We’ve now passed the 50-game threshold, signifying that close to one-third of the extensive MLB season has been played. Teams have finished 16 out of their 52 scheduled regular-season matchups, and the league standings are beginning to solidify in a manner that can no longer be dismissed as merely early-season variability.
Numerous victories and defeats have already occurred, significantly influencing teams’ prospects of making it to October, depending on the advantage they’ve accumulated or the ground they must recover. Memorial Day traditionally marks a period in the baseball calendar when the standings start to be taken more seriously, so with this milestone fast approaching, let’s examine which teams’ playoff probabilities have changed the most since the season commenced.
For the purpose of this analysis, we will use FanGraphs’ playoff probabilities from March 24 (the day before the Yankees and Giants’ Opening Night game), and compare them to those on the morning of May 22.
This past week saw a lot of divisional contests that impacted these percentages, and another weekend of crucial matchups — Rays at Yankees, Cardinals at Reds, Dodgers at Brewers, among others — is upcoming.
There remains ample time for teams to secure or lose their position in the playoff picture. But for the moment, here are the clubs that have deviated most dramatically from their initial preseason forecasts, for better or for worse:
Detroit Tigers — 20-31 (fifth place in AL Central)
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Preseason probabilities: 45% to secure AL Central, 60% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 12% to secure AL Central, 24% to advance to postseason
A poor run of form for Detroit persisted this week as their rivals, the Guardians, visited Comerica Park and swept all four games, extending their lead in the division to an astonishing 9.5 games over the now last-place Tigers, all before the month of June. The Tigers managed only 13 runs during their seven-game home stretch against Toronto and Cleveland, never scoring more than three in a single contest, which brutally encapsulates the batting difficulties that have plagued them for much of the current campaign. Injuries to Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter have complicated matters, but the severe deficiencies of the lineup make it hard to feel especially positive about Detroit’s potential turnaround, even if their ace Tarik Skubal might return to pitching sooner than anticipated, as suggested by his quick recovery from arthroscopic elbow surgery.
Skubal then emerges as a compelling figure in a completely different context if the Tigers continue to struggle. Initially, Skubal’s injury seemed likely to keep him sidelined until after the trade deadline, but the fact that he is already throwing bullpens suggests that the two-time reigning Cy Young winner could be back well before the August 3rd trading deadline. This is where the Tigers’ postseason chances — diminishing rapidly, but not yet hopeless — become particularly relevant. Should Skubal return and perform strongly while Detroit continues to reside at the bottom of the American League, the Tigers might face the difficult decision of whether it is best for the organization to trade the upcoming free agent Skubal for a substantial package of prospects rather than keeping him for the slim prospect of making a postseason rally and risking losing him to the open market for merely a draft pick. President of baseball operations Scott Harris and the Tigers’ front office will not rely solely on FanGraphs, of course — every team possesses its own internal models that predict their chances of reaching October, which will inform their strategy as the deadline approaches.
There remains ample time for them to find their rhythm and negate this unsettling possibility, but if that internal calculation for their playoff odds falls to a particularly unfavorable number, Harris will need to at least consider what seemed impossible not long ago: trading Skubal in a season many had expected Detroit to be competing.
New York Mets — 22-28 (fourth place in NL East)
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Preseason probabilities: 38% to secure NL East, 80% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 3% to secure NL East, 27% to advance to postseason
The Mets have shown some improvement since their dismal 10-21 beginning, which included a 12-game losing streak. That early slump — combined with Atlanta’s outstanding start — has virtually extinguished New York’s prospects of securing its first division title since 2015, an outcome many fans in Queens had hoped for given the team’s significant offseason roster changes and payroll exceeding $350 million. A route to the postseason through a wild card spot is still open, but the Mets will probably need to regain health for that secondary prize to be achieved, as a series of injuries to their position players have made it exceptionally difficult for their offense to establish any consistency. The Mets are collectively paying $201 million to Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., and these players have appeared in the same starting lineup just six times — all occurring within the first seven games of the season. And this doesn’t even account for their starting catcher Francisco Alvarez, who is sidelined indefinitely due to a torn meniscus, nor the several critical pitchers (Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga) also on the injured list. It is quite a predicament, to put it mildly.
Rookies Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing have provided some much-needed youthful vigor in the absence of those veterans in recent weeks, but this offensive unit remains noticeably understaffed and is not anticipated to return to full strength in the near future. With this in mind, it falls to stars like Soto and Bichette to significantly elevate their performance if the Mets wish to have any chance of overcoming this early deficit. President of baseball operations David Stearns has consistently downplayed concerns regarding manager Carlos Mendoza’s job security, but even accounting for the injuries, many aspects of the Mets’ operations will warrant close examination if this incredibly expensive, revamped roster fails to rally back into the playoff picture by the season’s conclusion.
Cleveland Guardians — 30-22 (first place in AL Central)
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Preseason probabilities: 9% to secure AL Central, 16% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 63% to secure AL Central, 74% to advance to postseason
In contrast to Detroit’s considerable difficulties, the Guardians have experienced an impressive surge to a comfortable lead at the top of the AL Central. Their closest challenger has actually been the surprising Chicago White Sox, who are 3.5 games behind and have exhibited a far more engaging style of play compared to the uninspiring performances of not only the Tigers, but also the Royals, who have likewise disappointed relative to preseason expectations and have seen their playoff odds consequently drop significantly (from 45% to 15%).
Meanwhile, the Guardians have once again appeared to be the dominant force in this division, most notably showcasing an offensive unit that is as deep and formidable as any Cleveland lineup in recent memory, largely due to the arrival of top prospects Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana. The immediate impact of these rookies, coupled with substantial progress from returning players Angel Martínez and Brayan Rocchio, the consistent brilliance of franchise cornerstone José Ramírez, and a capable pitching staff (which was less surprising), has established Cleveland as one of the more impressive overall teams in an American League that hasn’t exactly distinguished itself in the initial stages. Similar to Milwaukee in the National League, projection systems routinely underestimate Cleveland’s effectiveness annually, and this year proves no exception. That said, it is noteworthy how pessimistic FanGraphs was about Cleveland entering the year, and credit is due to the Guardians for already defying those predictions so decisively, positioning themselves exceptionally well to secure what would be their seventh division title in the last eleven seasons.
Tampa Bay Rays — 33-15 (first place in AL East)
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Preseason probabilities: 7% to secure AL East, 30% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 35% to secure AL East, 92% to advance to postseason
Another club from a smaller market with a modest payroll that has thoroughly defied all pre-season forecasts suggesting they might struggle to keep pace in the demanding AL East, the Rays have emerged as one of the season’s significant narratives, boasting the best record in MLB after almost two months of play. Their recent sweep of the Orioles earlier in the week marked their sixth sweep of the season, while only three other teams (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers) have even achieved four undefeated series this year, underscoring the consistent excellence and dominance of Tampa Bay’s squad.
Despite ranking tied for 27th in MLB for home runs with just 41 blasts in 48 games, the Rays are eighth in runs per game (4.83) and seventh in OPS (.727), employing an exciting offensive approach built on agility and contact, complemented by a powerful trio in Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda who provide the slugging when needed. The pitching, however, remains the defining characteristic, as has frequently been the case for successful Rays teams previously. What distinguishes this year is that the starting rotation has taken the lead rather than a hyper-efficient bullpen, with Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers, spearheaded by Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, and the astute free-agent acquisition Nick Martinez, collectively achieving a 3.00 ERA, the top figure in MLB.
Remarkably, the Rays have established the second-largest division lead in MLB, surpassed only by Atlanta’s substantial 9.5-game advantage atop the NL East — a 4.5-game lead over the Yankees. Tampa Bay will have an excellent opportunity to expand that lead further with a three-game series in the Bronx this week.
Atlanta Braves — 35-16 (first place in NL East)
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Preseason probabilities: 36% to secure NL East, 79% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 87% to secure NL East, 98% to advance to postseason
Speaking of the Braves, no team has capitalized on the underperformance of its divisional rivals more effectively than Atlanta, which has performed like one of baseball’s top clubs from the very start of the season. The Braves have only lost one of their 16 series — conceding two out of three games in Seattle earlier this month — and have been accumulating victories with ease, even with several key pitchers missing time due to injury and without Ronald Acuña Jr. contributing anywhere near his typical star-level output. Instead, Matt Olson and second-year catcher Drake Baldwin have spearheaded the offense, with both players building compelling arguments for inclusion in the non-Shohei Ohtani NL MVP discussion, at least until Baldwin recently suffered an oblique strain and landed on the injured list.
Catching now presents a significant concern for Atlanta with Sean Murphy also on the injured list, but the Braves have so many other things going favorably, particularly on the mound with talents like Chris Sale, the emergent Bryce Elder, and an outstanding bullpen. They also possess such a considerable lead at the top of the division, thanks to the Mets’ and Phillies’ dismal Aprils, that the Braves should not have to worry excessively for the remainder of the season, and their playoff probabilities reflect this reality.
There is still progress to be made, but the Braves have already secured a very comfortable early-season advantage. After a rare stumble for the consistently competitive franchise last season, it is unsurprising to witness Atlanta back on track and in contention for the NL pennant.
Seattle Mariners – 24-27 (third place in AL West)
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Preseason probabilities: 60% to secure AL West, 81% to advance to postseason
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May 22 probabilities: 46% to secure AL West, 69% to advance to postseason
By most accounts, Seattle has been among baseball’s most disappointing teams, having commenced the season with high hopes following their significant postseason run and with a roster as talent-laden as any in the American League. However, because the rest of Seattle’s division has failed to build any significant momentum in the interim, the Mariners remain in a reasonable position to once again win the division — an accomplishment they have never achieved in their franchise history.
This does not diminish how frustrating Seattle’s performance has been up to this point, though it is worth noting that, like many underperforming clubs across the league — including their ALCS opponent last October, Toronto — injuries have played a major role. Catcher Cal Raleigh is on the injured list for the first time in his career, key offseason acquisition Brendan Donovan has appeared in only 25 games, and the bullpen was without crucial arms Matt Brash and Gabe Speier for extended periods. Indeed, it’s not just Raleigh’s current absence from the lineup, but also his poor play before his injury; last year’s MVP runner-up was hitting .161/.243/.317 before he was sidelined, representing the most prominent lackluster display in an offense that has struggled for much of the year.
Most of the essential components for another memorable season in the Pacific Northwest are still present for a fan base eager to see its favored team in the World Series for the first time, but the Mariners will need to establish their own consistency rather than relying solely on the unimpressive showings of their AL West adversaries as their only reassurance.
