Arizona, Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa secured their spots on Thursday, finalizing the initial half of the Elite Eight lineup. Which teams are poised to advance to the regional championship games in the 2026 men’s NCAA basketball tournament?
Basketball journalists Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf from ESPN provide their predictions for all Sweet 16 matchups scheduled for Friday, alongside an analysis of what each squad needs to do to progress.
All times are listed in Eastern Standard Time.
7:10 p.m. on CBS
Borzello projects: Duke, 73-71
Medcalf foresees: Duke, 77-70
St. John’s path to the Elite Eight: Rick Pitino’s strategy for facing Duke will undeniably prioritize containing Cameron Boozer. While St. John’s boasts a top-tier collegiate basketball defense, the Red Storm lack the stature and athletic prowess that have sometimes posed difficulties for Boozer. A significant portion of this defensive burden will rest on the individual talents of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with Mitchell likely assigned to guard Isaiah Evans in half-court scenarios.
From an offensive standpoint, the Red Storm must maintain their enhanced performance from beyond the arc. Prior to the NCAA tournament, they hadn’t achieved ten or more successful 3-pointers in a single contest since January 10th. However, they have now accomplished this feat in both of their tournament appearances, sinking 11 against Kansas.
Duke’s path to the Elite Eight: Duke possesses two distinct strengths over nearly every opponent: Cameron Boozer and their defensive prowess. When the Blue Devils intensified their defense against TCU in the second round and channeled their offensive plays through Boozer, they asserted control over the Horned Frogs, fundamentally shifting the game’s momentum. Boozer consistently stands out as the most impactful performer in every match he plays, though legendary coach Pitino and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will undoubtedly aim to mitigate his influence.
The Blue Devils’ defense, recognized as the premier unit in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, exhibits minimal vulnerabilities. However, the Red Storm’s composition isn’t ideally suited to pose persistent challenges for Duke. While their shooting has seen recent improvement, they are not a reliably strong 3-point shooting squad and depend significantly on securing offensive boards and converting free throws. Duke excels remarkably at restricting rivals in both these facets of play. — Borzello
7:35 p.m. on TBS/truTV
Borzello projects: Michigan, 92-83
Medcalf foresees: Michigan, 90-80
Alabama’s path to the Elite Eight: It’s widely known that Alabama must connect on a high volume of 3-point shots to remain competitive against Michigan. The Crimson Tide are national leaders in average 3-pointers converted, total 3-point attempts, and their rate of 3-point attempts. They successfully hit 19 threes during their second-round victory over Texas Tech. This performance must be sustained against Michigan, given the significant challenge of consistently scoring close to the basket against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. On defense, the task will be formidable. Alabama has, at times, allowed strong opponents to achieve high scores and holds a mid-tier ranking in defensive efficiency within the SEC.
This contest is expected to be high-scoring and fast-paced. Alabama is unlikely to shy away from an up-tempo match against Michigan, and a scoring duel could benefit the Tide.
0:51
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan game preview
Check out some stats on Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup with Alabama in the NCAA men’s tournament.
Michigan’s path to the Elite Eight: When the Wolverines capitalize on their core competencies—their formidable frontcourt, sheer size, and command of the paint on both offense and defense—few national teams can contend with them for the entire 40 minutes. Mara serves as a defensive anchor near the basket and is developing into a more dependable offensive choice, while Yaxel Lendeborg has demonstrated his capacity to control offensive plays. Alabama lacks the frontcourt skill or talent to rival Michigan and offers minimal shot-blocking, registering among the lowest in the SEC for block percentage.
Another crucial factor for Michigan will be the ability of Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett to limit the impact of Alabama’s standout guard, Labaron Philon Jr., who recorded 29 points in the opening round and 12 assists in the subsequent game. He possesses the capability to lead the Crimson Tide’s efforts. — Borzello
9:45 p.m. on CBS
Borzello projects: UConn, 68-64
Medcalf foresees: UConn, 70-65
Michigan State’s path to the Elite Eight: While player-versus-player matchups often capture the most attention during the NCAA tournament, the strategic battles between coaches hold comparable, if not greater, significance. Over a career commencing in 1995, Tom Izzo cultivated a remarkable talent for identifying and disrupting the key players of rival teams. This expertise represents the Spartans’ pathway to another Elite Eight appearance.
Izzo’s main objective when facing UConn is to curtail Tarris Reed Jr.’s effectiveness. The Huskies transform into a different squad when he establishes a commanding presence in the paint. Should Reed consistently secure offensive rebounds and grant them numerous second-chance scoring opportunities, Michigan State will face considerable difficulty. Fortunately for the Spartans, they are converting 35.9% of their 3-point tries and effectively capitalizing on second-chance points, holding the 10th national rank in offensive rebounding percentage. Their success hinges on making more 3-pointers, forcing UConn’s defense to spread out, and opening up driving lanes for Jeremy Fears Jr. and his teammates. They must compel UConn to defend beyond the arc; otherwise, if the Huskies are permitted to clog the lane, contest shots near the rim and secure rebounds, Michigan State risks defeat.
0:38
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn game preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Michigan St. and Uconn in the NCAA men’s tournament.
UConn’s path to the Elite Eight: To triumph over Izzo’s team, UConn must deliver the elite defensive performance that limited UCLA to merely 39% shooting inside the arc during the second round. The Huskies’ victory against the Bruins reinforced their capability to be a formidable defensive unit when focused. During the Big Ten tournament, UCLA had achieved 132 points per 100 possessions in a win against Michigan State. However, in the round of 32, the Bruins—playing without their leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (due to a knee injury)—managed only 57 points, marking their second-lowest season total. UCLA’s standout, Donovan Dent, dished out nine assists but also shot 2-for-9 with two turnovers. UConn must apply this same level of defensive pressure to Fears. When he operates freely, Michigan State’s offensive production escalates. The Huskies must prevent this scenario.
Regarding offense, Braylon Mullins might prove to be a crucial swing player. Reed achieved a double-double against UCLA but didn’t replicate the exceptional statistics from his first-round performance against Furman (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban notched a personal best of 27 points versus the Bruins, while Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. collectively contributed only two points. Should Reed and Karaban establish a harmonious interior-exterior offense, Michigan State will be challenged to counteract it, potentially allowing Mullins—who has averaged 14.5 points through two NCAA tournament contests—greater liberty and chances to execute plays, either by driving or utilizing off-ball screens.
The Huskies possess numerous scoring avenues, and provided a majority of these prove efficient, they are well-positioned to return to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m. on TBS/truTV
Borzello projects: Iowa State, 67-65
Medcalf foresees: Iowa State, 74-68
Tennessee’s path to the Elite Eight: To defeat Iowa State, Tennessee must employ the same rigorous defense that thwarted Virginia in the closing moments of Sunday’s second-round match. This defensive effort starts with Felix Okpara, who recorded four blocks against the Cavaliers and influenced numerous other shot attempts, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara swatted during Virginia’s rally. According to Synergy Sports data, opposing players had converted only 30% of their shots near the basket against Okpara before Sunday’s game. He will be crucial in guarding the rim against Iowa State, a team that enjoyed a considerable lead in paint scoring against Kentucky (34-20) – though his efforts will not be solitary.
Tennessee possesses the roster depth to manage every individual defensive assignment. The Vols are capable of defending each position on the court. To secure a victory, they will need to apply defensive pressure on Tamin Lipsey, precision shooter Milan Momcilovic, and Joshua Jefferson, assuming his participation. This collective defensive intensity, combined with exceptional showings from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, would form the blueprint for Tennessee to reach the Elite Eight.
Iowa State’s path to the Elite Eight: Regardless of Jefferson’s availability, Iowa State will employ a consistent strategy against Tennessee: circulate the ball to secure optimal offensive opportunities, generate turnovers through defensive intensity, and convert on fast breaks. Even without Jefferson, whose ankle injury makes him a game-time decision, the Cyclones compelled 20 turnovers in their second-round triumph over Kentucky. Orchestrated by Lipsey—who concluded the game against Kentucky with 26 points, 10 assists, and merely three turnovers—the Cyclones achieved 150 points per 100 possessions and converted 63% of their attempts after the intermission. Their record stands at 18-2 when Lipsey maintains an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3-to-1 or superior. Gillespie and Ament collectively committed five turnovers during Tennessee’s second-round victory against Virginia. Iowa State possesses the capability to compel this pair into similar errors that Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (who combined for eight turnovers) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson is sidelined again. This approach represents the Cyclones’ route to progression. — Medcalf
