Welcome, everyone, to the fourteenth year of my NFL game forecasts!
Believe me, I’m just as shocked as you are that I’m still doing this. Whenever the day comes that I step away—or get pushed out—my very first purchase will be a San Francisco 49ers helmet to pack for my beach trips.
Wondering why a beach trip requires a 49ers helmet? I’m pretty sure we’re all on the same page there.
Seriously, check out those route-running skills. Should the league ever assemble a roster exclusively from artificial Instagram athletes, Daejon Love is going to be an early first-rounder. Granted, a social media-based fantasy franchise sounds ridiculous, but given the wild things that trend online, I wouldn’t rule anything out.
If San Francisco plays with the same level of dedication that Daejon Love used to pull off his hustle, the Lombardi Trophy is practically theirs already.
So, did I truly select San Francisco to go all the way this season?
That is an excellent query, and you can discover my full forecast right here for the complete 2026 NFL campaign. Checking out that link will reveal my projected standings for all 32 squads, alongside my postseason brackets and ultimate Super Bowl LXI champion. Here is a quick hint: the Browns aren’t my choice.
For everyone heading over to check out those projections, we will pause right here for you.
Okay, now that you’re back, let’s dive straight into the opening week forecasts.
Selections for NFL Week 1
Patriots at Seahawks
Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
For only the second occasion in three-quarters of a century, the league is kicking off its schedule on a Wednesday. While a midweek start might not have been on anyone’s wishlist, I won’t grumble after surviving over 210 days without meaningful football action.
In fact, I’m actually thrilled about it. It deserves some applause, if for no other reason than giving NBC a perfect reason to bring back that classic Hump Day camel.
If I were picking a head coach to handle a Wednesday season opener, I probably wouldn’t choose… actually, let me hold back. That joke is far too simple. Let’s move right along to the prediction.
Our last memory of these franchises facing off was back in February, when Seattle dismantled New England in a 29-13 Super Bowl LX rout. Having suffered that heavy defeat on neutral territory, the Patriots now must travel to Seattle to battle a squad boasting a stellar 10-1 record against AFC opponents under Mike Macdonald’s guidance.
Ever since Macdonald took over, Seattle has consistently dominated the AFC, and this matchup looks to follow that trend. The Patriots may have made strides during the spring and summer, but they haven’t closed a 16-point gap.
New England’s chief vulnerabilities in the opener both center on the battle at the line of scrimmage: their defense lacks an established edge rush, while their offensive front looks ill-equipped to handle Seattle’s defensive pressure.
This points toward another lopsided affair. Although New England upgraded their passing attack significantly by bringing in A.J. Brown, connecting with him becomes nearly impossible if the quarterback is under constant duress. Furthermore, Devon Witherspoon is going to make targets incredibly tough to complete.
Regarding the Patriots’ blocking unit, Will Campbell’s return to health should spark some improvement compared to their Super Bowl performance—though almost anything would be a step up after Drake Maye was brought down six times during that championship defeat.
Before revealing my selection for the season opener, I should point out that I projected Seattle to secure a two-touchdown victory during their Super Bowl LX matchup. I mention this solely to highlight my flawless record on this matchup over the last nine months, which bodes well for my next guess.
Seattle might stand as the most overlooked reigning champion in league history, and they look poised to play with a chip on their shoulder. Expect the Seahawks to make a statement by securing a double-digit victory against a solid Patriots squad.
THE PICK: Seahawks 27-17 over Patriots
Rams vs. 49ers in Australia
Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET (Netflix)
In a historic first, the league is hosting a regular-season matchup Down Under, sparking an incredible clash of logistics and strategy for an opening-week contest. The teams must manage a massive 17-hour time shift from the West Coast alongside a gruelling 16-hour flight.
Combining those factors is a perfect recipe for extreme exhaustion, yet both coaching staffs have designed completely contrasting plans to combat the fatigue:
- San Francisco opted to acclimatize early by setting up camp in the country. Their stay in Melbourne is so extended they might qualify for citizenship by departure. Touching down on Sept. 4, they’ll have enjoyed a full week locally before kickoff. Don’t be shocked if George Kittle ends up adopting a kangaroo.
- Los Angeles went the total opposite route instead of mimicking their rivals. Rather than an extended stay, they scheduled a lightning-fast 36-hour trip, landing on Thursday morning for a game scheduled for Friday morning local time.
It is hard to say which approach will pay off, but having done a rapid 36-hour run to Melbourne myself, I appreciate the quick-turnaround challenge. For the curious, my quick itinerary featured a breakfast stop at Patricia Coffee—an essential visit, since skipping local espresso in Melbourne might get you blacklisted from the city.
Lunch was a visit to Queen Victoria Market, followed by a dinner stop at the Biggie Smalls venue located inside the airport terminal.
John Breech/CBS Sports
I live by a simple personal code: never turn down a meal at an establishment named in honor of Biggie Smalls.
While my brief stay didn’t allow for much sightseeing, I felt no jet lag whatsoever, suggesting the Rams’ strategy might actually hold weight.
Ever since Sean McVay took the reins in 2017, LA has favored rapid, brief overseas excursions with great success. This approach has led to a perfect 3-0 record (both straight up and against the spread) in global games, outscoring opponents by a massive 92-17 margin.
- 2017 London (Friday arrival for Sunday kickoff): Rams 33-0 over Cardinals (Rams -3)
- 2019 London (Friday arrival for Sunday kickoff): Rams 24-10 over Bengals (Rams -12)
- 2025 London (Saturday arrival for Sunday kickoff): Rams 35-7 over Jaguars (Rams -3)
In their last international trip, the Rams took a gamble by landing in London on Saturday. This was a bold move against a Jacksonville franchise that possesses more international game experience (14 appearances) than any other team, yet the Rams still dominated them.
LA has drafted a daring itinerary for this Australian matchup, and doubting them based on travel fatigue means falling into one of history’s classic strategic errors:
1. Avoid land skirmishes in Asia.
2. Avoid testing a Sicilian when survival is at stake.
3. Avoid second-guessing Sean McVay’s international travel schedules.
Shifting focus from flight plans to the actual matchup on the field, let’s look at how things stack up.
While opening week usually features healthy rosters, San Francisco is already dealing with a litany of injuries. Their physical setbacks are so severe that Daejon Love might get a call-up. This hobbled squad faces a powerhouse Rams lineup that boasts elite defenders like Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald, led by the league’s reigning MVP, Matthew Stafford.
Even with Donald officially ruled out (SEPT. 8 UPDATE: He is confirmed out), the presence of Garrett and Stafford should keep LA playing at an elite level, assuming Stafford’s back tolerates the long journey.
I’m heading off to binge-watch the entire Crocodile Dundee trilogy to get in the zone for this matchup.
THE PICK: Rams 24-17 over 49ers
Bills at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Choosing a side in this matchup is tough because I’m a big believer in both rosters this season. If you looked at my yearly guide, you know how optimistic I am about both franchises:
- I’m projecting Buffalo to capture the AFC East
- I’m picking Houston to claim the AFC South
- I have both squads ending with an 11-6 record
Was that whole segment just an excuse to promote my preview once more? Absolutely. Honesty is key for the first week, and we want to start off on the right note (so if you missed the preview, check it out right here).
Let’s make the selection. Despite his incredible career achievements, Josh Allen has never captured a championship or won a game in Houston, and both droughts look likely to persist.
In four road matchups against Houston (postseason included), Allen is 0-4, with Buffalo failing to reach the 20-point mark in any of those games. His road average against them stands at 183 passing yards, with a lone touchdown pass against two picks over that span.
During last year’s 23-19 defeat in Houston, Allen was brought down eight times. If any defensive unit consistently has Buffalo’s passing game solved, it’s this Texans squad.
Allen might endorse sleep aids, but I suspect he needs them primarily to avoid bad dreams about Houston’s front seven.
If Allen is the league’s Man of Steel, Houston is his kryptonite, and that won’t change this weekend. Joe Brady stepping up as head coach might not solve the problem, as his prior campaigns as offensive coordinator in 2024 and 2025 saw Buffalo struggle to unlock DeMeco Ryans’ defensive schemes.
Already possessing an elite defense, Houston brought back Jadeveon Clowney to bolster their unit even further.
If I had full faith in C.J. Stroud, I’d forecast a double-digit margin, but since I don’t, I’ll rely on the Houston defense to keep the Bills’ offense in check.
THE PICK: Texans 20-19 over Bills
Dolphins at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
If you’ve ever suffered a massive loss at a Vegas table, you can relate to Miami’s current situation. Rather than blowing a bankroll on the Strip, however, they’ve functionally written off $180 million.
Miami is carrying an astronomical $181.6 million in dead money for the 2026 season, swallowing up more than 60% of their $301.2 million limit. For those unfamiliar, dead cap represents charges for athletes no longer on the roster, and the team’s top five highest payroll figures belong to former players.
Check out the roster of departed players and their respective hits in Miami for the 2026 campaign:
Losing $18 on a Snoop Dogg slot machine in Vegas doesn’t feel nearly as painful in comparison.
With so much space eaten up by dead money, the front office had only $120 million remaining for active players, forcing them to carry 12 rookies. Head coach Jeff Hafley has already noted that success this season will be measured by factors other than the win-loss record…
Which is precisely the kind of rhetoric you use when you expect a difficult season in the standings.
While this might represent their most winnable game of the year, expect them to fall by at least a touchdown.
THE PICK: Raiders 20-13 over Dolphins
Broncos at Chiefs
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
A Monday kickoff is a blessing here, giving both starting quarterbacks a precious extra day of recovery. Bo Nix is working back from an ankle fracture suffered in January, while Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and LCL sustained in December.
I considered injuring my own joints to compare the recovery processes, but my spouse quickly shut down that experiment.
Looking at historical recoveries, Mahomes is the greater question mark. Nix looked fully functional during exhibition play, whereas Mahomes, despite practice reps, skipped the entire preseason slate.
Mahomes’ timeline is practically historic, aiming for a full game return just nine months post-reconstruction. His injury occurred on December 14, the same date Micah Parsons suffered his own knee injury.
The Green Bay standout has already stated he won’t return before mid-October at the earliest. Similarly, Michael Penix suffered an ACL tear in mid-November and only returned to full practice drills in late August. Mahomes is progressing remarkably fast compared to his peers, especially considering his knee damage included an LCL tear as well.
In short, even if Mahomes plays, he won’t be at peak mobility, and Denver’s defense is a nightmare matchup for a limited quarterback. If Kansas City is also missing left tackle Josh Simmons, protection issues could mount.
With final clearance pending, Justin Fields remains a backup option, but the starting quarterback won’t sway my choice: I’m backing Denver.
THE PICK: Broncos 23-21 over Chiefs
NFL Week 1 Selections: Remaining Matches
Bengals 23-16 over Buccaneers
Lions 30-20 over Saints
Titans 16-13 over Jets
Ravens 27-20 over Colts
Steelers 23-20 over Falcons
Bears 24-21 over Panthers
Jaguars 19-16 over Browns
Packers 22-19 over Vikings
Eagles 27-21 over Commanders
Chargers 31-21 over Cardinals
Cowboys 30-23 over Giants
Previous Performance
Top Prediction: If you enjoyed reading these forecasts and want more analysis throughout the season, you can sign up for our weekly newsletter at CBSSports.com right here. Feel free to share the link with friends! You can also find me on the platform formerly known as Twitter here.
Worst Call: This is where my poorest selections will be displayed starting next week. Self-deprecation is the best defense!
2025 Prediction Record (Including Postseason)
Straight up: 173-111-1
Against the spread: 133-149-3
2024 Prediction Record (Including Postseason)
Straight up: 189-96
Against the spread: 146-133-6
To be honest, I think my peak performance happened two seasons back.
Catch John Breech on Facebook, Twitter, or TikTok. When he is offline, he is likely researching the current market price for vintage 49ers helmets.
