Less than a year ago, the Seattle Mariners stood incredibly close to making their very first appearance in the World Series. On Thursday, their postseason hopes were officially dashed, marking the mathematical end of a downward spiral that represents perhaps the most letdown season of any Major League Baseball club in 2026.
It is difficult to pinpoint where the issues started. When an organization succeeds, people often point out that greatness requires a total collective effort—encompassing athletes, the coaching staff, executives, ownership, and support staff. Conversely, a failure of this scale is unquestionably a shared failure as well.
Throughout the 2026 campaign, catcher Cal Raleigh suffered an unprecedented decline, plummeting from an MVP-caliber player into an extended slump lasting several months that permanently damaged his season numbers. Lacking a central threat in the batting order, Seattle’s offense struggled to generate any rhythm, devolving into one of the lowest-scoring units in baseball. Meanwhile, a starting rotation that had anchored the team’s achievements for the last five years failed to offer its usual stability, and the relief corps performed poorly for the first time in a long while. Exacerbating these pitching struggles was a porous defensive unit that rated near the bottom of the league by almost every measure. Skipper Dan Wilson, already under intense scrutiny for a highly baffling decision in the previous playoffs, failed to rally team morale or display sharp tactical leadership. Even the newly unveiled monument at the stadium honoring legendary figure Ichiro Suzuki suffered from mechanical issues.
It proved to be overwhelming.
During the previous autumn, the Mariners advanced further into the playoffs than at any other point in club history. Seattle entered postseason play as champions of the American League West for the first time since 2001. They defeated the Detroit Tigers during the ALDS, clinching the series with a game-ending hit by Jorge Polanco in the 15th frame of the deciding Game 5. Just seven days later, the local supporters at T-Mobile Park witnessed another legendary highlight when beloved infielder Eugenio Suárez blasted a thrilling, lead-changing grand slam in the fifth game of the ALCS against Toronto, bringing the Mariners within a single victory of the Fall Classic.
However, when the series shifted back to Toronto, the Blue Jays claimed Game 6. Then, in the decisive Game 7, just eight outs shy of securing their debut World Series berth, the Mariners collapsed right at the finish line. Their 3-1 advantage dissolved into a 4-3 deficit after George Springer altered the course of history with a massive home run in the seventh inning. Seattle could not muster a comeback, allowing Toronto to claim the American League crown and forcing the Mariners to continue their long wait.
Losing that final game was a devastating disappointment for the entire franchise. Yet, once the initial pain began to fade, the team’s deep playoff run clearly demonstrated upward trajectory, which the executives eagerly sought to build upon. They secured first baseman Josh Naylor with a five-year agreement valued at $92.5 million, representing the most expensive free-agent signing authorized during Jerry Dipoto’s tenure leading the front office since late 2015. Seattle also strengthened its relief options by trading for power-pitching lefthander José Ferrer. Furthermore, they signed Rob Refsnyder, an outfielder known for his exceptional ability to hit left-handed pitchers. To cap off their winter moves, the Mariners finalized a deal with the Cardinals for Brendan Donovan, whose excellent on-base capabilities and multi-positional defense made him a seamless fit for the roster.
These meaningful additions to an already formidable core placed the Mariners in the unaccustomed role of true title contenders as soon as they reported to spring training in Arizona. Numerical projections and betting markets labeled them the frontrunners to defend their AL West crown, and FanGraphs calculated that Seattle possessed the second-highest probability of winning the World Series, trailing only Los Angeles. Though this level of hype was unusual for the organization, the talent on paper made it feel warranted. Ultimately, it was up to the players to meet those loftier standards and capitalize on their potential.
Instead, the team’s chemistry seemed troubled even before the regular season commenced. During the World Baseball Classic in March, Team Mexico’s Randy Arozarena tried to exchange a pre-at-bat handshake with Team USA’s Raleigh, only to be ignored by his Seattle teammate. Instantly, two of the club’s prominent figures were generating unfavorable press. While Raleigh was not the sole member of the American squad displaying a hostile demeanor during the international tournament, his cold shoulder toward Arozarena drew considerable criticism—a stark contrast to his magical 2025 campaign, which had made him a beloved and highly respected figure among colleagues and supporters alike.
Though Raleigh tried to minimize the incident, reports suggested that Arozarena remained upset. Even so, this drama might have been dismissed as a minor misunderstanding had Seattle performed well on the field. Instead, it cast an odd shadow over the early months of the schedule, a narrative amplified by Arozarena putting together the best season of his career while Raleigh fell into a shocking decline. Naturally, this pair represented only a fraction of a wider team-wide collapse, but the initial incident served as an ominous prelude to the season.
Regardless, the season did not fall apart immediately. Over the initial months, other highly touted franchises shared the blame for failing to meet expectations. Boston and Philadelphia replaced their field managers prior to May. New York’s National League team, despite carrying the sport’s highest payroll, struggled so immensely that they let go of their manager in June. Detroit suffered a dismal 6-22 run in May, ruining their championship aspirations in Tarik Skubal’s final contract year. Even the Blue Jays, who had defeated Seattle in the preceding ALCS, failed to sustain a winning record and will also sit out the postseason. (Historically speaking, the previous occurrence of both league championship representatives missing the playoffs the next year happened in 2008, following the 2007 NLCS showdown between Colorado and Arizona. Furthermore, you would have to go back to 1987 to find the last instance where both ALCS participants concluded the subsequent season with a sub-.500 record.)
Yet as the months progressed, both Boston and Philadelphia managed to reverse their fortunes and clinch playoff berths. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Mets acknowledged their bleak outlooks, trading away key players before the deadline. Conversely, the Mariners simply remained stagnant within a weak American League and an even weaker division, delaying the inevitable realization of their true trajectory.
Cal Raleigh (left) and Randy Arozarena, pictured celebrating a home run, established an odd atmosphere for the 2026 campaign following their handshake snub during the WBC.
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Though Seattle struggled to handle its abundant starting pitchers, shifting awkwardly between utilizing six starters and employing a “piggyback” system, they still strung together eight consecutive victories at the turn of June. Winning in Baltimore on June 9 put them three games ahead in the division. While the remainder of June proved more volatile, by July 5, the Mariners held a 47-44 record, maintaining sole possession of first place. During this period, statistical forecasts gave them an 87.5% probability of reaching the postseason, placing their championship odds behind only those of the Dodgers and Yankees.
Their position was particularly impressive given the minimal production from Raleigh, who was sidelined for four weeks by an oblique strain that marked his first career stint on the injured list. Beyond his absence, Raleigh’s performance at the plate was surprisingly weak both before and after his injury. Just a year prior, he went into the All-Star festivities as the starting catcher for the AL and a major national storyline, boasting 38 homers and a 1.011 OPS. In contrast, he was left off the All-Star roster this July, having hit a mere nine home runs with a disappointing .581 OPS over 65 games before the break.
Remaining in contention while their premier talent struggled could have been seen as a positive sign, suggesting the roster might dominate once Raleigh rediscovered his form. Though the catcher eventually recovered his stroke—ranking in the top ten across baseball in fWAR and wRC+ following August 16—his resurgence occurred far too late to salvage Seattle’s postseason hopes, which had already slipped away.
Furthermore, Raleigh was far from the only hitter who fell short. Julio Rodríguez, the co-star of the franchise, hit new lows in batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage, which took the shine off his latest power and speed achievements. Naylor’s power numbers fell well short of league averages for starting first basemen, and his hyper-aggressive plate approach paired with weak power—only three other eligible batters saw fewer pitches per appearance—frequently killed scoring opportunities. Additionally, highly regarded rookie Colt Emerson struggled in his initial big-league action, recording a weak .246 OBP in 241 plate appearances before being sidelined by a lingering wrist issue that the young infielder eventually confessed had hindered him for some time.
Apart from the All-Star level play of Arozarena and respectable contributions from the overlooked Dominic Canzone and rookie infielder Cole Young, there were precious few bright spots in the batting order. Generating runs proved incredibly difficult, a struggle reflected in basic stats like runs per contest (28th) and OPS (29th), along with more detailed metrics. Seattle sat dead last in doubles with only 199, put on a trajectory to finish with the lowest double count in any full season in team history.
Seattle dropped eight out of ten contests to end July five games under the .500 mark. However, given the weak competition in the American League and the massive expectations surrounding the franchise, ownership chose to acquire talent at the trade deadline, bringing in outfielder Taylor Ward from the Orioles and reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Cubs. Unfortunately, these acquisitions failed to stop the slide. Ward immediately entered a historic slump, posting the lowest batting average in baseball post-deadline, while Dominguez failed to stabilize the struggling relief corps.
Following the trade deadline, the team dropped seven of their next eight games, which included a disheartening home sweep by Tampa Bay that highlighted how far they had slipped from contention. A late-inning rally in Houston on August 14 ended in a walk-off loss to the division-leading Astros. Just four days later, the Mariners suffered a historic 22-0 defeat in Milwaukee, marking the worst shutout loss in club history. The most glaring moment of that debacle occurred when Rodríguez lost track of the outs with his team down by 19, throwing the ball into the outfield seats under the mistaken impression that the long inning was over.
Though that specific mistake by Rodríguez had no bearing on the outcome of an already-lost game, the young outfielder made several other costly errors, including a critical defensive misplay in Boston that squandered a ninth-inning lead and resulted in a painful walk-off defeat. This encapsulated a season of severe defensive regression for Rodríguez, who ranked below average in several categories after starting his career as an elite defender. His struggles contributed to an overall defense that ranked last in Outs Above Average and recorded the worst mark (-56) since MLB began publishing the stat in 2016.
This subpar defense provided no help to a pitching staff that was already facing its own difficulties. While the team’s homegrown starting pitchers produced some excellent outings, the rotation generally lacked consistency, giving up crucial home runs and struggling outside of their pitcher-friendly home field. On the rare occasions when the starters and hitters handed a lead to the late-inning relievers, the bullpen—hampered by poor management and roster limitations—frequently blew the game, leading to several heartbreaking walk-off losses.
These struggles intensified during the latter half of the schedule: the pitching staff’s post-All-Star break ERA of 5.15 ranked among the worst in the league, surpassed only by Oakland, Colorado, and Cincinnati. Over those 61 games, Seattle pitchers surrendered an incredible 101 home runs, which was 13 more than any other team during that stretch.
Looking back, the highly praised winter acquisitions turned out to be complete failures. Naylor’s performance regressed significantly, casting a shadow over the remaining four years and $80 million on his deal. Refsnyder struggled mightily, batting a mere .140 over 114 at-bats before the front office released him in the middle of the season. Donovan performed adequately when healthy, but physical setbacks kept him out of all but 39 contests. While Ferrer was decent, the hard-throwing lefty failed to make the leap expected after his trade from Washington, with his strikeout numbers actually falling.
When combined with a returning core that failed to raise their level of play during a crucial year, these disappointing acquisitions doomed the roster to a subpar finish.
After defeating Toronto in a series early in July, the Mariners went 27-40, registering the fourth-worst record in baseball during that timeframe, ahead of only the Angels, Athletics, and Rockies. Ironically, those struggling clubs provided a final soft spot in Seattle’s schedule as they limped into September while remaining mathematically alive in the division and wild-card hunts. With 17 of their final 22 matchups scheduled against those three bottom-tier opponents, Seattle was handed a final opportunity to rescue their season.
However, given their poor play over the previous two months, it was hardly shocking that they faltered against weaker opponents. They lost five out of seven games to Oakland and fell in two of three games at Anaheim, guaranteeing the franchise’s first losing season in six years. A subsequent series defeat to Colorado over the weekend sealed their fate, and Thursday brought official elimination from playoff contention following Texas’s 79th win of the year.
While they were knocked out of the wild-card race on Sunday, the team stayed mathematically alive in the AL West for four more days due to the struggles of Texas and Houston. If the overall failure of the season wasn’t bad enough, the fact that Seattle couldn’t capitalize on what may be remembered as the weakest division in MLB history serves as the ultimate indictment of their performance.
As autumn arrives, the franchise enters the winter months lacking the satisfaction of a playoff run and facing a multitude of unanswered questions.
How did a season that held so much promise fall apart so completely? Will Raleigh and Rodríguez be able to re-establish themselves as the franchise’s franchise players? Can the pitching staff return to its former dominant state? With reports suggesting Wilson will not return as manager, who will lead the team in 2027? Will there be broader changes to the rest of the coaching staff? What is the future of Dipoto’s front office, which has assembled talented rosters but reached the playoffs only twice in over ten years? And if the current front office remains in place, what roster adjustments can they manage before the anticipated lockout on December 1?
When 2026 began, the future looked incredibly bright for the Seattle Mariners. Now, as the year concludes, few teams in the league face a more daunting list of questions heading into the winter.
