AFCON Last 16 Predictions: Tough Road for Bafana & Algeria; Nigeria & Morocco Cruise – ESPN

As the Africa Cup of Nations reaches its Round of 16, several compelling encounters await, notably Algeria against DR Congo and South Africa facing Cameroon.

Prior to these fixtures, Ed Dove of ESPN offers his specific forecasts for every AFCON knockout stage match, pinpointing the critical factors for victory or defeat.

Saturday 4pmUK/6pm CAT

Senegal demonstrated dominance over Botswana and Benin in the group phase, and their diverse array of offensive capabilities is anticipated to overwhelm Sudan.

Nevertheless, the Falcons of Jediane are expected to present a formidable obstacle; their physical style posed issues for Algeria in their initial game – even after an early concession to Riyad Mahrez – and they illustrated their robust, organized, and resilient defensive qualities against Equatorial Guinea.

Regardless, the Teranga Lions’ midfield duo of Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Gueye is likely to gain superiority over their direct adversaries.

Sudan progressed to this stage without netting a single goal in open play, making it improbable for them to pose a threat to Senegal outside of dead-ball situations, especially as the Teranga Lions possess extensive knockout stage experience and formidable attacking prowess.

Dove’s Forecast: Senegal progresses

Saturday 7pmUK/9pm CAT

Here lies the initial chance for an unexpected outcome; Tunisia enters as favorites due to their AFCON history, yet even coach Sami Trabelsi has called for a psychological regrouping following their difficulties in the group phase.

Their 3-2 loss to Nigeria somewhat disguised their performance, as they were comprehensively outplayed for the opening seventy minutes of the match, and defensive frailties in goal present a distinct weakness for Mali to capitalize on.

Mali feels optimistic about their prospects, despite concluding all three group matches with draws, even against less-fancied Zambia and Comoros.

Their performance improved significantly against the host nation Morocco, appearing dynamic, aggressive, and sharp in the latter half, arguably deserving more than the single spot-kick they received.

Mali stands as the tournament’s most assertive squad – accumulating 10 yellow cards and one red – and should they recapture the intensity displayed against Morocco, they possess the ability to dominate the Carthage Eagles.

Dove’s Forecast: Mali moves forward

Sunday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

The most significant imbalance of the Round of 16 appears to be this fixture. Morocco, performing before their home supporters at the national stadium, showcased strong displays throughout the group phase – with the exception of the second half against Mali – led by Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi in a skilled lineup boasting superior technical ability and possibly the most well-rounded midfield in the entire contest.

Achraf Hakimi’s return against Zambia is also expected to aid their victory over a Tanzanian team that has, astonishingly, reached the knockout rounds despite never having secured a Nations Cup win in their existence.

The East African side progressed with a tally of two points and a negative one goal differential, achieving this through stalemates with Tunisia and Uganda, though their brave defensive showing in the loss to Nigeria merits praise; can custodian Zuberi ‘Foba’ Masudi deliver additional extraordinary saves this Sunday?

Dove’s Forecast: Morocco proceeds

South Africa vs Cameroon

Sunday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

This is among the most challenging contests to predict, as Cameroon surpassed expectations to secure second place in Group F, notwithstanding their chaotic preparations for the tournament.

The Indomitable Lions haven’t consistently exhibited fluid play, yet Christian Kofane has surfaced as a potent offensive asset, particularly highlighted by his spectacular goal against Mozambique, and Carlos Baleba has successfully overcome his underwhelming performance at Brighton.

South Africa displayed a deficiency in composure and creative thinking for nearly an hour when facing a ten-man Egyptian squad, and therefore, despite defeating weaker opponents like Zimbabwe and Angola, their performance against a genuine, albeit struggling, continental powerhouse is still an unknown.

Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster, collectively involved in six direct goals, possess the potential to challenge the five-time titleholders, and Bafana Bafana will draw confidence from their impressive performance under former Cameroon manager Hugo Broos, along with their previous experience of reaching the semi-finals.

Dove’s Forecast: Cameroon progresses (narrowly)

Egypt vs Benin

Monday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

Anticipate a less-than-thrilling encounter. Egypt has yet to fully hit their rhythm in the competition, though Omar Marmoush appeared promising in their 2-1 triumph over Zimbabwe, and Mohamed Salah has delivered crucial plays, netting winning goals against both Zimbabwe and South Africa.

Their organized, disciplined defensive setup is improbable to face significant challenges from a Benin team that managed only a single goal across their three group fixtures and recorded merely three shots on target against a less formidable Botswana squad.

Benin has already achieved a new milestone by securing their inaugural victory at the Nations Cup, but I do not foresee a recurrence of their surprising Round of 16 triumph over Morocco from the previous tournament.

Dove’s Forecast: Egypt moves forward

Nigeria vs Mozambique

Monday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

The Super Eagles have stood out as one of the tournament’s most formidable teams to date, securing the leading position in Group C as one of just three squads to maintain a flawless record thus far.

Given Ademola Lookman’s display of the caliber that earned him the African Footballer of the Year accolade, Victor Osimhen’s growing acuity, Alex Iwobi generating more scoring opportunities per game than any other participant, and Samuel Chukwueze transferring his Fulham performance to the AFCON, their collective strength should prove overwhelming for the Mambas.

Mozambique’s victory on matchday two over a disorganized Gabon squad was sufficient for their progression, but do they possess adequate talent in Geny Catamo, Faizal Bangal, and their notable fullbacks to challenge a somewhat unsettled Super Eagles defensive unit?

Dove’s Forecast: Nigeria progresses

Algeria vs DR Congo

Tuesday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

Undoubtedly the standout fixture of this round. Algeria appeared truly impressive throughout their group stage, advancing with a perfect nine points and showcasing several of the competition’s most exceptional talents, including Riyad Mahrez, Ibrahim Maza, and Mohamed Amoura.

Nonetheless, they are yet to encounter an adversary as formidable as the DRC, who enters the knockout phase with strong momentum after triumphing in the African World Cup qualifying playoffs and then completing their group stage without a single defeat.

Their endeavors to accumulate goals against Botswana in their concluding group match, aiming to surpass Senegal for the top position, highlighted the Leopards’ strong desire to bypass Algeria in the knockout rounds, and it will demand an immense exertion for Sebastien Desabre’s squad to contain the competition’s most potent offensive force.

The Central African team possesses its own offensive prowess, particularly with players such as Cédric Bakambu, Théo Bongonda, and Gaël Kakuta, but Algeria has appeared exceptionally well-rounded, and the considerable ‘home’ advantage of their North African fan base is expected to provide them with a decisive advantage.

Dove’s Forecast: Algeria progresses

Tuesday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

In this West African clash between neighboring nations, Burkina Faso has achieved at least a semi-final berth in three of their previous five tournament outings, thus dismissing them against the reigning champions would be ill-advised.

Despite this, Ivory Coast has displayed greater capability in the current competition, with Amad Diallo visibly thriving, and they will approach the game with renewed impetus following their comeback win against an uninspired Gabon in their most recent fixture.

The initial phases of that encounter underscored the Elephants’ susceptibilities, and while the Stallions certainly possess the aptitude to capitalize on these frailties, they have barely demonstrated it in the tournament to date, notwithstanding their average of 56% ball possession throughout their three group stage matches.

Expect the Ivorians, among the most comfortable teams with the ball at feet in this competition, to have the better of the action on the grass, while Burkina Faso could be a fearsome prospect from set pieces.

Dove’s Forecast: Ivory Coast moves forward