The baseball offseason, previously quiet, has seen some activity with the Houston Astros completing a three-way player exchange involving the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays. As part of this transaction, the Pirates are transferring starting pitcher Mike Burrows to Houston, while the Rays will receive outfielders Jacob Melton and a pitching prospect named Anderson Brito. Understandably, other significant assets, such as second baseman Brandon Lowe, are being exchanged between the Rays and Pirates. From Houston’s perspective, this deal secures a starting pitcher with long-term team control in exchange for two highly-rated prospects.
Nationally, Brandon Lowe is recognized as the central figure of this exchange, given that the second baseman is just one season away from potential free agency. The Tampa Bay Rays appear to be pursuing a strategy of reducing expenditures this offseason, having previously moved Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles in a distinct trade. For Houston, parting with Brito is a notable sacrifice; however, Burrows brings six years of team control and offers a middle-rotation presence who is not yet eligible for arbitration. Consequently, his arbitration eligibility will commence only after the 2028 season, and he would not be able to pursue free agency until following the 2032 season.
Last season, Burrows recorded a 3.94 ERA across 19 starts for the Pirates, complemented by a 4.00 FIP, with his Statcast ERA generally around 4.30. The anticipation is that the Astros’ renowned pitching development program could further refine his skills and elevate his performance. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting he has already undergone a season of instruction under Brent Strom, suggesting he may already possess a solid developmental foundation. It should also be highlighted that Burrows achieved a .646 BPO last season. This figure places him above the typical performance for pitchers with at least ten starts, and if a system were to categorize the top 150 starters into groups of 30, he would be comparable to a third-tier starter. Moreover, in a hypothetical scenario where Framber Valdez departs, Burrows would rank as the second starter based on BPO metrics.
Anderson Brito was assigned to Fayetteville during the previous season. While he was listed as the #16 prospect in the Astros’ organization by Fangraphs for that period, there was an expectation that his standing in future prospect evaluations would be considerably higher. It appeared he was slated to begin the season in Corpus Christi as a 21-year-old with a powerful arm. Although a comprehensive background might be available from individuals like Jimmy Price, his general prospect assessment indicated a future role as a late-inning relief pitcher at the major league level.
The decision to include Melton in this transaction holds significance for multiple reasons. Despite facing challenges at the major league level last season, Melton entered the current offseason ranked as the second-highest prospect within the Astros’ organizational structure. Should the team opt to part ways with either Jake Meyers or Jesus Sanchez, or both, they would encounter substantial challenges regarding outfield depth. Therefore, his departure could suggest that at least one of those players is anticipated to remain with the club. Naturally, a significant portion of the offseason remains. Further details concerning Burrows and the entire starting pitching corps will be discussed during a future analysis of the Astros’ pitching rotation development.
