The stage is set for the 2025 American League Championship Series!
Beginning Sunday in Toronto, the No. 2 seed Seattle Mariners and the No. 1 seed Toronto Blue Jays will face off, with a coveted spot in the World Series hanging in the balance.
Seattle prevailed over the Detroit Tigers in a gripping ALDS Game 5 on Friday evening, two days following Toronto’s victory over the New York Yankees, their AL East rivals, to advance to the ALCS.
What aspects of each team have been particularly notable thus far? What actions must each team take to secure their place in the Fall Classic? And which players on each team could prove to be decisive factors? Our ESPN MLB analysts offer their detailed perspectives.
Note: Game predictions are derived from Doolittle’s statistical model, utilizing power rankings to conduct 10,000 simulations and identify the most probable outcomes. Team performance levels are assessed using Bill James’ methodology for gauging team “hotness” or “coldness”; the average is set at 72°.
Finally! Avid followers of the 1977 expansion have eagerly anticipated this LCS showdown since the early years of the Carter administration. The Blue Jays and Mariners were established concurrently but have never competed with such high stakes. The Mariners defeated the Blue Jays in a wild-card series in 2022, but this encounter carries greater significance.
The two top division winners in the AL are competing to bring an end to lengthy World Series droughts. Toronto has not secured a title in 31 years, while Seattle has yet to achieve victory.
The esteemed Willie Horton was among the initial players to represent both franchises. Although he is primarily remembered as a Tiger and has a commemorative statue at Comerica Park, he should be given the honor of throwing the ceremonial first pitch in both Seattle and Toronto. — Bradford Doolittle
No. 1 seed Blue Jays’ level of concern: Appropriately vigilant. Toronto holds the advantage as the higher seed and benefits from home-field advantage, but Seattle’s performance has been slightly stronger in the latter part of the season, with nearly identical run differentials.
The presence of star players on both sides is truly exhilarating, with standout performances observed during October. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and the exceptionally strong Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been crucial to their teams’ success.
Both teams have heavily relied on home runs for scoring, with more than half of their runs originating from long balls. This is a closely contested matchup that could hinge on Andres Munoz, Seattle’s strength at the end of the bullpen. — Doolittle
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds of advancing: 55.1%
Team temperature: 96°
What was the most prominent aspect of the Blue Jays’ triumph over the Yankees in the ALDS?
Castillo: The persistent nature of their batting order. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered excellent performances throughout, but Toronto received contributions from nearly every player inserted into the lineup by manager John Schneider. Four players aside from Guerrero recorded two hits in Game 1. Daulton Varsho registered four extra-base hits, and Ernie Clement achieved a 3-for-4 in Game 2. Clement added another four hits in Game 3.
The Blue Jays exhibited the lowest strikeout rate during the regular season and recorded more home runs than strikeouts in the initial two games at Rogers Centre, where they have experienced success throughout the season. The emergence of Playoff Vladdy Jr., who went 9-for-17 with three home runs, including a significant grand slam in Game 2, was instrumental.
Schoenfield: It’s essential to highlight Trey Yesavage’s exceptionally dominant performance in Game 2, where he made his fourth career start and maintained a no-hitter against the Yankees for 5⅓ innings, while also striking out 11. The Yankees were simply unable to compete against him. Apart from the duration of the start — the Blue Jays removed him with a substantial lead — it was among the most dominant postseason pitching performances observed in recent memory.
His over-the-top delivery creates an unusual sight for batters, and he’s throwing at speeds of 95-96 mph with a slider and devastating splitter. It’s remarkable to think that 19 players were chosen before him in the 2024 draft.
Why will (or won’t) it be effective against the Mariners in the ALCS?
Castillo: It’ll be effective at Rogers Centre due to its consistent effectiveness at Rogers Centre throughout the season. The Blue Jays scored 431 runs at home during the regular season, ranking third highest in the majors. In the ALDS, they scored 23 in two games in Toronto. The Blue Jays overwhelm pitchers on their home ground. The crucial question is whether it will be effective in Seattle. T-Mobile Park is a difficult venue for hitting. Mariners pitchers recorded a 3.28 ERA at home this season. However, the Blue Jays scored 21 runs in a three-game sweep of the Mariners in May. It is possible that their offensive capability will translate away from home.
Schoenfield: It will be effective… if he consistently throws strikes. He achieved this against the Yankees, walking only one batter in his start, but in the minor leagues, he walked 41 batters in 98 innings. The Mariners possess a mix of disciplined hitters (Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena) and hitters who tend to chase pitches (Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez), but similar to the Yankees, the Mariners also have a high strikeout rate.
Which individual player stands out as the X factor who could either ensure or jeopardize Toronto’s chances of reaching the World Series?
Castillo: Trey Yesavage. Expecting a rookie with only four major league starts to continue his dominant performance deep into October is a considerable demand, but the Blue Jays lack a clear-cut premier ace. Yesavage has the potential to fulfill this role. Not only is his repertoire impressive, but his unique style can confound even the most seasoned hitters. His release point and arm angle are among the highest in baseball, making his fastball-splitter combination exceptionally challenging to solve. Furthermore, his slider often moves towards the arm side rather than the usual glove side. Toronto has managed the 22-year-old right-hander carefully. He has not exceeded 94 pitches in a game this season, which began for him in Low-A. He now finds himself on the sport’s biggest stage and could be the deciding factor in October.
Schoenfield: Shane Bieber. Kevin Gausman and Yesavage performed admirably, but with a 6-1 lead in Game 3, Bieber was taken out in the third inning. Given the Toronto bullpen’s subpar performance afterward, it may have been a premature decision, but it’s evident that the Blue Jays will require all three of these starters to pitch effectively, given that the bullpen did not consistently deliver scoreless innings against the Yankees. The Blue Jays’ capability to make contact — they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors — suggests they should continue to score runs, so the key question is whether they can prevent sufficient runs from reaching the scoreboard.
Seattle Mariners
Odds of advancing: 44.9%
Team temperature: 89°
What was the most notable aspect of the Mariners’ victory over the Tigers in the ALDS?
Gonzalez: The effectiveness of the starting rotation, which is not surprising. George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller — at least before the fifth inning — all performed well in the ALDS. There is hope that Bryan Woo, the Mariners’ most effective starter this season, will recover from a pectoral injury for the ALCS, further enhancing the rotation’s strength.
The Mariners have confidence in their late-game relievers and believe they have assembled the strongest lineup in this era. However, their success is still primarily dependent on the starting pitching — a unit that displayed dominance throughout 2024 and began to regain form during the final stretch of this season. The starters must consistently deliver six or seven innings so that manager Dan Wilson does not have to rely on Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Andres Munoz late in games. This represents the core strategy.
Doolittle: Seattle’s lineup depth is highly impressive, despite the lack of a standout designated hitter. It’s striking to see Eugenio Suarez batting in the six-hole and J.P. Crawford at No. 9. This is a group known for its power hitting, base stealing, and a reduced strikeout rate compared to previous Mariners lineups. Raleigh and Rodriguez form a dynamic duo in the batting order. The R&R Boys.
Why will (or won’t) it be effective against the Blue Jays in the ALCS?
Gonzalez: No team had a lower strikeout rate than the Blue Jays this season. Only the Yankees and Dodgers had a higher OPS. And when the playoffs commenced, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, and Daulton Varsho slugged a combined 1.000 in four ALDS games. This offense operates at a different level compared to the Tigers’ — and Bo Bichette might return for the upcoming round.
Gilbert and Woo pitched effectively against the Blue Jays this season (five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings). Castillo and Miller (15 earned runs in 15 innings) did not. However, the teams have not played each other since May. The Mariners’ rotation has changed since then.
Doolittle: A deep lineup presents challenges for any opponent, but there is one factor that favors Seattle. With Trey Yesavage’s emergence for Toronto, the Blue Jays have four key pitchers who excel with splitters, the breakout pitch of the 2025 postseason. (Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Seranthony Dominguez, and Jeff Hoffman are the four.)
The Mariners ranked in the middle for hitting splitters during the season, but two of their hitters dominated them. Those hitters are the R&R Boys — Raleigh had a 1.159 OPS against splitters, and Rodriguez had a 1.091.
Which individual player is the X factor who could either ensure or jeopardize Seattle’s chances of reaching the World Series?
Gonzalez: Randy Arozarena. The Mariners inserted Arozarena at the top of the lineup after acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, and Arozarena has struggled significantly since then. He displayed some flashes in the ALDS, but the Mariners need “Playoff Randy” — the player who dominated during the 2020 postseason and became a sensation while playing for Team Mexico in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. If he performs well ahead of Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners’ offense will become formidable.
Doolittle: Matt Brash. This is not entirely fair, as Brash is skilled, and I selected him as a representative of Seattle’s middle relief crew. If the Mariners’ roster has a weak spot, it’s in the non-closing portion of the bullpen. It’s not a poor group, but with a deep, productive lineup and a star closer in Munoz, in addition to excellent starting pitching, it may ultimately be Brash, Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, and Carlos Vargas who determine if the Mariners will finally compete in a World Series.
