According to Betteridge’s law regarding headlines posed as queries, the response is generally a definitive ‘no,’ allowing for dismissal. Nonetheless, a quick look at the betting odds from various bookmakers shows that George Russell, a perennial frontrunner, is still the preferred candidate in sports wagering circles – albeit with a shrinking lead.
Though the season comprises 22 races and is only three weekends underway, Kimi Antonelli’s showing at Suzuka signifies more than just a continuous improvement in skill; it also powerfully conveys his aspirations for the championship title.
Prior to the previous season, some commentators suggested Lando Norris was nearing the end of his window to clinch the drivers’ championship, given that his McLaren colleague, Oscar Piastri, was developing so quickly that he seemed poised to become the leading driver in their duo – assuming his progress didn’t stagnate. Now, despite the 2025 season introducing various unexpected developments – with Piastri appearing at one point ready to exceed expectations sooner – that initial theory holds true.
In a similar vein, observations within the racing community indicated that 2026 might be George Russell’s final opportunity, as he embarks on his eighth Formula 1 season, to establish dominance over his second-year Mercedes team-mate, Antonelli. Russell has consistently prevailed against all previous internal team adversaries throughout his F1 tenure, even Lewis Hamilton – though with some aid from the ground-effect vehicle designs that hindered Hamilton’s driving style – and in the preceding year, he demonstrated further elevated performance, frequently extracting the most possible points from a frequently challenging vehicle.
The current challenge he faces is to determine if this upward trend persists, especially considering the rapid enhancement of his colleague’s abilities.
Antonelli’s swiftness and the thrill he adds to F1 have always been undeniable. What truly strains the nerves of his Mercedes squad and its principal, Toto Wolff, who closely supervises Antonelli’s professional path, is his frequently chaotic approach to grand prix weekends.
FP3 shunt in Melbourne was an example of Antonelli’s tendency to make small but costly errors in otherwise strong weekends
Photo by: Paul Crock / AFP via Getty Images
His journey had its share of fluctuations even prior to his F1 debut, with Antonelli frequently needing encouragement from Wolff – or a reassuring gesture – to regain his composure. The previous year saw him experience an extended and disheartening dip in performance during the season’s midpoint, which was linked to a rear-suspension modification that was ultimately abandoned. A significant improvement in his performance subsequently occurred, marked by particularly impressive showings in Sao Paulo and Las Vegas.
However, Sao Paulo also highlighted a persistent trait: excelling for much of a weekend only to commit a minor yet impactful error that distorts the overall outcome, specifically, an imprecise safety car restart that led to a three-car collision at Turn 1.
This season has presented further instances: a damaging crash during FP3 in Australia that almost prevented him from qualifying, succeeded by a slow start; then two additional delayed departures in China, an avoidable clash with Isack Hadjar on the first lap of the sprint, followed by another flawed safety car restart which hindered his ability to advance through the grid. Furthermore, there was a late-race brake lock-up while leading the grand prix, necessitating a prompt from the pitwall.
These occurrences collectively reinforced the perception that Antonelli had not yet achieved his optimal, well-rounded form.
Subsequently, Japan arrived. He outperformed Russell for the duration of the weekend, prompting Russell to adjust his car’s setup during qualifying, which negatively impacted its rear stability. This issue, naturally, persisted into the race, where Russell faced additional setbacks due to power deployment problems caused by a software malfunction.
Once more, Antonelli executed a weak start in Japan – however, the underlying reason for this is believed to differ from the issues in Australia and China, which stemmed from wheelspin caused by insufficient tire temperature, itself a byproduct of inadequate electrical power during the formation lap. In Suzuka, it was a straightforward error, a miscalculation of his finger placement on the clutch (Russell’s delayed start, conversely, was attributed to residual brake pressure, owing to the downhill slope of the starting straight).
Both Mercedes had poor starts again in Suzuka
Photo by: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images
During the event, Antonelli advanced effectively after his initial fall to sixth position, whereas Russell grew anxious about Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari attempting an undercut, leading to stressed radio communications suggesting that prolonging the first stint would be disadvantageous. This prompted an early pit stop that, unexpectedly, resulted in Russell losing further track position when Oliver Bearman’s Haas crashed, necessitating a safety car intervention which afforded Antonelli and Hamilton advantageous pitstops.
Russell later commented, “Had that [pitstop] occurred one lap later, victory would have been ours. And without the accident, perhaps we would have regretted not pitting then. In motorsport, fortunes can swing either way.”
This perspective contains a degree of optimistic speculation. It is plausible that the deployment of the safety car spared the Mercedes pit crew from a challenging discussion with Russell, as Antonelli seemed destined to overtake him regardless.
The driver from Italy possessed the pace to secure victory deservedly and, at the moment of Russell’s stop, displayed no indication of difficulty with his medium-compound Pirelli tires. He also demonstrated comprehensive command over the energy-management protocols – a contentious yet vital component of the 2026 F1 regulations – surpassing Russell, who had previously excelled in this domain.
Conversely, Russell encountered issues with power deployment, and a modification to the energy recovery settings, intended to provide additional thrust during his battle with Hamilton, provoked an unforeseen ‘super clip’ that resulted in him losing a position to Leclerc (one could argue this illustrates how operating a 2026 F1 car is akin to wrestling with an overzealous auto-correction system).
Antonelli stated post-race, “This marks significant progress. Experience plays a crucial role – last year, I clearly faced numerous challenges that educated me far beyond my expectations, and this is certainly proving beneficial this season. While considerable effort remains, I undeniably feel a greater sense of mastery over circumstances.”
Software glitch caused Russell’s car to super clip unexpectedly, enabling Leclerc to seize the moment
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
Russell, for his part, noted that this was only the third event in a 22-race calendar. However, it will undoubtedly trouble him that his junior colleague exhibited superiority in aspects where Russell had traditionally held the upper hand.
Though the Japanese Grand Prix offers only a small data pool, it served as a crucial caution to Russell that he must optimize every race weekend to fully exploit the advantage of possessing the top car on the starting grid – as this dynamic might shift once other teams close the gap.
Wolff commented, “We must maintain our composure. After three races, we appear to be champions. Yet, in another three races, public opinion might shift, suggesting we are no longer heroes because our competitors have advanced.”
