-
Seth Walder
Various Authors
The period of NFL free agency presents numerous choices. It’s insufficient simply to declare that Defensive Tackle X surpasses Defensive Tackle Y. National Football League organizations must precisely gauge the compensation they are prepared to offer each athlete. Indeed, they seek skilled individuals and players who can address team requirements. Yet, they are also pursuing advantageous agreements.
As the commencement of the new league year approaches next week, we are identifying players who are currently viewed as underestimated and overvalued as free agency begins.
It is reasonable to question how one might discern if an individual player is underestimated or overvalued. Given that free agency has not yet commenced, the precise compensation players will receive remains unknown. However, we possess a general understanding. Thus, my assessment relies heavily on the prevalent media perception as we approach the free agency period.
Therefore, let us delve into the 2026 free agency cohort and uncover some free agents whose worth exceeds (what we anticipate) they will command… and vice versa.
Further free agency discussions:
Tracking movements | Assessments | Top 100
Go to a particular section:
Underestimated | Overestimated
Underestimated
I comprehend your initial thought. He holds the highest ranking among quarterbacks in this class, so how could Willis be considered underrated? Because I regard him as the single most critical free agent in this entire group.
My initial inclination was to be skeptical of Willis for several considerations:
-
The extremely limited playtime (just three starts over two seasons with Green Bay).
-
The fact that his achievements occurred under the guidance of a top-tier play-caller, Matt LaFleur.
-
His difficulty in securing playing time in Tennessee during his initial two seasons and his subpar performance when he did play.
-
Even with his positive showing in Green Bay, his passing volume was not extensive.
However, after re-watching his performance against the Ravens in Week 17, my perspective underwent a drastic shift. In that particular contest, Willis demonstrated his capability to throw with foresight (a touchdown pass to Christian Watson deep down the middle), the versatility to alter arm angles (a throw to Romeo Doubs across the field), elite quickness (a 22-yard rushing touchdown), the attributes for throwing while on the move (a pass to Jayden Reed downfield), and agility within the pocket (eluding a sack and completing a 31-yard pass to Watson).
Furthermore, his statistics in that brief timeframe were astounding. Since joining Green Bay in 2024, Willis has registered an 86.3 QBR, averaged 9.2 yards per dropback, and boasts a plus-7% completion percentage above expectation (according to NFL Next Gen Stats). These figures would all rank first among QBR-qualified quarterbacks over the past two seasons, had he been able to sustain that impressive pace over a larger sample size.
Discovering a franchise quarterback through free agency is highly improbable. I am not asserting that Willis is destined for such a role, and I am apprehensive about forming an opinion based on such a limited number of plays. Nevertheless, if a franchise quarterback were to emerge from free agency, they would strongly resemble Willis—a player chosen in the early rounds who, after some developmental period, exhibited brilliance in a small sample. For those teams in need of a quarterback, Willis offers a genuine possibility.
Securing Gainwell will lack the fanfare of signing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne Jr., or Breece Hall. Moreover, Gainwell might not serve as a primary, every-down back. Nevertheless, he could readily become a team’s top running back, and his contract would likely be less expensive than those of more prominent names.
Gainwell is coming off a commendable season with the Steelers, where he achieved 4.7 yards per carry and 63 rush yards above expectation, as per NFL Next Gen Stats. He recorded 10.6 yards per carry on plays where he went untouched for at least 3 yards—placing him sixth among all running backs with a minimum of 100 carries.
However, Gainwell particularly shines on passing downs. He accumulated 73 receptions for 486 yards last season in Pittsburgh, including 82 receiving yards over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This included both a positive catch rate above expectation and positive yards after catch over expectation. The Steelers deployed Gainwell on 77% of their third-and-long situations. Therefore, he can certainly be a valuable contributor.
Due to the injury challenges faced by the Chargers’ offensive tackles, Salyer participated in 343 snaps across both tackle positions throughout the 2025 season. The outcomes? Quite satisfactory!
He finished in the 46th percentile for pass block win rate and the 40th percentile for run block win rate (inclusive of the postseason). While not extraordinary, this performance is adequate for someone likely to command a more affordable contract than Giants free agent Jermaine Eluemunor or a player such as Tytus Howard, who was recently traded from the Texans to the Browns and awarded a substantial deal earlier this week.
I anticipate Robinson will receive a respectable offer in free agency, though perhaps not as substantial as he truly warrants, primarily due to the perception—established during the first three years of his career—that he is merely a receiver suited for short-area slot roles.
Robinson’s responsibilities shifted last season, and his output followed suit. He lined up in the slot 52% of the time in 2025 (a decrease from 72% the previous year). His average depth three seconds into a route measured 8.3 yards (an increase from 7.2). And his air yards per target stood at 8.8 (a massive jump from 4.9 the year prior). All these changes coincided with a notable improvement in performance, as his yards per route run climbed from 1.3 to 2.1.
Robinson commanded an impressive 28% target rate last season. A factor in this was the diminished competition for targets after Malik Nabers suffered an ACL tear in Week 4. However, such a significant target share would not occur unless Robinson was performing effectively, a point further underscored by his 65 open score in ESPN’s receiver metrics.
Onyemata is 33 years old, but his performance data indicates that he could be an excellent short-term answer at defensive tackle next season, particularly in a free agent class that is not rich with talent at the position. Last season, Onyemata ranked in the 92nd percentile for run stop win rate at defensive tackle and the 68th percentile for pass rush win rate, despite only recording one sack. The sole downside? He was in the 18th percentile for pressure rate.
Certainly, Onyemata isn’t quite on par with John Franklin-Myers—the premier defensive tackle in this class—but his contract will likely involve significantly less cost.
Overestimated
I surmise Paye will attract a substantial contract, being a former first-round selection who has accumulated 30.5 sacks over five seasons. Nevertheless, I would advise caution.
Among eligible edge rushers, Paye finished last in pass rush win rate for his position, at a mere 4.5%. His pressure rate among those same players fell into the 12th percentile. These figures are damning for consistent, down-to-down performance. He also placed in the bottom quartile for both metrics in 2024. His pass rush win rate at edge was almost average in 2023, but I contend his recent output is too poor to justify a significant financial investment.
Etienne demonstrated improvement in what could have been his final season with Jacksonville, delivering 1,103 rushing yards at 4.3 yards per carry across 17 games and concluding with 44 rush yards above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. While it’s positive that this latter figure was in the black, Etienne was in the negative for this category in the two preceding seasons—with minus-77 RYOE in 2023 and minus-43 in 2024 (though, to be fair, he posted a significant plus-231 in 2022).
Awarding a high-value contract to a running back who has not consistently exceeded what is blocked for him is ill-advised, unless that back provides substantial contributions in another facet of the game. However, Etienne does not meet this criterion.
While he did achieve six receiving touchdowns last season, his 36 receptions for 292 yards were not exceptional. And crucially, the Jaguars utilized Etienne on third-and-7-plus plays only 6% of the time, which reveals their assessment of his capabilities on passing downs.
One year ago, I was receptive to the argument that perhaps Rodgers required another year removed from his 2023 Achilles injury to revert to being a highly productive quarterback.
However, following a QBR of 44.4 last season—which positioned him 23rd out of 28 eligible players—I am now prepared to state that the opportunity for a resurgence has passed. Rodgers is 42 years old and is hoping that 2026 will mark the first season he performs at a high level since 2021. Certainly, there are occasional moments of brilliance, instances where he can still unleash a powerful throw and engineer a play with his arm. But predominantly, Rodgers releases the ball with extreme swiftness (2.59 seconds, the fastest in the NFL) to facilitate short throws (76% of his passes were under 10 air yards, the most in the league).
This tactic helps him remain unpressured (his 10.8% QB hit rate significantly outperforms the 14.4% league average) and leads to very few turnovers. Nevertheless, this is insufficient to compensate for 6.7 yards per attempt for a quarterback who lacks mobility.
0:54
Harry Douglas: The Steelers should not wait for Rodgers
The “Get Up” panel debates whether the Steelers ought to postpone their plans for Aaron Rodgers’ return choice.
I anticipate Taylor will be well-compensated after a genuinely strong season, particularly as nickel cornerbacks are increasingly valued. However, his player profile raises concerns for me. Cornerbacks are known for their year-to-year inconsistency, so I’m always somewhat hesitant to invest heavily after a single outstanding season.
This is especially pertinent in Taylor’s situation. In 2023, Taylor yielded 1.6 yards per coverage snap primarily playing slot corner, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, which is considerably worse than the 1.1 average. In 2024, operating primarily on the outside, Taylor once again allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap. Taylor experienced his breakthrough last season upon returning to the nickel position, achieving 1.0 yards per coverage snap and minus-1.4 EPA allowed, following positive figures (indicating poorer performance) in the two previous seasons.
Which performance level is more likely to be an anomaly? I believe there’s a strong probability it is the 2025 season.
Reader is a nose tackle whose statistics for stopping the run have not been impressive recently. The run stop win rate metric does not favor his performance last season, with a score in the sixth percentile among interior defenders.
I will be the first to acknowledge that our run-stopping measurement can contain a fair degree of variability, but defensive tackles typically exhibit more consistent numbers than other positions. And Reader’s difficulties are corroborated by more fundamental statistics as well.
Reader’s tackle rate against rushing plays was only in the ninth percentile. Even if we solely compare his performance at nose tackle to that of others in the same role, that figure still only reaches the 23rd percentile. He was below average in NFL Next Gen Stats’ run stop rate and stuff rate, when measured against other defensive tackles, too.
