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The National Hockey League post-season commences this Saturday afternoon as the Ottawa Senators visit the Carolina Hurricanes. Additionally, the Edmonton Oilers and the Montreal Canadiens are vying to become the first Canadian franchise to claim the Stanley Cup since the Canadiens achieved it in 1993.
Below is a brief overview of the three initial playoff rounds featuring Canadian teams, alongside insights into each of the five matchups composed entirely of U.S. clubs.
Ottawa vs. Carolina (commences Saturday at 3 p.m. ET)
As the second wild-card entry from the Eastern Conference, the Senators are distinctly considered underdogs against the top-seeded Hurricanes. Carolina dominated the Metropolitan Division and secured the league’s second-best regular-season record, trailing only Colorado.
However, Ottawa has exhibited exceptional form since the beginning of March, posting a 15-5-3 record, while Carolina’s was 15-7-1. Furthermore, odds makers suggest this contest might be tighter than appearances indicate, with current series probabilities placing the Hurricanes’ victory chance at approximately 60 percent. In contrast, Western Conference top seed Colorado’s implied odds for winning their inaugural round are about 80 percent.
To overcome the high-scoring Carolina squad, the Senators will require their inconsistent goaltender, Linus Ullmark, to perform at his peak. The 2023 Vezina Trophy recipient struggled during the season’s initial three months before taking a 16-game hiatus for mental health reasons, leading Ottawa to the bottom of the Eastern standings by mid-January. Nevertheless, since his return late that month, Ullmark has compiled a 14-4-3 record with an impressive 2.30 goals-against average, instrumental in his team’s 10-point rally to clinch a playoff spot.
Montreal vs. Tampa Bay (commences Sunday at 5:45 p.m ET)
Both the Canadiens and the Lightning concluded their seasons with identical point totals (106) within the same division (the Atlantic). Despite this parity, Tampa Bay enters as a substantial 70 percent betting favorite to emerge victorious in their series. What accounts for this disparity?
The explanation lies in the Bolts’ six additional regulation-time victories compared to the Habs, which secured them second place in the division and home-ice advantage for a potential decisive Game 7 against third-place Montreal. The Lightning also possess a superior recent post-season pedigree, having captured consecutive Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 and reaching a third consecutive final in 2022 with largely the same core roster.
Their lineup also features an abundance of accomplished star forwards, including Nikita Kucherov (second in the league with 130 points), Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is also predicted to win his second Vezina Trophy.
Yet, the veteran Tampa squad has been eliminated in the first round in each of the past three seasons. Moreover, one should not dismiss the ascending Canadiens, who improved by 15 points last year to secure an unexpected wild-card berth (though they also exited in the first round) and added another 15 points this season to remain competitive in the formidable Atlantic race until the very end.
Twenty-six-year-old captain Nick Suzuki became the first Montreal player in four decades to achieve the 100-point milestone. Similarly, 25-year-old sharpshooter Cole Caufield is the first Hab in 36 years to net 50 goals, finishing just two behind Rocket Richard Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon with 51. Twenty-two-year-old defenseman Lane Hutson amassed 78 points, including 66 assists, tying Larry Robinson’s franchise record for a Canadiens blue-liner.
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Edmonton vs. Anaheim (commences Monday at 10 p.m. ET)
The Oilers, who finished one point ahead of the Ducks for the second position in the less competitive Pacific Division, are aiming for their third consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup final, following successive defeats to Florida.Encouragingly, the Panthers, who bested Edmonton in six games last year, failed to qualify for the playoffs this season. The Oilers have once again secured a favorable path to the final, as they are not slated to encounter any of the Western Conference’s top three teams—Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota, all members of the formidable Central Division—until the conference final. Additionally, star forward Leon Draisaitl, sidelined for the past month due to a lower-body injury, is anticipated to return at some point in the first round, possibly as early as Game 1.
Draisaitl’s comeback is vital for the Oilers’ aspirations of winning their inaugural Stanley Cup during the Connor McDavid era, now in its eleventh year. The 29-year-old secured his sixth scoring title last night, placing him alongside Mario Lemieux and Gordie Howe for the second-most Art Ross Trophies ever, with only Wayne Gretzky’s ten exceeding him. However, McDavid continues his quest for a championship, while Lemieux claimed two, and Gretzky and Howe each won four. None of them lifted the Cup beyond the age of 27, suggesting time is a pressing factor for McDavid.
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The other matchups
Buffalo vs. Boston (commences Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET): Buffalo is renowned for two things: its chicken wings and its impassioned, table-breaking Bills supporters. Nevertheless, it’s also a vibrant hockey city, and the venue will be buzzing for the Sabres’ first playoff contest in 15 years. Buffalo held the worst record in the East on December 15 before achieving an NHL-best 36-9-5 run for the remainder of the season to clinch the Atlantic Division. The wild-card Bruins are making their return after missing the post-season last year for the first time in eight seasons.
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia (commences Saturday at 8 p.m. ET): After failing to qualify for the playoffs for three consecutive years, the aging Penguins surprisingly secured second place in the Metropolitan Division, one position ahead of the Flyers. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are nearly a decade removed from their last of three shared Cup triumphs, but they possess a strong opportunity to advance against their Metro rival Philly, whose league-leading 10 shootout victories helped them sneak into the playoffs.
Colorado vs. Los Angeles (commences Sunday at 3 p.m. ET): The high-octane Avalanche convincingly won the Presidents’ Trophy, concluding the season with eight more points and six more regulation victories than any other team in the NHL. They also netted the most goals, conceded the fewest, and their plus-99 goal differential outpaced the rest of the league by a remarkable 40.
MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and their teammates are not expected to face significant challenges from a Kings team that ranked 30th in the league for regulation wins despite competing in the lenient Pacific Division. The more pertinent question is whether the Avs can become the first Presidents’ Trophy recipient to seize the Cup since Chicago in 2013?
Dallas vs. Minnesota (commences Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET): One must empathize with these two teams. They achieved the third- and seventh-best records across the entire league, respectively. Yet, due to the NHL’s peculiar playoff structure, they are forced to compete against each other in the opening round. And the prize for the victor? A probable second-round encounter with Colorado. The Stars’ Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson each registered 45 goals this season, while the Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy collectively scored 87. Star defenseman Quinn Hughes will make his playoff debut for Minnesota following his December trade from league-worst Vancouver.
Vegas vs. Utah (commences Sunday at 10 p.m. ET): An intriguing tidbit about the wild-card Mammoth, who are participating in the playoffs for the first time since the Arizona Coyotes disbanded and reformed as an expansion franchise in Salt Lake City in 2024: they are the first team since the shootout’s introduction two decades ago to complete a full 82-game season without engaging in one. The Golden Knights can only envy this; they posted a dismal 1-8 record in shootouts. However, these do not occur in the playoffs, and Vegas is on a hot streak since dismissing Bruce Cassidy and appointing the passionate John Tortorella, winning seven of eight games following the coaching change to surge to the Pacific title.
The complete schedule for Round 1 is available here.
