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Jeremy Woo
Multiple Authors
Anticipation for the 2026 NBA draft is significantly elevated due to an exceptionally talented cohort of first-year players, evident in numerous teams deliberately underperforming to enhance their chances in the lottery selection.
The 2017 draft saw a then-unprecedented eleven first-year players chosen within the top fourteen lottery selections. The current class is poised to rival, and possibly surpass, that achievement: ESPN’s top nine ranked prospects are all freshmen, and an additional five are positioned within the top twenty, close enough to contend. Every one of these individuals, with the sole exception of Washington’s center Hannes Steinbach, is anticipated to participate in the NCAA tournament, establishing this as an unparalleled collection of talent.
For those who have diligently tracked the draft throughout the year, or for newcomers just engaging with March Madness, an overview is provided on the current status of the premier first-year prospects, their potential for advancement during the season’s concluding phase, and the primary uncertainties linked to their scouting reports.
Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
Latest rank: 1
Age: 19.1
Peterson is recognized as the most naturally talented offensive player in the draft, distinguished by his exceptional ability to generate shots and his proficiency as a long-range scorer, affording him the most significant offensive potential among his peers. Consequently, he was widely regarded by NBA circles as the leading candidate for the top overall selection heading into the season. However, his tenure at Kansas has not unfolded as anticipated; he has contended with various injuries and ailments, drawing scrutiny for his inconsistent presence on the court. Peterson has averaged 27.9 minutes per contest, starting 19 of the Jayhawks’ 30 matches, occasionally being forced to exit games prematurely due to cramping episodes.
Nonetheless, Peterson’s array of skills presents few discernible weaknesses. Talent evaluators I have consulted indicate no significant concerns regarding his court vision or athletic burst, attributes they believe have been constrained by his designated role within Kansas’ offensive strategy and his fluctuating physical condition. The evolving circumstances have introduced considerably more intrigue than initially projected.
The big question: How strong is Peterson’s hold on the No. 1 spot?
The scarcity of definitive details concerning Peterson’s physical well-being has created more uncertainties than assurances for NBA franchises. Despite prevailing negative public sentiment, the scouts and executives I’ve engaged with have uniformly stressed the importance of exercising patience, noting that a comprehensive evaluation of his health will not be possible until NBA teams review his medical records at the pre-draft combine.
Substantial backing for Peterson persists within the NBA, recognizing him as the most gifted prospect in this draft class, yet his inaugural collegiate season has complicated the choice for the first overall pick. The outcome on draft night will hinge on the appetite for risk of the lottery-winning team and their assessment of Peterson’s future path. While his inherent talent is rarely disputed, this must be weighed against his health concerns, especially given that AJ Dybantsa offers an equally strong, and less problematic, option.
Peterson has logged over 30 minutes in his last four consecutive appearances, yet his shooting percentage during that period stands at a mere 32%. Should he fully recover, an impressive and healthy performance in March could powerfully reaffirm why many across the league were so enthusiastic about him at the start of the academic year. The most effective method for Peterson to redefine his public perception is through outstanding play.
AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Latest rank: 2
Age: 19.1
Dybantsa experienced an outstanding February and has demonstrated considerable progress, addressing earlier concerns regarding his judgment, choice of shots, and perimeter shooting. He is arguably the most physically talented prospect in his year, a forceful attacker who has averaged 26.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists over 17 Big 12 contests, topping the league in scoring. With talent evaluators scrutinizing his jump shot, Dybantsa has begun attempting three-pointers with increased assurance, achieving a respectable 34.7% accuracy from deep. His decision-making has sharpened, and he has displayed greater confidence as the season advanced.
During his peak performances, Dybantsa undeniably embodies the characteristics of a top-tier prospect, positioning himself as a formidable contender for the first pick and potentially a more dependable, secure selection given the challenges faced by Peterson this season. Due to his stature and athletic endowments, numerous NBA scouts contend that Dybantsa possesses the most significant two-way development potential among all players in this class.
The big question: How else can Dybantsa strengthen his case at No. 1?
Dybantsa has already achieved substantial progress in narrowing the perceived gap, and with Richie Saunders sidelined for the remainder of the campaign, his responsibilities have expanded further. Nevertheless, the Cougars have suffered four losses in their most recent five games and are entering the postseason with a declining trajectory. He will be expected to assist them in reversing this trend on a prominent platform. His prospects would also improve if he could intensify his defensive commitment, an aspect where he demonstrates considerable potential but occasionally exhibits inconsistent effort. While part of this stems from his extensive offensive duties, it would be beneficial to re-emphasize his defensive ceiling to NBA executives, given his 7-foot wingspan and versatile defensive capabilities across multiple positions.
The competition for the top overall pick is evolving into a subjective evaluation for whichever franchise secures the lottery win. Should Dybantsa sustain his elite performance and successfully present himself as a more secure option compared to Peterson, while offering comparable long-term potential, it would undoubtedly bolster his argument. NBA organizations are currently engaged in subtle distinctions during their private deliberations.
Cameron Boozer, F/C, Duke
Latest rank: 3
Age: 18.6
Boozer has fulfilled the elevated anticipations set before the season, affirming his established standing as a catalyst for victory in basketball. His unwavering performance and remarkable statistical output—he is on track to surpass Zion Williamson’s box plus-minus record, as reported by BartTorvik.com—as the youngest talent in this collection, overwhelmingly influences predictive analytics. A compelling argument can be made that he is the most NBA-prepared athlete in the class, serving as the primary engine for Duke’s formidable offense, which boasts a 28-2 record. Scouts have drawn parallels to All-Star caliber individuals such as Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Love, and Al Horford, with the potential for even greater stardom given his youth (being one of the youngest prospects available) and impressive statistical contributions.
While Boozer is commonly characterized as an interior player, his distinct offensive prowess stems from his capacity to operate facing the rim, execute rapid choices, create opportunities for his colleagues, and extend the court (shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc). A substantial portion of his worth truly manifests on the outer edges of the court, where he proves highly effective in two-player plays and possesses the physical power to exploit defensive mismatches. The further Boozer can propel the Blue Devils through the March tournament, the more he solidifies his claim as the most secure selection in the upcoming draft.
Among the top three prospects, Boozer is enjoying the most successful season, and he alone is leading a squad with genuine aspirations for a championship. Despite his commanding presence, however, current projections suggest he will be the third player chosen in June.
The big question: Why isn’t Boozer a frontrunner ?
Boozer’s offensive skill is indisputable, with expectations that he will immediately be a adaptable, influential performer. The reservation among NBA talent assessors centers on the physical aspects of his play, as he exhibits limited explosiveness, offers insufficient rim protection, and frequently finds it challenging to close out on perimeter shooters due to his lateral quickness—deficiencies often exploited in NBA playoff scenarios. Despite possessing a 7-foot wingspan at 6-foot-9, he does not possess a significant height advantage for a frontcourt player and lacks the agility required to consistently defend perimeter forwards. Boozer’s superior positioning and innate basketball sense will therefore need to bolster his defensive contribution.
Although it seems improbable that Boozer will ultimately be selected first overall, it would not be astonishing for him to receive serious consideration for that position under specific circumstances. For instance, a data-driven organization like the Memphis Grizzlies might heavily weigh him as their top choice. Should the pick owned by the Oklahoma City Thunder, originally from the LA Clippers, unexpectedly ascend to the No. 1 spot, the Thunder—already abundant in perimeter talent—would possess the advantage of prioritizing team synergy, and Boozer could naturally complement Chet Holmgren.
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Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina
Latest rank: 4
Age: 19.6
Wilson’s phenomenal season faced an abrupt halt following a hand fracture on February 10th, yet he had already established a significant presence, affirming his status as a top-five talent capable of influencing interior play through his energy and athleticism, alongside holding latent skill development potential. He is striving to rejoin the team in March, as the Tar Heels prepare for the NCAA tournament, affording NBA franchises a final assessment of his abilities under intense competition.
Remarkably agile vertically, Wilson has largely excelled owing to his relentless effort, securing additional possessions through rebounding and efficiently converting opportunities within 15 feet (72% near the basket with 67 dunks, and a 61% success rate inside the arc). Wilson remains underdeveloped as a ball-handler and lacks consistency as a three-point shooter. Foreseeing his ultimate potential necessitates a greater degree of speculation compared to his contemporaries. Nonetheless, he possesses an outside possibility of ascending into the top three, contingent upon which teams advance in the lottery selection.
The big question: What’s the argument for Wilson in the top three?
From a technical skill standpoint, Wilson is still in the early stages of his development, and forecasting him as a top-three selection demands a degree of speculative vision, leading to divergent assessments. He possesses the kind of explosive athleticism that could evolve into a positional advantage on both offense and defense, featuring commendable passing instincts and scoring ability for his stature when operating in the mid-range. The most optimistic outcome would entail a significant enhancement in his diverse skill set, allowing him to more effectively leverage his 6-foot-10 frame to exploit defensive mismatches, concurrently maintaining unwavering defensive focus, refining his court placement, and ultimately becoming a genuinely impactful player on both ends.
Certain NBA evaluators rank Wilson above Boozer, driven by the potential for his growth and the value placed on how his vertical leaping ability and shot-rejection capabilities could translate into comprehensive impact on both sides of the court. Boozer is unquestionably the more refined athlete, yet a team aiming to construct a more agile, defensively adaptable frontcourt might consider Wilson and invest in his future development.
Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Latest rank: 5
Age: 19.2
Flemings began the season with limited anticipation, initially ranked 22nd among his cohort in the SC Next Top 100. This perception rapidly shifted as NBA scouts observed Houston, with a succession of impressive displays elevating him prominently on draft boards. His sudden acceleration, aptitude for reaching desired positions, court awareness as a facilitator, and leadership attributes have all been apparent, establishing him as the standout player for a team that reached the 2025 NCAA championship game.
Although Flemings’ remarkable early-season effectiveness has normalized, the enthusiasm surrounding his potential persists, as his superior ability to alter speeds and his capacity for above-the-rim play suggest a pathway to elite status. Houston possesses a legitimate opportunity for another Final Four appearance and will require his peak performance to achieve it, offering him a significant stage in March to argue for himself as potentially the second guard selected.
The big question: How real is Flemings’ shooting leap?
Perimeter shooting was the predominant worry regarding Flemings upon his high school graduation, specifically from three-point distance, where his unconventional shooting form poses challenges for future projections. Currently displaying season shooting percentages of 48%/37%/84%, Flemings has surpassed expectations, yet his shot release resembles a single, forward throwing motion incorporating extra movement in his elbow and arms. He demonstrates greater comfort in the mid-range area, where his inherent feel and capacity to elevate and create separation from defenders are prominent. However, achieving elite NBA playmaking status is challenging without the capability to consistently threaten defenders from deep, and Flemings must continue to validate this aspect to unlock his full potential.
Flemings has recently encountered increased challenges, as Houston’s other outside players have struggled with their shooting, allowing opposing defenses to heavily concentrate in the paint and restrict his operational space. Should his Cougars teammates find their offensive rhythm, it would enhance his prospects for a complete emergence in the post-season. Irrespective of Flemings’ performance in March, nevertheless, NBA franchises will intensely scrutinize his shooting during individual workouts as they differentiate among guards within his talent bracket.
Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Latest rank: 6
Age: 19.1
Wagler represents one of the most compelling personal narratives in the draft, having transformed from a three-star recruit devoid of national recognition into an indispensable component for Illinois, propelling himself into lottery discussions as the cornerstone of a top-10 squad. Significant discussion surrounding Wagler emerged in the autumn from talent evaluators who observed Illinois’ practices, yet no one could have foreseen the magnitude of his emergence, highlighted by a 46-point performance against Purdue on January 24th, which served as his definitive breakthrough.
Operating as a 6-foot-6 point guard, Wagler’s proficiency in maneuvering through screen-and-roll actions, his innate talent for executing the optimal decision, and his impressive three-point shooting (42%) have formed the foundational strength of one of collegiate basketball’s premier offensive units. It is uncommon for a guard of his age to achieve such a degree of accomplishment in a primary ball-handling capacity, particularly one with limited prior experience in high-level basketball. Although he has occasionally faced difficulties scoring inside the three-point line (48.1% on two-pointers), NBA talent assessors perceive unfulfilled potential as he accrues physical strength and on-court exposure.
The big question: How high can Wagler rise?
A genuine possibility exists for Wagler to be the second guard selected following Peterson, potentially entering the top five, contingent on the lottery results and how franchises evaluate the collective talents of Flemings, Wagler, Darius Acuff Jr., and Mikel Brown Jr. As the tallest, youngest, and most recently developing among these four, Wagler’s unique progression and desirable player type will present a potent case. While a direct comparison might be inappropriate, Wagler has drawn stylistic parallels to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with scouts keenly observing his composure, judgment, and ingenuity as an offensive threat.
Illinois holds a credible chance at reaching the Final Four if Wagler performs optimally, and an impactful postseason showing could bolster his standing with NBA front offices who may not have focused on him early during the Big Ten tournament in Chicago. His physical attributes for his position, shooting prowess, and unquantifiable qualities could prove crucial differentiating factors as lottery-bound teams conduct thorough examinations of these guards.
Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Latest rank: 7
Age: 19.2
Ament reversed his early-season struggles during SEC competition, assembling a stellar period of play before sustaining a right leg injury on Saturday against Alabama. His availability for the postseason is currently uncertain, having sat out Tennessee’s Tuesday game at South Carolina, but his impressive February performances, where he averaged 19 points and six rebounds per game in league play, solidified his position on draft prospect lists. Nonetheless, his less-than-optimal efficiency presented a point of concern.
Although the rise of other talents suggests Ament is no longer guaranteed a top-five selection, he is still anticipated to be a top-10 pick owing to his physical dimensions for his role, his inherent abilities, and his unquantifiable assets. Standing at 6-foot-10, he possesses the capability to elevate and shoot over opponents, and his potential is largely untapped as he develops physically and becomes more accustomed to his stature. Given the abundance of guards in this particular segment of the draft, teams not specifically seeking a primary ball-handler might consider him a priority as a developing forward, capable of enhancing the talent level of a team’s frontcourt.
The big question: Can Ament make a leap as a shot creator?
When Ament is successfully converting his shots, it becomes clear why he was universally regarded as a top-five prospect at the season’s outset. The prototype of a large wing player who can score typically offers a straightforward and appealing narrative for NBA teams. Forwards of his dimensions who possess the ability to dribble, distribute, and shoot are more inclined to establish themselves as regular rotation players, at the very least. The paramount uncertainty surrounding Ament centers on the extent to which he can enhance his playmaking capabilities over time, which will necessitate refining his ball-handling, footwork, and shooting precision.
Ament’s performance this season has somewhat convoluted that aspect of his scouting report: He lacks explosive athleticism, occasionally finds it difficult to create space from defenders, and has not demonstrated impressive rates of finishing at the basket (54%) or converting three-pointers (32.8%). His playing stance is upright, and his ball-handling skills are not yet highly refined, but franchises will aim to assess these attributes in private sessions to determine his developmental ceiling. Regardless, Ament is expected to enjoy an enduring and productive NBA career, with several attainable areas for improvement that could position him as a perennial starter.
Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Latest rank: 8
Age: 19.3
Acuff has redefined the perception of his playing style since high school, demonstrating that he is far from a self-centered player by exhibiting his capacity to distribute the ball, select opportune moments, and guide Arkansas to victories. He has compiled an impressive season as both a scorer and a facilitator, minimizing turnovers, converting nearly 43% of his three-pointers, and elevating a team that lacks significant depth or alternative playmaking support. Acuff’s remarkable 49-point outburst against Alabama on February 18th further solidified his standing as a lottery-level talent, and he currently tops the SEC in points (22) and assists (6.2) per contest, while maintaining an average of only two turnovers.
Despite standing at 6-foot-3, making him the shortest guard within this selection, Acuff’s physical power, agility, and low dribbling stance afford him a unique athletic edge. He proves exceptionally difficult to prevent from navigating to his desired positions on the court. His scoring proficiency extends across all three offensive zones. Furthermore, his resilience contributes to establishing the team’s intensity. Primary reservations revolve around his defensive contributions; while Acuff demonstrates a willingness to contend, he does not create a substantial visual deterrence for opposing perimeter shooters.
The big question: Where can Acuff separate himself from the other top guards?
Acuff’s ultimate position in this hierarchy is yet to be determined, though he is arguably the most refined player, potentially rendering him a more secure choice compared to Flemings, Wagler, or Brown. While those three possess clear arguments for their high potential owing to their stature and athletic attributes—Acuff’s physical build is nearing its maximum—his reliable ball handling and capacity to control game tempo are distinguishing qualities. He has maintained the most consistent performance among this cohort throughout the current season. His playing style may not always be visually captivating, but his on-court efficacy is undeniable.
In the end, it is conceivable that lottery-bound organizations might lean towards the perceived higher potential of other players, an aspect beyond Acuff’s influence. Nevertheless, at present, he stands as the most prepared for the NBA among the quartet of guards. He possesses the capacity for a postseason surge that could significantly enhance his visibility, a feat he will need to achieve for Arkansas to secure multiple victories in the NCAA tournament. While he cannot dictate how teams evaluate his physical future, this presents a chance to further solidify his record of achievements.
Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
Latest rank: 9
Age: 19.9
Brown delivered his finest performances in February, subsequent to returning from an eight-game layoff caused by a back ailment, aiding Louisville in maintaining its position on the periphery of NCAA tournament qualification. His explosive 45-point performance during a dominant victory over NC State was a standout moment in a period that underscored his high-level offensive prowess to NBA franchises. Brown’s capacity to convert challenging perimeter shots at 6-foot-5 offers him a transferable method for assailing defenses in professional basketball. Nonetheless, he has demonstrated inconsistency for much of the season, partly attributable to the demanding nature of his shot selection. While scouts consider him an above-average shooter, he has only connected on 34% of his three-point attempts. His presence has once again become questionable after he was sidelined for Tuesday’s home triumph against Syracuse due to recurring back problems.
One could contend that Brown’s dynamic proficiency in shooting on the move provides him with the greatest offensive potential among guards, excluding Peterson, endowed with the capacity to elevate in confined areas and generate unobstructed shooting opportunities off the dribble from long range. Brown also exhibits advanced passing skills, though this has not consistently materialized in his assist totals. Acquiring greater physical robustness and demonstrating more continuous defensive involvement will be essential, but the promising attributes that scouts enthusiastically noted prior to the season are unmistakably apparent.
The big question: Which version of Brown will we see in March?
Brown’s prolonged absence curtailed his chances to enhance his draft stock, as other first-year players excelled during that period. Should he sustain his performance level under the intensified scrutiny of the postseason and persistently reconfirm his abilities to teams, a gradual ascent on the draft board remains entirely plausible. Louisville has faced difficulties defeating stronger opponents, both when Brown has been present and absent, yet the team possesses sufficient talent to accumulate victories in the ACC and NCAA tournaments if circumstances align favorably.
Brown performs considerably better when he exhibits patience and prioritizes driving into the lane initially, thereby creating scoring chances for his teammates. When he resorts to attempting challenging shots and forcing offensive actions, outcomes have not consistently been favorable. His innate talent is not questioned, but demonstrating his capability to make astute pass-or-shoot judgments under duress would aid in alleviating some of the lingering apprehensions among talent evaluators.
Which other freshmen could go in the lottery?
Current opinion within the NBA generally holds that the aforementioned nine athletes will ultimately be selected in the lottery. Beyond that, the subsequent stages of the draft carry less assurance, though there is ample opportunity for other players to present their qualifications during the upcoming month. The 2017 draft class featured an unprecedented number of first-year players chosen in the initial round, with eleven lottery selections and a total of sixteen draftees in the first round.
Steinbach (Washington), Brayden Burries (Arizona), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston), and Koa Peat (Arizona) are all regarded as first-round freshmen who might unexpectedly enter the lottery. Additionally, an argument exists for several of these individuals to remain in college and potentially enhance their draft stock in a less talent-rich 2027 draft; however, all would likely be chosen in the first round if they declared for the current year’s draft.
Within that particular cohort, Burries has recently garnered the most discernible traction, establishing himself as a primary offensive threat for an Arizona squad laden with potential, a team with the capacity to secure a national championship. Despite being older for a first-year player, he demonstrates versatility in scoring both with and without possession and has proven to be an effective defender, endowing him with a comprehensive skill set suitable for the NBA. Burries has completely reversed his initial slow start to the season and could find himself selected in the latter portion of the lottery if his current trajectory continues.
