The moment has arrived! Following an extensive series of preliminary competitions, the lineup for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, sponsored by Woodford Reserve, has been finalized. This is now the opportunity for bettors to enjoy themselves, attempting to pick the victor from a roster of the top 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds in North America.
No single clear favorite stands out among the entrants, and the horse favored in the morning odds drew the much-feared innermost position, which opens up the contest considerably. The Kentucky Derby consistently presents the year’s most intricate betting puzzle, and this running proves no different.
1. Renegade (4-1 morning-line odds): To be clear: victory in the Kentucky Derby from the rail position is not beyond reach. However, an impeccable performance is essential. The horse must burst from the gate rapidly and quickly establish an advantageous spot before the majority of the competitors converge as they approach the initial bend. Failing this, he risks being relegated to the back of the group. Renegade undoubtedly possesses the capability to triumph, yet the question remains whether the Arkansas Derby champion will navigate the race favorably. This presents a considerable challenge, epitomizing the essence of wagering.
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
2. Albus (30-1): Delivered a commendable performance, securing victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes, sponsored by Resorts World Casino, following his initial maiden win. His finishing time was somewhat leisurely, and similar to Renegade, he will require an faultless getaway to steer clear of early congestion.
JOCKEY: Manny Franco; TRAINER: Riley Mott
3. Intrepido (50-1): Achieved a Grade 1 win as a two-year-old, but this season he hasn’t yet proven capable of competing at this level across a 1 ¼-mile stretch. He finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, trailing by 10 lengths.
JOCKEY: Hector Berrios; TRAINER: Jeff Mullins
4. Litmus Test (50-1): Despite being under the guidance of Bob Baffert, this contender seems unlikely to prevail in this group. His sole stakes triumph occurred last year in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and he was 12 ½ lengths adrift of Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. Perhaps equipping him with blinkers could provide an advantage.
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
5. Right to Party (30-1): Advanced from seventh to second in the Wood Memorial by overtaking fatigued rivals in the final straight. A similar scenario could unfold in this race, though completing the superfecta appears a more probable outcome than placing in the exacta.
JOCKEY: Christopher Elliott; TRAINER: Ken McPeek
6. Commandment (6-1): Except for a fourth-place finish over six furlongs in his initial race, his record is unblemished. He boasts four consecutive victories, culminating in a win at the Curlin Florida Derby, presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, against what was considered the strongest field in a preparatory event. There is considerable appeal, and the 6-1 odds are quite attractive for a three-year-old whose previous highest odds were 5-2.
JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: Brad Cox
7. Danon Bourbon (20-1): Japan nearly clinched a Kentucky Derby triumph two years prior with the impressive Forever Young, falling short by only two noses. While this current Japanese entry might not reach that same standard, he ought to possess sufficient fitness to manage the course length and warrants serious consideration.
JOCKEY: Atsuya Nishimura; TRAINER: Manabu Ikezoe
8. So Happy (15-1): Demonstrated significant progress by winning the Santa Anita Derby. His sole defeat in four outings occurred when he vied for the initial lead. He appears to be a contender capable of tracking behind the frontrunners and advancing into prime position on the last turn, a strategy often beneficial in the pursuit of the roses. A victory would carry profound emotional weight for trainer Mark Glatt, whose spouse passed away in February.
JOCKEY: Mike Smith; TRAINER: Mark Glatt
9. The Puma (10-1): A highly formidable competitor from the conditioner who guided Mage to victory in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. He placed third behind Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, subsequently triumphing in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby. Rather than pausing for the Kentucky Derby, he was entered again in the Florida Derby and performed valiantly, holding the lead in the stretch before being edged out by a nose by Commandment. He is certainly a significant factor at favorable odds.
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Gustavo Delgado
10. Wonder Dean (30-1): This Japanese-foaled participant might prove to be the strongest among the international challengers. He claimed victory in the UAE Derby, sponsored by Jumeirah, defeating Six Speed, and could pose a serious challenge if he can replicate that performance.
JOCKEY: Ryusei Sakai; TRAINER: Daisuke Takayanagi
11. Incredibolt (20-1): This marks trainer Riley Mott’s second entry in his initial bid for Kentucky Derby prestige. He was a comfortable winner of the Virginia Derby, presented by New Kent County, but will require an improvement in his speed ratings. He was soundly defeated in the Holy Bull Stakes before his win at Colonial Downs.
JOCKEY: Jaime Torres; TRAINER: Riley Mott
12. Chief Wallabee (8-1): This will be only his fourth race start, yet he is expertly handled by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (Riley’s father) and rider Junior Alvarado, who together triumphed in last year’s esteemed event with Sovereignty. He finished third in the Florida Derby, narrowly losing by only a half-length. He acquired valuable experience by navigating through horses in the stretch. With the addition of blinkers, he could be primed for an exceptional showing.
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado; TRAINER: Bill Mott
13. Silent Tactic (20-1): Placed second to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, albeit trailing by four lengths. Given his 20-1 odds and Renegade’s status as the morning-line favorite, if you favor Renegade, it would be wise to incorporate Silent Tactic into your exotic wagers. He has not finished lower than second in any of his six career starts.
JOCKEY: Cristian Torres; TRAINER: Mark Casse
14. Potente (20-1): Undeniably the more promising of Baffert’s two entries. He secured victory in the San Felipe Stakes, presented by DK Horse, and subsequently finished second in the Santa Anita Derby. He is expected to contribute to the initial pace, but a lingering question is his ability to sustain a mile and a quarter.
JOCKEY: Juan Hernandez; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
15. Emerging Market (15-1): Arrives with only two career starts, a feat no Derby victor has accomplished since 1883. This statistic is difficult to overlook, yet he exhibits immense talent, highlighted by his win in the 1 3/16-mile Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby in just his second outing. He possesses the speed necessary to claim this race. The uncertainty lies solely in whether he has adequate experience to manage the intense tumult of a 20-horse competition.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Chad Brown
16. Pavlovian (30-1): Trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Reddam Racing have previously secured two Kentucky Derby victories. They encounter a formidable challenge in this event, though this coltbred has shown positive development by winning the Sunland Park Derby and achieving a second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. He is expected to contend for the early lead but might falter during the stretch run.
JOCKEY: Edwin Maldonado; TRAINER: Doug O’Neill
17. Six Speed (50-1): Possesses considerable pace, evident in his second-place performance at the UAE Derby over 1 3/16 miles. His quality also establishes him as a potential contender. However, a key question remains: is he prepared for this level of rivalry over such a distance?
JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Bhupat Seemar
18. Further Ado (6-1): Should he replicate his dominating 11-length victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, this race would be a certainty. Yet, equines are not automatons, and an immense exertion in a concluding Kentucky Derby preparatory race can sometimes result in a less potent performance on the inaugural Saturday of May. (Does anyone recall Bellamy Road?) He is unquestionably capable of winning, but the modest odds evoke doubt following such a standout personal best.
JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Brad Cox
19. Golden Tempo (30-1): An intriguing longshot who typically delivers his peak performance. He surged to secure third place in the Louisiana Derby, and with a favorable passage, he could certainly make an impact. A win would establish Cherie DeVaux as the first female trainer to ever triumph in the Kentucky Derby.
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Cherie DeVaux
20. Fulleffort (20-1): It would be imprudent to discount the Jeff Ruby Steaks champion, especially after Rich Strike transitioned from Turfway Park’s all-weather Tapeta surface in 2022 and emerged victorious from post 20 at astounding 80.80-1 odds. This horse has exclusively competed on Tapeta and turf, yet is training commendably on Churchill Downs’ dirt course. Could such an unexpected success be repeated? Time will tell.
JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione; TRAINER: Brad Cox
21. Great White (50-1, also-eligible): An alternate entry who was defeated by 22 ¼ lengths in his singular dirt race during the Blue Grass. It is difficult to favor him in this context.
JOCKEY: Alex Archard; TRAINER: John Ennis
22. Ocelli (50-1, also-eligible): Forfeited second place in the Wood Memorial at the very last moment, thereby losing his opportunity to enter the Kentucky Derby. His prior performances in stakes races were underwhelming.
JOCKEY: Joseph Ramos; TRAINER: Whit Beckman
23. Robusta (50-1, also-eligible): An alternate contender who finished 16 lengths behind the winner in the Santa Anita Derby. We choose not to endorse.
JOCKEY: Emisael Jaramillo; TRAINER: Doug O’Neill
24. Corona de Oro (50-1, AE): Requires four withdrawals from the field to compete. He established the early speed before fading to third in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. If he gains entry, he will confront a substantial hurdle from the outermost starting position.
JOCKEY: Brian J. Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Dallas Stewart
THE SELECTION: Chief Wallabee
PROMISING OUTSIDER: Silent Tactic
SUPERFECTA WAGER: 12-1-15-13
