An important detail regarding the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is its highly generous standard for defining “fame.” Generally speaking, nearly every major star secures induction down the road. For instance, Michael Cooper was never selected for an All-Star Game. Maurice Cheeks posted a career average of roughly 11 points per match. Furthermore, the New York Knicks squads that captured two titles in the 1970s feature seven inducted players, even excluding Phil Jackson and Red Holzman, who entered the Hall as head coaches. If the imaginary “Hall of Very Good” frequently referenced in other athletic leagues actually existed, it would simply be the Basketball Hall of Fame itself.
The institution welcomed its newest members on Saturday, headlined by NBA star Amar’e Stoudemire. Consequently, when the CBS Sports basketball department evaluated several players on the Hall of Fame bubble, it should come as no surprise that we followed historical trends and predicted that the majority—even those with surprisingly low odds according to Basketball-Reference probability—will eventually secure their plaques. Are these six experienced players headed for induction or exclusion? Read on for our predictions and explanations.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Current likelihood of entering the Hall of Fame (according to Basketball-Reference): 86.9%
Brad Botkin: In. His previous label as a soft player who cannot win has been completely erased. Towns has consistently ranked among the most skilled and efficient frontcourt players in basketball history; he stands alone as the sole player to maintain lifetime averages of no less than 22 points and 11 rebounds nightly while hitting 39% of his attempts from beyond the arc. He has earned six All-Star nods and three All-NBA spots. He also captured Rookie of the Year honors. Today, he stands as an NBA champion, playing a vital secondary role for the Knicks. With plenty of basketball ahead of him at just 30 years old, he will easily continue to space the court for another five seasons. This decision is a no-brainer. He is getting in.
John Gonzalez: In. Had this debate taken place a couple of years back—or perhaps just a few months ago, when rumors circulated that the Knicks were offering him in trade packages during their mid-season slump following the NBA Cup—the reaction would likely have been a simple shrug. Sure, why not. Now, the response is far more definitive. The self-proclaimed greatest shooting big man of all time has never had trouble accumulating impressive statistics, but recently those figures have directly contributed to team success. He served as a crucial piece in securing the Knicks’ first championship banner in over half a century. He has elevated his already formidable skill set, and his career trajectory leaves ample opportunity to compile an even greater resume.
Sam Quinn: In. The most direct parallel is Amar’e Stoudemire, who was just inducted. Towns matches him in All-Star nods and trails by merely two All-NBA honors, yet he is only entering his age-31 campaign. This gives him plenty of runway to bolster his statistical achievements, and he possesses the ultimate trump card with his 2026 championship ring. While he might not make it on the first ballot, Towns is a lock to get inducted eventually.
Devin Booker
Current Hall of Fame probability: 17.3%
Brad Botkin: In. Booker strongly reminds me of Jaylen Brown, only without the championship ring, meaning his profile sounds like a future Hall of Famer even if his actual accolades aren’t overwhelmingly spectacular. He has two All-NBA selections, a single top-four finish in MVP voting, and five All-Star nods. Outside of the seasons spent alongside Chris Paul, the bulk of his career has played out on sub-.500 teams. Ultimately, though, his high-octane scoring sets him apart. He is among only 30 players ever to maintain a career average of 24 points or more, and at only 29 years old, he has a legitimate opportunity to approach the 30,000 career points milestone—a club currently occupied by only nine individuals. When you combine those scoring achievements with his two Olympic gold medals, the credentials become too massive to ignore.
John Gonzalez: In. Of all the names on this list, this decision was the most challenging. While he is an explosive scorer, his shooting efficiency took a major hit last year. He will turn 30 this coming October. Though he still has plenty of productive basketball ahead, the clock is ticking on his bid to prove he belongs in Springfield. His five All-Star games and pair of All-NBA honors are respectable, but they aren’t quite enough on their own. In the end, his two Olympic gold medals provide the necessary push to get him over the hump—by the slimmest of margins.
Sam Quinn: In. This is a bubble candidate who is unlikely to receive first-ballot recognition. His statistical output is on a downward trajectory, and he plays for a struggling Suns organization that appears far from championship contention. Consequently, unless a team trades for his massive contract (which seems improbable) or he transitions into a valuable veteran role player for a contender later in his career (a slightly more plausible scenario), his individual legacy is largely established. Nonetheless, he boasts two Olympic gold medals, and we must remember this is the Basketball Hall of Fame, rather than an NBA-exclusive club. Furthermore, he is a five-time All-Star, and historically, every eligible guard with at least five All-Star appearances has successfully crossed the threshold. If those credentials sufficed for Tim Hardaway, they will suffice for Devin Booker.
Rudy Gobert
Current Hall of Fame probability: 31.8%
Brad Botkin: In. While there is a baseline standard for fringe candidates, the entry requirements are more modest than commonly believed, and Gobert clears them with ease. He is currently locked in a tie with legendary enforcers Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace—both Hall of Fame members—for the most Defensive Player of the Year awards in league history with four. Additionally, he has achieved nine All-Defensive selections and four All-NBA honors. For over ten years, he has anchored his teams so effectively that he practically represents a top-tier defense on his own. Questioning Gobert’s Hall of Fame credentials simply reveals a bias that values defense far less than offense in the game of basketball.
John Gonzalez: In. Is this seriously a debate? While fans and critics enjoy taking swipes at Gobert for his personality quirks or his basic offensive repertoire, he remains without a doubt one of the premier rim protectors and defensive anchors of his generation. His achievements include four Defensive Player of the Year trophies and nine selections to All-Defensive squads. Combine that with three All-Star games and four All-NBA honors, and the case becomes undeniable. If you look past the off-court noise, his sheer impact on the court more than earns him a spot.
Sam Quinn: In. Throughout league history, only three players have captured the Defensive Player of the Year award four times. Since Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo have both been enshrined, I anticipate Rudy Gobert will join them. While Wallace is the only one of the trio with an NBA championship, Mutombo proved that a ring is not a prerequisite for induction, suggesting Gobert can follow suit—particularly when factoring in his pair of Olympic silver medals. Securing a gold medal in the 2028 Olympics or winning an NBA title would solidify his case. At present, because his All-Star total trails Mutombo’s and his All-NBA honors are fewer than Wallace’s, he sits on the boundary.
Al Horford
Current Hall of Fame probability: 26.5%
Brad Botkin: In. Judging purely by traditional statistics and individual awards, this is the most marginal case yet. However, if you were to survey 100 front-office executives on whether they would prefer prime Rudy Gobert or prime Al Horford on their roster, a vast majority would select Horford. As an incredibly versatile player, Horford has served as the ultimate glue guy on both offense and defense throughout his career. While his single All-NBA appearance and lone All-Defensive selection might appear modest on paper, the basketball community widely recognizes that his true value far exceeds those accolades. Ultimately, he has captured three titles that strengthen his Hall of Fame case: an NBA championship with the Celtics alongside back-to-back collegiate national championships with the Florida Gators. He is set to complete at least two decades in the league as one of its most universally respected figures. He will certainly be inducted.
John Gonzalez: In. Another highly debatable candidacy. His journey began with an All-Rookie selection back in the 2007-08 season, followed by single appearances on the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams, along with five All-Star selections. It represents a highly commendable, if not flashy, career. Winning a title late in his career with the Boston Celtics significantly boosts his chances, complemented by his consecutive NCAA championships with the Florida Gators. His incredible staying power is also a major factor. Now past his 40th birthday, Horford has maintained elite play across college and the NBA for over two decades. There is immense value in maintaining that level of consistency and utility for such an extended period.
Sam Quinn: In. It is worth repeating that this institution is the Basketball Hall of Fame, meaning college and international achievements carry significant weight alongside NBA accomplishments. Horford was a primary driving force on one of only nine programs in history to win consecutive NCAA titles. That is an enormous credential. While that college success alone would not guarantee his place, his professional career is also more robust than many realize. He matches Booker with five All-Star nods, holds an NBA championship, and has won nearly 62% of the professional contests he has played in. Given the backlog of forward candidates compared to guards, Horford might find himself waiting behind stars like Shawn Kemp and Chris Webber, but his induction is ultimately inevitable.
Donovan Mitchell
Current Hall of Fame probability: 58.9%
Brad Botkin: In. Should Mitchell fail to reach the NBA Finals or secure a ring, critics will undoubtedly argue about the difference between compiling empty statistics and contributing to winning basketball. Regardless, his path to induction remains highly likely. He placed fifth in the MVP voting in 2023, followed by sixth- and seventh-place finishes over the subsequent two years. His accolades include three All-NBA selections (one First Team and two Second Teams), and he currently boasts the seventh-best playoff scoring average in league history at 27.8 points per game. He remains in his prime, having recently committed to a maximum contract extension with the Cavaliers. While a sudden, dramatic drop-off in performance could make his candidacy debatable, a few more years of high-level output will securely punch his ticket to Springfield.
John Gonzalez: In. If forced to prioritize, I would comfortably rank Mitchell’s credentials above those of Booker and Horford. Mitchell boasts three All-NBA appearances and has earned seven All-Star selections. As he approaches his 30th birthday this September, he continues to perform as one of the most reliable scorers in the game. He has plenty of time to build on his All-Star count, and reaching double digits would put him among the game’s all-time greats. Even if he falls short of that milestone, his current resume is already sufficient to get him in.
Sam Quinn: In. He boasts the most All-Star appearances of any candidate here, and he stands out as the only one to earn All-NBA honors in both of the last two campaigns. He is currently playing at his absolute peak, and though the Cavaliers’ outlook as a championship contender has cooled, they remain competitive enough to keep him in the playoff spotlight. Although a championship ring feels highly unlikely at the moment, his cumulative individual accomplishments will simply be too impressive to ignore. Fewer than 100 players in league history have secured seven All-Star selections, a group he already belongs to, and he is well on his way to joining the exclusive club of fewer than 50 players with at least ten selections before he retires.
Trae Young
Current Hall of Fame probability: 25.1%
Brad Botkin: Out. Young’s career statistics are on pace to reach historic heights. In terms of lifetime assists per game, only Magic Johnson and John Stockton rank ahead of his mark of 9.78. Furthermore, he is positioned to potentially exceed 25,000 career points, which would secure him a place among the top 25 scorers of all time. Should he capture deep postseason runs in the latter half of his career, his case for the Hall will be exceptionally strong. However, at this juncture, he remains on the outside looking in because his high-volume statistics have not translated into consistent winning basketball. This narrative could shift; Young was spectacular during the 2021 postseason when he guided Atlanta to an unexpected Conference Finals appearance, and his playmaking skills are historically elite. Nonetheless, his actual shooting percentages have never quite matched his reputation as a deadly shooter, and his current situation with the Wizards does not look like a recipe for deep playoff success.
John Gonzalez: Out. At last, we have a candidate who doesn’t make the cut. Young has secured four All-Star selections and managed a solitary All-NBA nod. While those accomplishments are respectable, they don’t scream legendary. To his credit, he is an elite offensive threat and a gifted playmaker. On the flip side, his defensive limitations are glaring, and his standing with the franchise where he spent the bulk of his career was so low that Atlanta refused to offer him his desired extension, opting instead to trade him to the Wizards in a salary dump after failing to find a lucrative package. His 25 percent probability on Basketball-Reference seems quite optimistic.
Sam Quinn: Out. With only four All-Star selections, Young falls short of the five-time benchmark that traditionally serves as the minimum entry point for guards. If that threshold has kept Penny Hardaway out (who is still waiting for his call-up), it is difficult to imagine Young getting in, especially since he lacks Hardaway’s Olympic gold medal and Finals experience. While Young has time to expand his resume, his injury history and the league’s shift away from high-usage, heliocentric playmakers suggest he may have already reached his career zenith. While he is not entirely ruled out, I view him as the long shot of this entire group to earn a spot in the Hall.
