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson (along with numerous other potential lottery selections) are all members of collegiate teams anticipated to perform strongly in March. Professional basketball enthusiasts scouting for their future franchise players will observe these developments with heightened curiosity. — Anthony Slater
What is the current relationship status between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks? The Bucks intend to salvage this 13-year partnership, yet it remains uncertain what actions they can take before his impending future once more dominates summer headlines. Milwaukee will emerge from the All-Star recess holding a 23-30 record, occupying the 12th position in the Eastern Conference standings.
Antetokounmpo has been sidelined since January 23rd due to a strained right calf, but he is projected to return to play within the coming weeks in an attempt to propel Milwaukee into the playoffs. Will his efforts prove fruitful? Will the Bucks shift their focus from playoff aspirations to securing a better draft slot? Or are these Antetokounmpo’s concluding months as a Milwaukee player? — Jamal Collier
The Cavaliers have achieved victory in 10 out of their last 11 contests and, at the culmination of this remarkable run, acquired James Harden to substitute for the frequently injured Darius Garland. This move unequivocally signals, both economically and practically, Cleveland’s immediate championship ambitions.
The shortcomings in the playoffs over the previous two seasons persist, prompting them to implement substantial alterations, including a considerable risk on Harden despite his past difficulties in postseason play. Presently, they hold the 4th position in the East, trailing the 2nd seed by 1.5 games, thereby placing them squarely in contention for a potential second-round encounter with the New York Knicks and Celtics.
Donovan Mitchell’s performance, who is silently enjoying his most successful season, is well-established. Should he and Harden forge effective chemistry over the concluding two months, they could steer this team to the 2nd seed, thereby elevating playoff anticipations once more. Are they adequately equipped for such a challenge this time, or are they poised to repeat previous Cavaliers outcomes? — Goodwill
Biggest games to watch at the top of the standings
Cleveland Cavaliers versus Detroit Pistons (February 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
The commencement of the James Harden tenure with the Cavaliers has been remarkably successful—they entered the All-Star hiatus on a three-game victorious run—yet it remains early in their journey. The Cavaliers face numerous compelling contests in the post-break period, notably a clash against the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons, who presently hold a seven-game advantage over them in the league table.
Boston Celtics versus New York Knicks (April 9, 7:30 PM ET)
By this stage of the schedule, Jayson Tatum might indeed have rejoined the Celtics’ lineup, having engaged in practice sessions with the Celtics’ G League associate team just last week. With these clubs presently divided by merely half a game in the league table, they will be competing fiercely for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference as the regular season concludes. This particular matchup could decisively influence that outcome.
Oklahoma City Thunder versus Denver Nuggets (April 10, 9:00 PM ET)
Provided both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic maintain eligibility for year-end accolades, this game on the regular season’s concluding Friday promises to be more than just a potential Western Conference finals preview; it will also serve as a crucial contest for last-minute MVP award arguments. As MacMahon emphasized, the Nuggets, operating at full strength, represent the primary challengers poised to unseat the Thunder this season.
1:25
Why Stephen A. is ‘nervous’ about the Pistons in the East
Stephen A. Smith praises the Pistons and explains why they make him nervous as a Knicks fan.
Biggest games to watch at the bottom of the standings
Memphis Grizzlies versus Utah Jazz (February 20, 7:00 PM ET)
Utah, which incurred a $500,000 penalty last week for allegedly manipulating its player rotations, will emerge from the All-Star recess to confront Memphis, another club squarely involved in the pursuit of higher draft picks. This encounter marks the initial game between these two teams since they exchanged Jaren Jackson Jr. prior to the trade deadline—a transaction that, coincidentally, appeared structured to aid the Grizzlies in their strategic efforts to improve draft position.
New Orleans Pelicans versus Sacramento Kings (April 3, 10:00 PM ET)
These two franchises had no intention of participating in the strategic bottom-feeding for draft picks at the season’s outset, yet they are now deeply entrenched among the league’s lowest ranks. The Pelicans find themselves in this predicament solely due to their challenging season; moreover, they do not possess their own first-round draft selection this year. Conversely, the Kings might soon secure a top-three lottery position, even with over two months remaining in the regular season schedule.
Washington Wizards versus Brooklyn Nets (April 5, 3:30 PM ET)
A Sunday afternoon game in Brooklyn will feature a confrontation between two clubs that have dedicated this season to vying for optimal lottery placement, with just one week remaining in the regular campaign. As the season’s conclusion also dictates playoff berths, this contest could prove critically important in establishing the final rankings among the league’s lower-tier teams.
— Tim Bontemps
MVP, ROY and more! Award races to watch
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
Primary Contender: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Given both his outstanding personal statistics (32 points per game with 67% true shooting) and his pivotal role for the Western Conference’s leading team, SGA is widely expected to secure a consecutive MVP award. Oklahoma City achieves 121.6 points per 100 possessions when Gilgeous-Alexander participates, compared to only 110.0 in his absence. This disparity is comparable to the gap between the premier Nuggets and the 29th-ranked Wizards.
Also Vying: Nikola Jokic
Immediately following Gilgeous-Alexander is the athlete who was the runner-up in the previous year. Jokic paces the league in both rebounds (12.3 per contest) and assists (10.7), and he is currently tracking to establish new single-season benchmarks for player efficiency rating and box plus-minus. Only his limited participation—Jokic has already sat out 16 games—hinders the three-time MVP’s candidacy. Lesser-ranked candidates trailing Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic consist of Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown, who captain leading Eastern Conference teams but lack the individual statistical output to rival the two most recent MVP recipients.
1:11
Iman Shumpert: It’s a great decision to rest SGA
Iman Shumpert says its a “great decision” to rest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he recovers from an abdominal strain.
Rookie of the Year (ROY)
Frontrunner: Cooper Flagg
The top draft selection is anticipated to claim this accolade, having overcome an initial sluggish period while playing an unfamiliar role to average 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists by the All-Star recess. Despite sustaining a foot sprain earlier in the month, Flagg’s performance continues to ascend: Across his final six appearances before the break, he erupted for 32 points per game on 53% accuracy from the field.
Challenger: Kon Knueppel
The 4th overall pick remains a strong contender should Flagg’s performance diminish in the latter part of the season, currently averaging 18.9 points per game with unprecedented efficiency for a rookie. By sinking 3.4 three-pointers per game at a 43% rate from long range, Knueppel is on track to break rookie benchmarks, and he stands as a vital asset to a team capable of ascending into the Eastern Conference’s playoff contention.
Coach of the Year (COY)
Primary Nominee: J.B. Bickerstaff
The Coach of the Year honor is consistently a fiercely competitive category featuring numerous deserving contenders—however, if the Detroit Pistons conclude the season with the NBA’s premier winning percentage, as they currently hold at the All-Star pause, then Bickerstaff’s victory is virtually assured, having been the runner-up in the previous season.
Contenders Include: Several emerging coaches whose squads have surpassed anticipations are competing for Coach of the Year, most notably Jordan Ott of Phoenix, Mitch Johnson of San Antonio, and Joe Mazzulla of Boston, whose team has navigated the departure of five rotational athletes from the prior season to remain a strong contender in the Eastern Conference.
Most Improved Player (MIP)
Foremost Candidates: Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson
This accolade appears to be a close contest between two inaugural All-Stars who are meticulously filling stat sheets for play-in tournament hopefuls. Avdija records averages of 25.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, whereas Johnson posts 23.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists—with the Trail Blazers and Hawks separated by merely a single game and 0.7 points in net rating. Provided both athletes maintain their health, this competition is expected to be decided in the final moments.
Other Nominees: Customarily, the Most Improved Player category boasts a greater number of captivating contenders than any other award. This season’s cohort encompasses Jalen Duren, anchoring the paint for the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons; Keyonte George, independently expediting Utah’s trajectory to competitiveness; Dillon Brooks and Michael Porter Jr., each displaying novel proficiencies with their new teams; Ryan Rollins, transitioning from a two-way contract player to a verified NBA starter; and numerous other emergent talents throughout the association.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
Primary Challenger: Victor Wembanyama
Provided Wembanyama meets the eligibility requirement of playing a minimum of 65 games, he stands as the overwhelming favorite to secure the award. Wembanyama registers a league-leading average of 2.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per contest, and no other athlete impacts rival offensive tactics quite like the Spurs’ center. His primary obstacle will be qualifying for consideration, having already missed 14 games and with only three additional absences permitted.
Also Contending: Chet Holmgren
Should Wembanyama fail to reach the 65-game threshold, the competition expands to include numerous other prospects. Holmgren could emerge as the frontrunner in such a situation, distinguishing himself as the top individual performer from the NBA’s premier defense. He limits opponents to a mere 47% shooting percentage at the rim, ranking as the league’s second-lowest figure. (Only the currently suspended Isaiah Stewart is more restrictive, at 43%.) The adaptable play of Scottie Barnes and Amen Thompson renders them deserving of recognition. Furthermore, Rudy Gobert, a perennial DPOY candidate, is discreetly delivering yet another commendable season.
1:48
How far does Stephen A. believe Wemby can lead the Spurs?
Stephen A. Smith explains why Victor Wembanyama can take the Spurs to the Western Conference finals this season.
Who are the players already ineligible?
Multiple prominent players are already disqualified from receiving end-of-season honors as they will not fulfill the 65-game participation requirement, notably Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Franz Wagner, Austin Reaves, and Jalen Williams. James’ non-participation concludes an unparalleled 21-season streak of All-NBA selections. Antetokounmpo had earned nine successive All-NBA team placements, encompassing seven consecutive first-team nods.
Who are the players at risk of being ineligible?
Numerous additional star athletes face the threat of disqualification from award contention, being a single injury away due to time already forfeited before the All-Star hiatus. Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry can each sit out just one more contest to retain their eligibility. Victor Wembanyama is permitted three additional absences. Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker, and Evan Mobley can miss four. Luka Doncic is allowed five. Anthony Edwards can miss six. And Deni Avdija is granted seven.
— Zach Kram
Draft lottery watch
Observing the competition among the lowest-ranked teams in the standings can be approached from two distinct perspectives.
The initial perspective involves whether additional teams will face penalties—or even forfeit draft selections—for breaches of the player availability guidelines and for actions deemed harmful to the league.
During his yearly All-Star press conference, Commissioner Adam Silver indicated that the league is investigating various solutions to address the issue of intentional losing, simultaneously clarifying that all measures are under consideration, including divesting teams of their draft picks should they persist in contravening regulations.
Given the substantial alterations to lottery probabilities, concluding the season at the lower echelons of the standings no longer ensures a premier selection in the upcoming draft.
Indiana and Utah, two franchises recently penalized, will surrender their first-round pick if it lands beyond a stipulated protected band. The Pacers’ first selection will transfer to the LA Clippers if it falls within positions 5-9, and the Thunder will acquire Utah’s first if it is outside the top eight following the lottery drawing. The Wizards, likewise, retain their first pick if it is among the top eight.
An intriguing development to monitor involves Oklahoma City and San Antonio concluding the season at the pinnacle of the standings, yet also possessing a lottery selection in June. The Thunder hold the Clippers’ initial draft choice, and San Antonio is entitled to exchange first-round picks with Atlanta (both the Clippers and Hawks are play-in contenders). Atlanta, furthermore, owns the more advantageous first-round pick between Milwaukee and New Orleans. — Marks
