Analyzing target volume is a weekly necessity, but our analysis goes much deeper. On a weekly basis, we dive into the data grids to dissect the performance of targets and receivers—identifying who is surging, who is struggling, and the underlying factors driving these trends.
Let us fire up the databases and discover what the numbers reveal.
Brock Bowers has game-breaking potential
During the offseason, I largely avoided Bowers at his second-round draft position. He was recovering from a season derailed by physical setbacks, and the prospect of passing on a high-upside wideout or running back to draft him felt too risky. Kirk Cousins is clearly in the twilight of his career (to be polite), and rookie signal-caller Fernando Mendoza remains highly unpredictable. When news broke that Bowers underwent meniscus surgery a few weeks ago and sat out the initial pair of matchups, my decision to skip him seemed entirely justified.
However, Bowers has consistently defied standard expectations throughout his football journey. He stands alone as the sole multi-time recipient of the Mackey Award, honoring collegiate football’s top tight end. His initial professional campaign in 2024 was an absolute sensation (112 receptions, 1,194 yards, and 5 touchdowns), and even with a five-game absence the following season, he managed to find the end zone seven times while maintaining a clip of 56.7 receiving yards per contest.
Then came Bowers’ highly anticipated 2026 season opener in Week 3.
While a stat line of 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown is incredibly loud on its own, his underlying utilization pattern is what truly astounds. Bowers was the primary read on a staggering 50% of the Las Vegas aerial designs, a near-impossible figure (for comparison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league over the past half-decade with a 44.6% rate last season). Furthermore, the Raiders minimized his blocking duties, sending him out on routes during 94.6% of Cousins’ passing plays—a massive jump from his route-participation rates of 84% and 80% over the prior two campaigns.
Newly appointed head coach and offensive architect Klint Kubiak has a reputation for maximizing player output. His influence was highly visible during JSN’s breakout year last season. It is also possible that the 38-year-old Cousins possesses more arm talent than I previously credited him for. To bring this full circle, Cousins has a track record of fueling elite tight end performances—evidenced by Kyle Pitts Sr.’s historic Thursday night showing last December (11 grabs for 166 yards and 3 scores) with Cousins running the offense.
Positioning Trey McBride as the premier tight end during draft season was a defensible move—and he may very well retain that crown—while plenty of analysts shared my optimism for a big Loveland campaign. However, I am bracing myself for massive regret as I watch Bowers easily manipulate mismatched linebackers and secondary defenders over the coming months. Las Vegas is exceeding expectations, and this passing attack heavily relies on Bowers to command a massive target share due to the lack of elite weapons on the outside.
Pinpointing the struggles of Kyle Pitts Sr.
Witnessing the Atlanta offense finally find its groove in Week 3 was a welcome sight, especially for a unit that failed to reach the red zone during the opening fortnight. While the jury is still out on quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s long-term ceiling, he has undeniably unlocked Drake London’s potential and provided a significant boost to Bijan Robinson’s outlook.
But what about Kyle Pitts Sr.? The outlook is much bleaker.
Penix has accumulated 13 professional starts across 17 total appearances. His career numbers translate to slightly under a complete season’s worth of work. While the majority of his efficiency metrics hover below standard baselines, he does excel at limiting drive-killing errors like turnovers and sacks relative to the rest of the league.
When dropping back to pass, Penix displays clear tunnel vision for London. Consider his target dispersion across 460 career pass attempts:
— London: 139 targets resulting in an 89-1,341-8 stat line
— Robinson: 65 targets yielding 49 receptions for 499 yards and 2 scores
— Pitts: 62 targets converting into 44 catches for 428 yards and 2 touchdowns
Furthermore, when Pitts actually commands targets from Penix, they rarely generate significant yardage downfield. A look at his career yards per attempt sorted by quarterback illustrates this trend:
— Matt Ryan: 9.4 yards per attempt on 109 targets
— Kirk Cousins: 8.4 yards per attempt on 132 targets
— Taylor Heinicke: 7.6 yards per attempt on 19 targets
— Desmond Ridder: 7.2 yards per attempt on 73 targets
— Michael Penix: 6.9 yards per attempt on 62 targets
It might be tempting to dismiss the connection between Penix and Pitts as a small sample size anomaly, but that defense is losing credibility. Across nine shared contests last season, Pitts registered an underwhelming 36 catches for 357 yards and a single touchdown. He offers minimal target share, a lack of explosive plays, and virtually no red-zone presence. In the previous matchup, Pitts secured only one reception on two targets, even as Atlanta’s offense exploded for 498 yards and 35 points.
Though hailed as a generational “unicorn” athlete since entering the NFL half a decade ago, this situation might simply be an issue of a square peg in a round hole.
How Kalif Raymond is derailing fantasy expectations
When Chicago acquired Raymond ahead of this campaign, fantasy managers barely blinked. Heading into his age-32 year, his career trajectory has been decent but far from spectacular. He has never reached 50 receptions in a single year, nor has he eclipsed 616 receiving yards in a season. Over his nine-year tenure, he has found the end zone only nine times. Primarily utilized as a special teams returner and rotational depth option, his previous stints—even playing under Ben Johnson in Detroit—offered very little fantasy relevance.
Yet, the target distribution in Chicago is far wider than analysts projected, with Raymond serving as the primary disruptor. Over the initial three weeks, he has put up a highly efficient 19-214-1 stat line. Converting 19 of his 21 targets translates to a stellar 90.5% completion rate, while his 10.2 yards per target is equally outstanding.
Although Luther Burden III suited up on Monday night versus Philadelphia to retain the team target lead with 23, Raymond’s 21 opportunities are actively cannibalizing the opportunities of his teammates. Rome Odunze has been limited to a mere 13 targets despite a highly efficient 10.7 yards per target, and Colston Loveland languishes at only nine looks (averaging a meager 3.8 yards per target). Making matters worse for fantasy owners, both Odunze (via a dropped pass) and Loveland (stopped at the goal line) were inches away from scoring in Week 3.
During draft season, expectations were high for Burden to assume an Amon-Ra St. Brown-style role in the Bears’ aerial scheme, yet Raymond is actually sporting a shallower average depth of target (6.0 to Burden’s 7.2). Conversely, Odunze is being used almost exclusively on deep routes, boasting a 17.6-yard average target distance. While fantasy players debate whether Raymond offers enough individual utility to warrant a starting spot in their lineups, his volume is undeniably capping the high-end potential of the other Chicago pass-catchers.
Data points and metrics featured in this analysis were gathered using resources from Fantasy Points and Pro Football Reference.
