After a stretch of almost a decade, Houston’s Major League Baseball team will be absent from the MLB postseason.
The Astros’ fate in the postseason was sealed on Saturday, the day before the regular season’s conclusion, due to victories by both the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians. This outcome finalizes the American League playoff teams, with both AL Central teams locking in their postseason berths.
The non-appearance concludes what was the fourth-longest postseason appearance streak in MLB history and was the second-longest active run after the Los Angeles Dodgers (13 years).
This turn of events would have been deemed improbable by many just a couple of months earlier. As recently as July 6, the Astros held a seven-game lead in the AL West. Despite a slight reduction in that lead, the team received a morale boost with the re-acquisition of Carlos Correa at the MLB trade deadline, among other transactional moves.
Since then, the team has regressed significantly, while the Seattle Mariners, the AL West champions, experienced a surge in performance following significant acquisitions at the trade deadline. Currently, key Astros players on the injured list include star hitter Yordan Alvarez, starting pitcher Luis Garcia, closer Josh Hader, shortstop Jeremy Peña, and starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.
The low point for Houston occurred this month, marked by losses in six of their last seven games, ceding the division lead to Seattle. This included a three-game sweep by the Mariners, which sent Houston into a downward spiral from which it couldn’t recover during its final series against the Los Angeles Angels.
With the season’s premature end, the Astros face several crucial decisions this offseason, most notably regarding the future of starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who will be a free agent. The organization also confronts more fundamental challenges, given its previous reputation for exceptional talent at all levels and a front office known for its effectiveness.
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The Astros have faced departures of key players even before the 2022 World Series — and their replacements haven’t been up to par.
The Astros’ trajectory over recent times can be summarized through the tenures of three general managers.
First, there was Jeff Luhnow, known for establishing a consistent winning culture that culminated in the 2017 World Series. However, his leadership also fostered a culture that led to the team’s sign-stealing controversy, among other incidents.
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Then came James Click, recruited from the Tampa Bay Rays following Luhnow’s departure. During his tenure, some of the team’s most valuable players — Correa, George Springer, Gerrit Cole — left, but he maintained the front office’s focus on analytics, leading the team to win the 2022 World Series with a fresh crop of talent. He was dismissed immediately after the 2022 title win, reportedly due to conflicts with team owner Jim Crane.
Currently, Dana Brown holds the position, and his appointment was specifically aimed at shifting the team’s strategy away from analytics and toward traditional scouting. Additionally, there’s an unofficial co-GM dynamic, as senior advisor Jeff Bagwell has direct access to Crane and has expressed his dissatisfaction with the team’s emphasis on analytics.
Since Click’s departure, the team has continued to see significant departures, including Justin Verlander (twice), Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker, with Valdez potentially joining the list. The primary objective of hiring Brown, who favors scouting, was to identify young talent to mitigate these losses, but this has not yet occurred.
The Astros were positioned at No. 29 in MLB Pipeline’s organizational rankings at midseason, and not because several impactful players had recently graduated from the minors into the major leagues. According to FanGraphs’ WAR calculations, the Astros ranked among the bottom five in MLB for players aged 25 and younger.
Moreover, every major free-agent signing made by Houston under the current management has been unsuccessful. Hader (five years, $95 million) is currently injured and has recorded an ERA with the Astros that is half a run higher than his career average. Christian Walker (three years, $60 million) posted a batting line of .236/.296/.410 this year, his inaugural season in Houston. José Abreu (three years, $58.5 million) was an unequivocal failure. Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5 million) has registered a 4.81 ERA throughout his contract and is now playing for the Tigers.
The Astros once possessed a winning formula. Now, due to the ownership’s decisions, they operate differently. So far, the current approach is not producing the desired outcomes.
Looking to the future, even if Valdez departs, Houston will have some basis for optimism next season, with hopes for improved health and a full season from Correa. However, this scenario is typical for teams experiencing a decline: possessing some talented players (Hunter Brown, a Luhnow draftee, is already considered one of baseball’s top pitchers) but lacking the depth needed to compete effectively throughout a 162-game season.
The Astros achieved 106 wins in 2022, 90 wins in 2023, and 88 wins in 2024, and they are certain to have fewer wins in 2025. In the near future, undergoing another teardown/rebuild phase might seem more appealing than persisting with the current course.
