A pair of teams that have underperformed this season and will probably miss out on the playoffs face off in Wednesday’s early game, with Detroit traveling to Pittsburgh for a 12:35 p.m. ET start in the series-deciding matchup. There is a real possibility this could mark the final outing of the year for the Pirates’ struggling star and reigning NL Cy Young recipient Paul Skenes, especially if he delivers another subpar performance.
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Skenes (9-11, 3.88 ERA) was initially scheduled to take the mound on Sunday versus Boston, but manager Don Kelly decided to delay the 24-year-old righty’s start until Wednesday. Skenes agreed with the move, insisting he remains healthy despite a clear drop in his velocity this year and recording a 3-5 record with a 5.28 ERA over his past 11 starts since June 9. Pittsburgh has posted a 3-8 record during Skenes’ last 11 appearances. The former top draft pick has turned out to be one of the most unprofitable starting pitchers to back this year, resulting in a loss of $983 for anyone wagering on the Pirates to win every time he started.
A turning point apparently occurred around the middle of the season when Skenes adjusted his delivery; Tom Verducci of SI, a highly regarded baseball journalist, published a fascinating analysis on Skenes recently, and I want to acknowledge his work. While I understand basic pitching mechanics, I am by no means an authority on these technical modifications.
On June 9, Skenes modified his stride to move away from his usual crossfire delivery. According to Verducci, this adjustment altered “Skenes’ feet position (more direct to the plate) and hand position (less offset) … and that by not stepping across his body as much, Skenes is releasing the baseball with 8-9″ less offset (from the center line of the plate).”
Tigers vs. Pirates Same-Game Parlay
- Pittsburgh to Win (Moneyline)
- Alternative Under 9.5 Runs
BetRivers Same-Game Parlay odds: +130 (subject to fluctuation)
To put it simply, right-handed batters have been dominating Skenes lately. Prior to June 8, they recorded a meager .193 average and .307 slugging percentage against him. Following his mechanical change, those stats spiked to .301 and .470. Skenes threw only 65 pitches during last week’s defeat in Miami, registering a career-worst average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph. He generated only four swings-and-misses out of 34 attempts, resulting in a 12% whiff rate—the lowest single-game percentage of his major league career. His season average velocity on his fastball is currently 96.8 mph, a decrease from last year’s 98.1 mph and his 98.8 mph mark in 2024 when he took home NL Rookie of the Year honors.
“If I were in the manager’s shoes, I’d likely make the same decision,” Skenes remarked regarding his pushed-back start. “[Kelly] explained the whole plan to me, and it was logical. It definitely won’t hurt when it comes to resting up.”
Clearly, Skenes is a cornerstone of Pittsburgh’s plans going forward—at least until he becomes too costly and the Dodgers inevitably trade for him (sigh). Consequently, if his pitching speed is diminished once more on Wednesday, it would not surprise me if the Bucs shut him down for the remainder of the season, considering they are out of postseason contention.
Over his three career appearances against Detroit, Skenes boasts a 2-0 record alongside a 2.00 ERA, collecting 24 strikeouts across 18.0 innings. The projection model predicts Skenes will last 5.5 innings (a figure I doubt), with 6.6 strikeouts, 4.5 hits, and 1.7 earned runs allowed. I am eager to watch his inaugural big-league matchup against the Tigers’ standout rookie Kevin McGonigle, who is currently the heavy -525 frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old infielder shows all the signs of becoming a future AL MVP.
McGonigle entered the league with high expectations, as did Wednesday’s starting pitcher Jackson Jobe (1-1, 6.23 ERA). However, the 2021 MLB Draft’s third overall selection and former top-rated pitching prospect has yet to fulfill his massive potential. Jobe appeared in only two contests in 2024 and 10 games the previous year because of Tommy John surgery. He returned to action from the injured list just under two weeks ago.
Jobe’s debut start was impressive, touching 100.1 mph on the radar gun and tossing five scoreless innings to secure a victory in San Francisco. Unfortunately, he struggled heavily in his second outing last Friday against the White Sox, giving up six runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings. This will be his first career matchup against Pittsburgh, with the computer model forecasting him at 5.0 innings, 4.6 strikeouts, 4.9 hits surrendered, and 2.6 earned runs.
Afternoon matchups following evening games tend to be lower-scoring affairs as players are often fatigued, and weather conditions should not play a significant role at PNC Park. Skenes has performed respectably in his last two starts and has generally been stronger at home this season, while Jobe remains a wild card. Since both squads have a rest day on Thursday, the relievers can be heavily utilized if necessary. The simulation projects a 4.6-4.1 victory for the Pirates. Find more professional selections in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
