During the 2022-23 season, the Utah Jazz found themselves in a favorable position. They had transitioned into a rebuilding phase during the preceding summer, having traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert (including, notably, Royce O’Neale) in exchange for a combination of future draft selections, pick exchanges, promising young players, and established contributors. Their impressive start of 10 wins and 3 losses proved unsustainable, but it quickly became apparent that Lauri Markkanen, the skilled 7-foot shooter acquired in the Mitchell transaction, possessed far greater potential than that of a mere rotation player. He achieved an average of 25.6 points with a true shooting percentage of 64%, earning him both an All-Star selection and the Most Improved Player award. Utah eventually dropped out of contention for a playoff spot, finishing with a record of 37 wins and 45 losses, but only after parting ways with several significant players before the trade deadline and experimenting with unconventional lineups in the latter part of the season.
The Jazz’s prospects appeared promising, given the seemingly limitless possibilities that lay ahead. They had the option to accelerate their progress by trading for a prominent player, patiently build through the draft, or pursue a strategy that combined elements of both approaches. However, a couple of years later, questions arise regarding the extent of their remaining patience. They are coming off a season where they achieved only 17 victories against 65 defeats, with Markkanen, now 28 years old, averaging 19 points with a true shooting percentage of 57.1% while commanding 30% of the salary cap. They have yet to finalize a rookie contract extension with Walker Kessler, whose name has consistently surfaced in trade rumors throughout his career. None of their draft selections from 2023 and 2024 (Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski) have solidified their positions as integral components of the team’s core. The team has appointed a new president, Austin Ainge, and it remains uncertain whether the selection of Ace Bailey with the No. 5 pick will be deemed a stroke of genius or a regrettable blunder. Using an analogy popularized by Sam Hinkie, they have sown numerous seeds, but the orchard is still far from reaching its full potential.
The Current Situation
Previous Season: In the third year of their rebuilding process, Utah swiftly accumulated losses. They had a record of 10-36 by the end of January, compared to 26-26 at the same point in Year 1 and 24-25 in Year 2. Paradoxically, the Jazz from the early part of the season were significantly more competitive than their later counterparts. Beginning in March, the team managed to win only 2 out of 23 games, resulting in a league-worst net rating of -14.7. In March, Utah incurred a $100,000 fine for violating the Player Participation Policy, yet this policy did not prevent teams from limiting the playing time of their key players in the second halves of games, which is precisely what the Jazz did. They concluded the season with the poorest record in the league, guaranteeing that their draft pick would be no lower than fifth.
The Offseason: They experienced the worst possible outcome in the lottery, falling to the lowest available position, and ultimately selected Bailey, a 6-foot-7 scorer who had opted not to participate in workouts with them (as well as certain other teams). They also executed a trade, moving up from No. 21 to No. 18 to acquire Walter Clayton Jr., a 22-year-old point guard who had enhanced his draft stock by leading Florida to the NCAA championship. In a peculiar move, they relinquished a second-round pick to trade Collin Sexton for Jusuf Nurkic. However, they acquired three second-round picks by trading John Collins for Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson and taking on Georges Niang’s contract.
Vegas over/under: 18.5 wins, according to BetMGM
The Discussion
Jazz Supporter: I must admit that I was hoping the Jazz would secure Cooper Flagg, but the lottery operates on chance. From the instant that Austin Ainge stated that their “ideal scenario” for the draft was to acquire both Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr., I officially adjusted my expectations (and thoroughly familiarized myself with Bailey’s highlight reel). Even now, months later, it remains astounding to me that Bailey was still available. He possesses greater potential than the three players selected immediately before him, and star wings continue to be the most valuable asset in the league. I have no doubt that Will Hardy and his player development staff will maximize Bailey’s abilities. In my view, the Jazz resemble the 2021-22 Thunder: They require time, but not as much as some may believe.
Jazz Detractor: Unless Cody Williams is on the verge of transforming into Jalen Williams, your assessment is unrealistic. The Jazz’s drafting record is nowhere near as successful as the Thunder’s – an absolute exception in the realm of NBA team-building, by the way – and Lauri Markkanen is not comparable to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Despite their struggles, I enjoyed watching OKC during the early Mark Daigneault era, and I also appreciated watching Utah during the initial phase of the Hardy era. However, I cannot express the same sentiment regarding last year’s team. Too many egregious turnovers. Terribly lacking in defense. Overall, a negative experience.
Jazz Supporter: Did you even follow the Jazz last season? While winning was not their primary objective, they were well-coached and displayed commendable effort, similar to the Thunder when they were a lottery team. Interesting fact: The lineup that Utah utilized most frequently (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler) achieved a net rating of plus-7.4. However, this lineup only played together for a total of 196 minutes across 15 games. But, enough about last season. Cody Williams may not reach the All-NBA level of his brother, but, based on his summer league performance, he is already a significantly different – and considerably stronger – player than he was during his rookie season. I anticipate a strong resurgence from Markkanen, I expect Clayton to make an immediate impact, and I am eager to observe the progress of the returning young players over the summer. Kyle Filipowski dominated summer league, but Taylor Hendricks is my personal favorite among the young Jazz players. With both him and Bailey on the court, the Jazz will be considerably more athletic (and exciting!) than they have ever been.
Jazz Detractor: I appreciate the concept of Hendricks — a player who excels in both three-point shooting and defense, possessing the size and athleticism to defend almost any opponent — but he was sidelined for nearly all of last season and spent a significant portion of his rookie year in the G League. I suggest maintaining modest expectations for both him and Bailey, the latter of whom should undoubtedly be viewed as a long-term project. In fact, the primary reason for my skepticism regarding the Jazz rebuild stems from the fact that, on the one occasion they fully committed to tanking, the Basketball Gods punished them. Ainge took a considerable risk with Bailey, and I suspect it may prove to be a major miscalculation. His shot selection is among the worst I have ever witnessed, his ballhandling skills are questionable, his passing instincts are poor, his lack of upper-body strength presents numerous challenges, and he does not consistently compete on defense. If Hardy’s staff can transform him into a winning player, they will have performed a series of miracles. (Also, are you certain you wish to contend that last year’s Jazz played with effort? My favorite quote from the entire season was Hardy’s description of a 50-point defeat against Dallas: “That was an absolutely horrendous performance from start to finish. That was a masterpiece of dogshit.”)
Jazz Supporter: That was merely one game! He also stated, “I haven’t been disappointed in our team very often this year,” but I suppose you overlooked that portion of the quote. Furthermore, Bailey is barely 19 years old! I recall similar criticisms being leveled against Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards when they were draft prospects. Some of your criticisms of Rutgers Ace Bailey have validity, but Utah Ace Bailey will not have the same responsibilities. Besides, ballhandling, strength, and decision-making can all be improved through training. His remarkable shot-making ability, his high release point, his confidence, and his athleticism are all innate qualities that cannot be taught. Most star scorers exhibit defensive deficiencies at his age, and most are unable to fly around and block shots as help defenders in the manner that he can. In some ways, the Jazz are fortunate that Bailey was not a more complete player in college. Had he been, they would have had virtually no chance of acquiring someone with his talent at No. 5.
Jazz Detractor: All I am suggesting is that I desire my franchise cornerstones to emulate the approach that Ainge has vowed to adopt as team president: To make “a multitude of good decisions repeatedly.” I have seen nothing to indicate that Bailey is that type of player, and, to put it mildly, the evaluation of many of the decisions made by the Jazz’s front office prior to Ainge’s arrival remains incomplete. Looking ahead, I have a few fundamental questions regarding their future: What are the odds that one of Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, or Clayton will develop into a starting-caliber guard? Why is Jusuf Nurkić on the roster? And how much more of this rebuilding process is Markkanen willing to endure?
