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Matt Miller
Various Writers
Fernando Mendoza experienced a truly remarkable 2025 campaign, beginning with his move from Cal to Indiana and culminating in his guidance of the Hoosiers to their inaugural national title. This stellar showing, which also earned him a Heisman Trophy, solidified his position as the undisputed top quarterback prospect for the 2026 NFL draft. However, how does his potential stack up against signal-callers selected in the first round over the last few years?
My response involved compiling all seventeen quarterbacks chosen in the first round between 2021 and 2025, subsequently integrating Mendoza – my sole quarterback rated as a first-rounder for 2026 – into this collective group. Notables such as Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye are featured on this roster.
I gathered opinions from NFL scouts, front-office personnel, and sports commentators to construct this compilation, and pre-draft assessments constituted the exclusive criterion for inclusion. Although I incorporated each quarterback’s professional career achievements to offer extra background, these accomplishments do not influence their placement in these standings. This exercise simply presents these eighteen quarterbacks grouped as if they were all part of the identical draft cohort.
Therefore, who holds the premier position among quarterback prospects over the past half-decade, and what is Mendoza’s relative standing?
Jump to top QB from each class:
2021 | 2022 | 2023
2024 | 2025 | 2026
Selected: First overall, Chicago Bears
The term “potential” can be daunting for prospective players, yet Williams possessed an abundance of it, both then and now. Standing 6 feet 1 inch tall and weighing 220 pounds, he exhibits formidable arm power and an impressive knack for generating plays while mobile. A genuine game-changer and a virtuoso on the field, he secured the Heisman Trophy in 2022, subsequently passing for 3,633 yards and contributing to 41 total touchdowns for USC in 2023.
Notwithstanding the considerable pre-draft anticipation, his professional journey has involved gradual development. Following a inconsistent inaugural season where his QBR (46.7) placed him 28th among 33 eligible quarterbacks, Williams significantly advanced in 2025 under new head coach Ben Johnson. He achieved a club-record 3,942 passing yards and guided the Bears to the divisional playoff round. While questions about his precision persist (he registered the league’s highest off-target percentage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats), he is progressively approaching the fulfillment of the high expectations surrounding his NFL entry.
Selected: First overall, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence was widely considered the subsequent elite NFL quarterback talent even prior to his first play for Clemson. The widely recognized five-star high school prospect assumed a starting role for 2½ years with the Tigers, achieving a 34-2 win-loss record and accumulating 90 collegiate passing touchdowns.
Lawrence’s blend of powerful arm, agile movement, inventive play, and his towering 6-foot-6 stature garnered significant attention in anticipation of the 2021 draft. Following a challenging initial professional season, he demonstrated considerable progress by delivering 25 touchdown passes in 2022, guiding the Jaguars to an AFC South championship and a playoff victory against the Chargers. After facing difficulties in 2023 and participating in an abbreviated 2024 season due to injury, Lawrence excelled in his first year under coach Liam Coen’s offensive scheme last season, recording 4,007 passing yards and 29 touchdowns to propel the Jaguars to a 13-4 standing.
Selected: Second overall, Washington Commanders
Daniels’ exceptional skill at throwing deep passes, coupled with his capacity to exploit defensive gaps through rushing and his tendency for making significant plays, culminated in a Heisman Trophy win in 2023. His outstanding performance that year propelled his draft status from a prospective third-day selection to the second overall pick. The sole reservations regarding Daniels pertained to his slender 6-foot-4, 210-pound physique, particularly given his assertive running approach. Certain scouts also wondered whether his phenomenal season at LSU was merely attributable to his age of 23, competing against younger adversaries.
Daniels dispelled these apprehensions during his unprecedented Offensive Rookie of the Year tenure, guiding Washington to their initial NFC Championship Game appearance since the 1991 season. The Commanders experienced a slight decline last season, as numerous injuries restricted him to seven games. Nevertheless, he projects as one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL when he is in full health.
Selected: Third overall, New England Patriots
Maye was frequently likened to Justin Herbert due to his physical stature (6 feet 4 inches, 225 pounds), the potency of his arm, and his robust running capabilities. As a redshirt freshman in 2022, he enhanced the North Carolina offense, completing 38 touchdown passes against only seven interceptions, and adding seven more scores on the ground. Maye’s statistics were less compelling in 2023 (24 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions), yet his inherent talent remained sufficiently remarkable for the Commanders to contemplate drafting him at the second position, before the Patriots secured him one selection afterward.
Maye commenced 13 games during his initial professional season in 2024, performing capably despite the Patriots’ challenging 4-13 record. He demonstrated substantial progress in his second year, topping the NFL in QBR (77.1) while accumulating 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He secured second place in MVP balloting and guided New England to the AFC championship contest.
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Why Stephen A. still believes in Drake Maye
Stephen A. Smith explains why he still has faith in Drake Maye despite a “precipitous drop-off” in the postseason for the Patriots.
Selected: First overall, Carolina Panthers
At Alabama, Young demonstrated exceptional finesse as a pocket passer, exhibiting masterful precision and synchronized play. He was characterized by his resilience, composure, and inventive approach. His physical dimensions, standing 5 feet 10 inches and weighing 204 pounds, represent the sole factor for his lower placement on this ranking—a aspect that negatively impacted his pre-draft assessment. Young’s Heisman-winning 2021 season was succeeded by a 2022 performance where he amassed 3,328 yards, 32 touchdown passes, and five interceptions for the Crimson Tide.
His initial professional years were challenging, leading to his benching early in his second season. However, Young recuperated after reclaiming the starting position, achieving the 12th-highest QBR (65.8) from Week 10 through the conclusion of the 2024 season. His third year saw fluctuating performance, ending 22nd in QBR (47.6) but also generating 3,011 passing yards and 23 touchdowns as he guided the Panthers to their first playoff appearance in eight years.
Selected: Second overall, New York Jets
It may now appear to be a faded recollection, but certain teams in the 2021 draft evaluated Wilson more favorably than Lawrence. Wilson performed effectively both off-balance and outside of predetermined plays, overwhelming opponents with a formidable deep pass and an exceptional knack for eluding pass rushers. Furthermore, he reached his pinnacle at an opportune moment, truly excelling during his junior year and overcoming the injury problems that characterized his initial two seasons at BYU.
Wilson has since served as an instructive example, as talent evaluators elevated his draft standing after a spectacular collegiate season and an even more impressive pro day demonstration. He was moved to the Broncos subsequent to three challenging years in New York, where he accumulated 23 touchdown passes against 25 interceptions and completed merely 57% of his throws. He saw no action on the field with Denver in 2024 and appeared as a reserve in four contests for the Dolphins last season.
Selected: Second overall, Houston Texans
Having started 25 games at Ohio State, Stroud concluded his collegiate career with an impressive 21-4 victory record and an extraordinary 85-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He satisfied all criteria concerning arm power, agility, composure, and resilience. Certain talent evaluators extolled his concluding display—a postseason confrontation with Georgia—along with his combine performance. Furthermore, some favored the established certainty of Stroud’s game film over the uncertainty presented by Young’s stature preceding the 2023 draft. Stroud concluded his final college season with an 88.9 Total QBR (ranking second nationally) and achieved a 66.3% pass completion rate.
He quickly made an impact in Houston, securing the Offensive Rookie of the Year title in 2023 and guiding the Texans to playoff victories in each of his initial three seasons. His journey hasn’t been without its challenges, as Stroud experienced a slight decline in his second year during 2024 (12 interceptions and a 46.8 QBR) and committed four interceptions in Houston’s divisional round defeat to the Patriots last season.
University: Indiana
My present comprehensive evaluation: Second position
Mendoza, the premier quarterback in this year’s draft pool, has not generated the same level of excitement as previous top overall selections, yet he merits extensive praise as he approaches his pre-draft evaluation period. Mendoza presents as a polished, precise passer, distinguished by his impeccable accuracy, timely decision-making, and sufficient athleticism to challenge opposing defenses. An AFC East scout commented, “He will exhaust you with his methodical play and then decisively defeat you by a wide margin.”
Mendoza’s performance escalated dramatically in 2025, as he amassed 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdown throws, and merely six interceptions, culminating in his Heisman Trophy win and a national championship. The similarities between this achievement and Joe Burrow’s final season at LSU before becoming the 2020 draft’s first pick are notable and justified. Like Burrow, Mendoza performs optimally from within the pocket and appears to elevate his game when faced with intense defensive pressure.
Selected: Tenth overall, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy departed Michigan subsequent to his true junior year, having guided the Wolverines to a national title. Talent evaluators expressed apprehension regarding his comparative inexperience and less striking offensive output within Jim Harbaugh’s system, which primarily emphasized rushing plays and a robust defense. After a commendable pre-draft period, McCarthy was ranked as my fourth-best quarterback in the 2024 group. However, had he remained at Michigan for an additional year, it is highly probable he would have been the top quarterback in 2025.
McCarthy sustained a knee injury, which caused him to miss his entire inaugural NFL season after competing with Sam Darnold for the starting position during training camp. Last season, he was plagued by injuries and fluctuating performance, completing just 57.6% of his passes and registering more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (11). Consequently, his role as a starter appears uncertain as the 2026 season approaches.
Selected: Third overall, San Francisco 49ers
Lance, a commanding 6-foot-4, 224-pound athlete, participated as a starter in merely 17 contests—all against FCS opponents—at North Dakota State, which included a single game during his concluding season. Yet, this limited exposure proved sufficient to persuade 49ers General Manager John Lynch and Coach Kyle Shanahan to move up in the draft for his selection. He impressed talent evaluators with his considerable potential and his aptitude for dismantling defenses through both his rushing prowess and his acute field awareness.
Lance’s professional tenure never fully materialized, as he sustained a season-ending ankle injury in the second week of the 2022 season. Brock Purdy assumed the starting quarterback role for the 49ers late that year and excelled, leading to Lance’s trade to the Cowboys for a fourth-round selection before the 2023 season. Lance has seen minimal action since that transaction, fulfilling the role of the Cowboys’ third-string quarterback for two campaigns prior to joining the Chargers as a free agent in 2025. He began the regular-season finale for Los Angeles and made brief appearances in three other matchups.
Selected: Fourth overall, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson epitomizes the quintessential contemporary quarterback: sizable, powerful, and swift, possessing an arm capable of effortlessly launching the ball 75 yards when provided adequate space. However, he initiated only 13 games during his college career and attempted fewer than 300 passes within a Florida offensive scheme that never solidified under coaches Dan Mullen and Billy Napier. Richardson additionally completed a mere 54.7% of his throws and recorded 24 touchdown passes against 15 interceptions in college. Consequently, despite considerable promise when the Colts drafted him as the fourth pick, there was also substantial inherent peril.
Richardson would occupy the highest position on this ranking if the assessment solely focused on physical attributes. He possesses an exceptionally powerful arm and recorded a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Nevertheless, he faced criticism as a prospective player due to his limited experience and accuracy issues. These factors—along with an inaugural professional season marked by injuries—impeded his progress.
Across three seasons, Richardson has participated in just 17 out of 51 potential contests, contending with injuries, a brief removal from play in 2024, losing the starting contest to Daniel Jones before last season, and an unusual orbital fracture sustained during pregame routines in October. He has accumulated 13 interceptions versus 11 touchdown passes, alongside 10 rushing touchdowns and nine fumbles. Furthermore, Richardson has now obtained authorization from the Colts to explore a trade.
Selected: Eleventh overall, Chicago Bears
Upon Fields’ entry into the draft, certain scouts and assessors considered him to be on par with Lawrence, mirroring their evaluations coming out of high school in 2018. Conversely, others held the view that Fields’ performance was bolstered by the strategic framework and the caliber of players surrounding him at Ohio State. This partly explains why the two-time Heisman finalist, who achieved a 20-2 record with 67 touchdown passes against merely nine interceptions, did not remain within the top 10 selections in a league that prioritizes quarterbacks.
Fields experienced a challenging initial season (31.4 QBR) but delivered 17 touchdown passes and accumulated 1,143 rushing yards in 2022. Fields’ QBR declined by almost 10 points in 2023 (from 56.3 to 46.9) prior to his trade to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-round draft choice. He spent one season with Pittsburgh before finalizing a two-year contract with the Jets during the previous offseason’s free agency period. Fields’ participation with New York in 2025 was restricted to nine games due to physical ailments and erratic play (57.7% completion rate and a 37.8 QBR), casting uncertainty upon his enduring NFL career.
Selected: Fifteenth overall, New England Patriots
Jones, who was the fifth quarterback chosen in the 2021 draft, emerged from Alabama as a well-regarded pocket passer, possessing moderate potential but a dependable baseline of performance. He topped the FBS in completion rate (77.4%) and ranked second in touchdown throws (41) as he steered the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020.
Pre-draft analyses that drew parallels to Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington indicated a deficiency in superior arm power and agility in Jones’ playing style, yet they simultaneously underscored his attributes of effective and precise passing. This pattern was evident early in his career, as Jones completed 67.6% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, guiding the Patriots to the playoffs in his inaugural season.
Jones earned a Pro Bowl selection that year, but his performance subsequently deteriorated over the following two seasons. He was moved to the Jaguars for a sixth-round draft choice in 2024 and participated in 10 games after Lawrence’s injury sidelined him, tallying eight touchdowns against eight interceptions. He experienced a revitalization after signing with the 49ers during the previous offseason, making eight starts in place of the injured Purdy. He recorded 2,151 passing yards and 13 touchdowns with a QBR of 62.3, positioning him as a potentially appealing trade target for a team in search of a quarterback this offseason.
Selected: Twelfth overall, Denver Broncos
Nix received an assessment as a prospective early second-round selection with the potential to be a starter, attributed to his precision, agility, and extensive background—which included a three-year tenure at Auburn before his transfer to Oregon in 2022. Nix’s proficiency in executing plays while in motion and his leadership qualities were considerable advantages in his evaluation, yet his most significant strength was his evolution throughout his final two collegiate years, culminating in a 2023 season with 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions. His age, as he reached 24 years old before his initial professional season, was the primary factor preventing a higher rating.
Nix commenced his professional career effectively, guiding the Broncos to their first playoff berth since 2015. He advanced further in his second season, accumulating 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in 2025 to contribute to the Broncos’ 14-3 record and an appearance in the AFC Championship Game. He suffered an ankle fracture late in Denver’s divisional round triumph over the Bills, but Nix (who has recorded 54 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns over two seasons) has integrated smoothly into Sean Payton’s offensive scheme.
Selected: First overall, Tennessee Titans
Ward, who transitioned from Incarnate Word to Washington State, and subsequently to Miami, substantially elevated the performance of each collegiate program he participated in. In 2024, he spearheaded all FBS quarterbacks with 39 touchdown passes and secured the second position in passing yardage (4,313). Ward possesses the innate arm ability to execute every pass within an offensive scheme, employing a shortstop-like throwing motion when required to locate receiving lanes.
Nevertheless, assessors held divergent opinions regarding Ward. Some talent evaluators with whom I conversed considered him a bona fide top-five player in his cohort, asserting he would be a first-round quarterback in the majority of draft years. Others contended he was more accurately a second-round caliber player whose standing was enhanced due to the scarcity of premier quarterback talent in his particular draft class. My inclination is to concur with the latter perspective.
Ward’s initial professional statistics were challenging, as he completed 59.8% of his passes for 3,169 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His QBR of 33.2 positioned him 28th and last among all eligible quarterbacks. However, his head coach was dismissed early in his rookie season, and his QBR showed marked improvement in his final eight games (48.3, 20th) compared to his initial nine (21.9, last), indicating the possibility of a significant improvement in his second year.
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Brian Daboll excited to work with Cam Ward
Turron Davenport explains how excited Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is to work with QB Cam Ward.
Selected: Eighth overall, Atlanta Falcons
Undoubtedly, the most significant astonishment of the 2024 first round revolved around Penix’s draft position and the team that chose him. The Falcons highly valued his deep throwing ability and his progression at Washington subsequent to three seasons at Indiana. Penix concluded his collegiate career with exceptional momentum, delivering 67 touchdown passes against merely 19 interceptions in his final two years. He guided Washington to the Pac-12 championship and the national title game in 2023, following an unbeaten regular season.
Penix’s overall prospect evaluation would have been elevated, yet reservations persisted concerning his four consecutive season-ending injuries and his age (24). The injury aspect resurfaced in 2025, as a torn ACL sidelined him after 10 games. The Falcons’ initial strategy for Penix upon entering the NFL involved having him develop behind seasoned quarterback Kirk Cousins in 2024. However, Penix ultimately participated in five contests, starting three, as a rookie, before assuming the starting role last season, where he completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,939 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Selected: Twenty-fifth overall, New York Giants
Dart did not feature as a first-round quarterback on my 2025 evaluation list, instead placing 37th overall; nevertheless, the Ole Miss alumnus became a starting player for the Giants when Russell Wilson’s performance proved insufficient. The Giants’ decision to trade up and select Dart last April was widely regarded as an overreach within the league. However, as a competing general manager remarked to me the week following the draft, “Your or my ranking of him is irrelevant if they required a quarterback and believe he is the right fit.”
Dart performed competently across his 15 appearances, accumulating 15 touchdown passes against only five interceptions, simultaneously demonstrating a versatile threat capability (487 rushing yards, nine touchdowns) that enables him to advance the ball once he enhances his self-protection. Injuries resulting from significant impacts during scrambles restricted Dart’s playing time and will constitute a vital area of improvement as he enters his second year.
Selected: Twentieth overall, Pittsburgh Steelers
When talent evaluators were tasked with assessing Pickett’s performance, their perspectives were varied. He ultimately became the sole quarterback chosen in the initial round of a less formidable 2022 class, and the only signal-caller drafted within the first 73 selections (the most proficient 2022 quarterback, Purdy, was picked with the final selection of the draft). Pickett delivered 42 touchdown passes during his concluding season at Pitt, yet he also displayed a deficiency in arm power.
He completed merely 63% of his passes and recorded nine interceptions across 13 games in his debut professional season. Pickett failed to solidify his position as Pittsburgh’s enduring solution, relinquishing his starting role in 2023 before being moved to the Eagles in 2024. He was involved in two additional trades in 2025: from the Eagles to the Browns in the spring, and subsequently from the Browns to the Raiders during the preseason.
