The Detroit Lions (6-2) and New England Patriots (5-4) are set to face off in Munich, Germany, for a Week 10 matchup between teams from opposite conferences. Following their Super Bowl run in 2025, the Patriots’ performance this season has varied greatly, at times showcasing their strength and, at others, revealing significant vulnerabilities. While it’s unclear which version of the Patriots will take the field each week, the Lions are preparing for New England’s best effort for this encounter.
“There’s a really solid team here,” said Lions coach Dan Campbell in reference to the Patriots. “The record doesn’t accurately reflect who they are. There are many factors that contribute to this. […] When you look at what this team is capable of overall, including the talent they possess, they’re undeniably good and pose a threat. They’ll correct their issues.”
Former Patriots quarterback turned commentator Tom Brady examined the Patriots’ recent game against the Packers—a decisive 45-27 defeat—and expressed a critical view regarding their performance:
“For half the season they’ve played like they can be dominant, while the other half they’ve shown a tendency to turn the ball over and expose their defense. Right now, their performance is just too erratic. Which team will show up? The one that’s careless with the ball, making questionable decisions and looking vulnerable, or the team that protects the football, forces the opponent to play off-balance, and executes their game plan? Can they perform at a high level? They haven’t quite achieved that because successful teams operate with minimal margin for error.”
Next, let’s delve deeper into the Patriots’ coaching staff, the systems they utilize, and insights gathered from their latest games.
Patriots head coach: Mike Vrabel
Head coaching duration: 8 seasons (Patriots 2025-present, Titans 2018-23)
Defensive coordinator tenure: 1 season (Texans, 2017)
Coaching experience in NFL: 13 seasons (Patriots, Browns, Titans, Texans)
Playing career in NFL: 14 seasons (Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers)
Other coaching roles held: LB coach, DL coach, Consultant (Browns, 2024)
Inspirations: Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel, Bill Cowher
Training under: Crennel (DC), Bill O’Brien (HC)
Play caller: No
Dan Campbell discusses Patriots coach Mike Vrabel:
“I think Vrabel is an excellent coach.”
Offensive coordinator: Josh McDaniels
Experience in NFL coaching: 25th season (Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Broncos)
Duration as head coach: 4 seasons (Raiders 2022-23, Broncos 2009-10)
Seasons as offensive coordinator: 16 seasons (Patriots 2025-present, 2012-21, 2006-08, Rams 2011)
Previous coaching positions: QB coach, assistant
Coaching influences: Bill Belichick, Charlie Weis, Nick Saban
Mentoring by: Belichick, Mike Vrabel, Steve Spagnuolo (Rams), Saban (Michigan State)
Offensive strategy
Passing approach: Pro style
Running strategy: Downhill inside zone plan
Scouting observations:
-
The primary formation is 11 personnel (60%)
-
12 personnel has increased in recent seasons (24%)
-
Using 13 personnel has dropped below 4%, despite playing four tight ends
-
21 personnel consists of both two-RB and RB+FB configurations (8%)
-
Key elements of their scheme include shotgun formations (58%), pre-snap motion, RPOs, rollouts, screens, and flexible game plans
-
Play-action has historically been a focus but has diminished with QB Drake Maye
-
Play-action rate is 20.4% (23rd in the NFL) — Maye’s Expected Points Added (EPA) with play-action is -0.28 (37th)
-
When operating effectively, they can accumulate yardage: 369.4 yards per game (8th), 6.0 yards per play (5th)
-
Turnovers have plagued them all season: -1.2 turnover margin per game (31st)
-
Interceptions have been an issue for Maye, who has thrown 11 (tied for most in the NFL)
-
Three first-half interceptions against the Packers: 1) breakdown in communication; 2) thrown into heavy traffic; 3) being predictable
-
Fourth turnover against the Packers: a second-half fumble by RB Rhamondre Stevenson
-
Injuries on the offensive line have contributed to protection challenges
-
Pressures allowed: 141 (28th); pressure rate: 42.9% (31st); time to pressure: 2.78 seconds (29th)
-
Sacks allowed: 20 (17th); rate: 6.6% (18th)
-
Maye performs well against blitzes: 0.03 EPA (14th); under pressure: -0.04 (4th)
-
Maye adeptly maneuvers in the pocket and utilizes designed rollouts to find better angles when facing pressure
-
WR AJ Brown has been the primary target (22% target share) when fit, though he has dealt with injuries throughout most of the season
-
Keep an eye on TE Hunter Henry, who receives a 14% target share (4th on team) but ranks second in total EPA among skill position players
-
The rushing attack is a focal point, but has not met expectations
-
They rank in the middle for many statistical measures
-
Success has emerged in yards gained after contact: 3.44 average yards after contact (4th best)
-
They run inside on 58.6% of their rushing attempts, ranking 4th in the NFL
-
Starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson is the strongest choice, although he’s currently facing injury challenges
-
RB2 TreyVevon Henderson has fallen short of expectations and is noted as out.
Dan Campbell discusses the Patriots offense:
“Josh (McDaniels) and his team have done an excellent job. Drake (Maye) is incredibly effective in evading pressure at the moment. He’s dangerous while extending plays, making those five-plus-second throws. The talent surrounding him, including (WR DeMario Douglas) and (WR Kyle Williams), along with freshly returned (WR Mack) Hollins and (TE Hunter Henry), creates a significant threat. They’re a very lethal unit. We’ve got our work cut out for us.”
Defensive coordinator: Zak Kuhr
Coaching experience in the NFL: 7th season (Patriots, Giants, Titans)
Tenure as defensive coordinator: 2nd season (interim in 2025)
Previous roles: Inside LB coach, defensive aide, quality control
Influences in coaching: Mike Vrabel, Shane Bowen (Giants DC 2024)
Training under: Vrabel, Bowen, Brian Daboll (Giants)
Lions coaching staff connections: Assistant HC Terrell Williams (former Lions DL coach)
Defensive strategy
Base formation: Balanced 34 hybrid (Belichick system)
Coverage schemes: Cover-1 Man Free, Cover-2/3/4 Zone — off-coverage corners/split-zone safeties
Scouting observations:
-
Nickel 24: 77.7% usage — the second-highest in the NFL
-
High blitz frequency: 40.1% (6th) — extremely aggressive in these scenarios
-
Blitzes primarily feature straight approaches with a Cover-3 appearance in the secondary
-
In non-blitz situations, stunts and twists are incorporated
-
The pass rush currently stands as their strongest asset
-
Pressures: 120 (10th); rate: 37.3% (9th); time to pressure: 2.62 (13th)
-
Sacks: 25 (9th); rate: 7.8% (5th)
-
The pass rushers display athleticism on the edges, and the interior defensive tackles effectively win matchups
-
Nevertheless, they fundamentally prioritize “stopping the run” as their primary goal
-
Average rush yards allowed per game: 96.7 (9th); per play: 3.9 (9th)
-
Yards before contact: 0.57 (3rd); yards after contact: 3.31 (24th)
-
Allow 12% of run plays to turn into explosive plays (20th) — typically when offenses target the edges
-
Teams attack the outside against the Patriots 53.8% of the time (10th highest rate)
-
Secondary exhibits a man-heavy approach (36%), primarily using Cover-1 Man Free — single-high with a “Free” defender utilized situationally
-
Zone schemes maintain balance: Cover-2 (22%), Cover-3 (23%), Cover-4 (19%)
-
The secondary was expected to be a strong point, yet they are encountering difficulties, particularly as of late
-
Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass yards allowed this season: 0.07 (26th)
-
EPA per pass allowed in the last four games: 0.35 (31st)
-
Proportion of explosive passes allowed: 7.2% (30th)
-
Frequent off-coverage and split-zone mistakes noted against the Packers and Bears
Dan Campbell discusses Patriots defense:
“Defensively, they resemble us quite a bit. They aim to prevent you from establishing the run. They are disruptive, tall, and possess versatility in their defensive line. There’s a stream of competent players across the board creating chaos. When the pressure comes, they deploy tight man coverage, compelling you to deliver accurate passes with defenders in your face and make challenging catches.”
