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Greg Wyshynski
The Colorado Avalanche are destined to claim the 2026 Stanley Cup.
I voiced this viewpoint about a month back when prompted for a Cup victor. At the time, my thinking was that I was embracing an offbeat viewpoint, contrasting with the prevailing support for the Edmonton Oilers, recent Stanley Cup Finals runners-up; the Dallas Stars, thrice failing at the Western Conference finals hurdle; and the Vegas Golden Knights, who acquired Mitch Marner during the offseason.
To my astonishment, a look at the ESPN hockey crew’s seasonal forecasts revealed the Avalanche as the clear frontrunners in a packed field. The offbeat stance was no longer unique.
In keeping with tradition, I shared my Stanley Cup prediction with someone from the chosen team at the player media gathering in Las Vegas:
Me: I wanted to let you know that I’m forecasting your team to seize the Stanley Cup.
Avalanche star Cale Makar: I appreciate your confidence.
Me: I should also admit, I’m generally inaccurate with Stanley Cup predictions.
Makar: Well, we intend to challenge that, with luck.
My prediction places the Avalanche defeating the Carolina Hurricanes, making perhaps their sixth attempt to conquer the Eastern Conference under coach Rod Brind’amour. The reasoning follows in my comprehensive 2025-26 NHL season standings predictions.
Here’s a breakdown by division. Playoff contenders are highlighted in bold. Wishing the best to all 32 teams. Enjoy the season, everyone.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Tampa Bay Lightning
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
Boston Bruins
Possibly, there is no better example of the continuous shifting of power in the Atlantic than the observation that the Lightning have not topped the division standings since 2018-19. This is in spite of possessing Nikita Kucherov, only surpassed by Connor McDavid in points (378) over the last three seasons; Andrei Vasilevskiy, third in save percentage (.913) during that period; Victor Hedman, ranked seventh in points among defensemen (191) and a cornerstone of their defense; not to mention a supporting lineup of Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel.
Also, they have Jon Cooper guiding them, regarded by many (excluding Jack Adams Award voters) as the league’s premier coach.
The Lightning are positioned to dominate the Atlantic this season. The combination of Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel recorded over four goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. Cirelli and Hagel together managed a 61% expected goals percentage last season. Ryan McDonagh, an essential team player, rejoined the team where he previously secured two Stanley Cups and enjoyed a quietly impressive 2024-25 season as a defenseman. Tampa Bay stands to benefit from complete seasons from Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, while Gage Goncalves, at 24, still has further potential to unlock. The Bolts are primed to add another championship banner following this season.
The Senators, previously among the Atlantic’s weaker teams, were due to ascend and, indeed, secured a playoff spot last spring for the first occasion since 2017. Their growth should proceed, presuming the forward lineup delivers.
Brady Tkachuk, maturing into a leading NHL captain, needs to rediscover his 30-goal form – and it will be vital that his linemate, Tim Stützle, resumes a 90-point pace. Dylan Cozens has already indicated that he will become another regret for Buffalo Sabres following his acquisition just ahead of last season’s trade deadline. But this year’s success depends on figures such as Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, and Fabian Zetterlund, who, despite being a trade deadline disappointment, was still awarded a three-season extension by Ottawa.
The reliance on the forwards enhances the confidence in the Sens’ defensive unit. Jake Sanderson has cemented his place among the elite, which has enabled Thomas Chabot to excel on a second pairing alongside Nick Jensen. Jordan Spence’s transfer from the Kings offers a major improvement over Travis Hamonic’s contribution from last season. Linus Ullmark was outstanding from December onward last season. His partner in goal, Leevi Merilainen, might be a surprise contender for the Calder Trophy. There is much for coach Travis Green to look forward to, having significantly improved the team’s defensive organization in the previous season. The Senators are upgrading while their Atlantic rivals decline.
Mitch Marner’s absence equates to a reduction in points for the Maple Leafs. He is a winger capable of amassing 100 points, who spearheaded the team in power-play points, and was their foremost penalty-killing forward. Did his effectiveness continue into the postseason? Clearly not, which invited criticism, at times harsh. But in the previous regular season, no one contributed more wins above replacement for the Leafs than Marner (2.8). That will likely be highlighted when he plays against Toronto while with Vegas on Jan. 23, a return which will overshadow John Tavares’ reappearance on Long Island as a Leaf.
One of the “Core Four” has departed, but perhaps a new one has emerged. Replacing Mitch Marner with Matthew Knies might be seen as similar to the Ninja Turtles substituting Leonardo with Casey Jones, but Knies is prepared for a breakthrough after a 29-goal campaign. The Leafs understand what they have in William Nylander, who sits eighth in goals scored (125) over the last three seasons, and they place him with Tavares, who at 35, represents half the player of his former self and is compensated accordingly. Judging by his career trend, Auston Matthews should score more than 60 goals this season. The Leafs would appreciate seeing the former MVP regain his dominant presence following injuries that hindered him last season. Similarly, for Team USA at the Olympic Games in February.
The Leafs acquired Matias Maccelli from Utah to help compensate for the points lost through Marner’s departure, and it appears counterintuitive to add a player who registered just six hits in 55 matches to a team coached by Craig Berube. However, on the roster, a pattern of a Craig Berube team emerges: Nicolas Roy, joining from Vegas as part of Marner’s exit, is a dependable third-line center. A full season of Brandon Carlo adds size and strength to a blue line that protects Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who inspired confidence last year despite persistent injury issues. This new solidity would conventionally result in playoff triumphs. But, the Maple Leafs may struggle due to a shortage of offensive talent.
Concerning talent attrition: can the Panthers manage without Matthew Tkachuk until December and Aleksander Barkov until April? The answer is: “in this conference, probably”. But sadly, the Panthers’ ambition for a three-peat might end with them failing to make the playoffs, particularly given my growing affinity for the coastal views and seafood during coverage of their last three Stanley Cup Final visits.
The Panthers’ most valuable asset this season is definitively Sam Reinhart. Over the last two seasons of play without Barkov on his line (593:21 of 5-on-5 ice time), the Panthers scored 0.75 fewer goals per 60 minutes with Reinhart on the ice, breaking even in goals scored and conceded. Coach Paul Maurice appears inclined to move Brad Marchand onto a line with Sam Bennett, while Eetu Luostarinen and Anton “Baby Barkov” Lundell accompany Reinhart during Tkachuk’s unavailability. Following Tkachuk’s return, Reinhart, who has netted 160 goals in 321 games since joining the Panthers, will still need to lead his line in Barkov’s absence, and this is not assured.
There may be some benefit for a two-time defending champion to enter a season with reduced pressure due to these injuries. The Panthers were already set on simply qualifying for the playoffs. They are now able to consolidate and rely on a solid defensive structure, arguably the best top four in the conference – Aaron Ekblad, Gus Forsling, Seth Jones, and Niko Mikkola – protecting Sergei Bobrovsky. GM Bill Zito has kept this squad intact with the goal of becoming the NHL’s initial dynasty with three consecutive Cups since the 1980s Islanders. With both Tkachuk and Barkov in peak health, a three-peat could be within reach. However, getting a playoff invitation will be more challenging than it has been since Maurice took charge in Sunrise.
The Sabres are the most unpredictable team in the Atlantic this season. Their standings have regressed across recent seasons. Health continues to be a concern, especially when Josh Norris is depended upon as a key center. Goaltending is more of a gamble than a certainty for a Vezina Trophy. There are certainties – Tage Thompson’s offensive prowess securing an Olympic roster spot, Rasmus Dahlin potentially recognized with the Norris Trophy – but the incremental enhancements GM Kevyn Adams has applied to the roster seem insufficient to answer its underlying questions.
In spite of these issues, the hockey analytics community admires the Sabres this season. Various fancy stats analysts anticipate them ending with over 90 points, with projections from Evolving Hockey pushing as high as 99 points. As Jack “JFresh” Fraser noted in his season preview: “Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins – all are good to great players. This team has had multiple weak links for years and appears to have addressed these for the first time. Add in Dahlin and Thompson, both of whom are star players. But, would I bet on this? Certainly not. Yet, it is worth observing.”
The Canadiens also emerged as a breakout team last season, qualifying for the playoffs. However, they were defeated by the Washington Capitals in five games. I believe this skilled young team will take a backward step this season ahead of an expected future jump. The Canadiens are weak defensively. Their expected goals against during even-strength play last season (2.87, ranking 31st) was worse than the San Jose Sharks. They were fourth from the bottom in scoring chances conceded. I do not think they have done enough to correct this. In fact, matters might have worsened, regardless of Noah Dobson’s and Ivan Demidov’s offensive contributions. There is only so much that Sam Montembeault can address with his goaltending skills, which saved 25 goals above expectation last season.
The most recent element of GM Steve Yzerman’s “Yzerplan”, which the Red Wings have executed since 2019: finally securing John Gibson from Anaheim for the closing two years of his contract. Detroit used four goalies last season, with Cam Talbot as the only reliable option. This new goaltending pairing on a team coached by Todd McLellan creates concern, although not as much as Gibson’s struggle to remain available does. Besides the goaltending, it is another season showcasing the young talent – Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond, and Marco Kasper (it is hoped), otherwise Detroit will be in trouble this season. The Wings lack the necessary talent to qualify for the playoffs, but possess sufficient skill to limit their lottery prospects. Sadly, this outcome has been the most concrete result of the Yzerplan.
My assessment of the Bruins here might prove conservative. With a healthy defensive unit in front of Jeremy Swayman, who had a proper training camp, they could secure victories for first-year coach Marco Sturm. The “defense corps” essentially depends on Charlie McAvoy, who was limited to 50 matches last season while recording his lowest points-per-60 minutes average in six seasons. Even a Norris Trophy-worthy return for Charlie Mac will not turn the tide for Boston, whose depth is akin to a team that sold off assets ahead of the trade deadline. David Pastrnak is now comparable to Ilya Kovalchuk on the Atlanta Thrashers: a player capable of 50 goals and a 100-point pace regardless of his teammates, but playing for a team that dwells in the basement.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
The Atlantic Division has some teams on the rise, while the Metro feels comprised of four teams with high chances of making the playoffs and four that provide points for the stronger teams – barring one exception.
The Hurricanes are aligned with the Oilers and Golden Knights as frontrunners to make the playoffs on ESPN BET, highlighting both the relative strengths of the Metro and Pacific divisions and the quality of these particular teams. Last year, I incorrectly predicted that the Hurricanes would miss the playoffs. Picking them to win the Metro and the Eastern Conference is not an apology, but a tacit acknowledgement that Carolina benefits from experienced players blending with youthful stars, all within the NHL’s most effective coaching system.
It has been an interesting journey for GM Eric Tulsky. He acquired Jake Guentzel at the 2024 trade deadline, only to bow out in the second round and observe his move to Tampa Bay. Continuing his search for a playoff-scoring solution, last season, Tulsky landed Taylor Hall from Chicago and Mikko Rantanen from Colorado in exchange for Martin Necas, yet Rantanen was traded after just 13 games as he did not commit to a long-term stay in Raleigh.
That transaction brought Logan Stankoven, a remarkable 22-year-old forward, and selections from Dallas to Carolina. Following a search for free-agent, top-line left-wing support, the Hurricanes signed Nikolaj Elhers from the Jets, a winger skilled at driving play, though with some injury history. The funds unspent on Rantanen were diverted to Ehlers and defenseman K’Andre Miller, acquired from the Rangers via Dallas’s first-round picks. He bolsters an already deep defensive group highlighted by Alexander Nikishin, among the NHL’s top rookies.
The Canes have potential vulnerabilities, starting with second-line center. Jesperi Kotkaniemi has failed to impress. Stankoven is playing there currently, and Seth Jarvis might also be trialed in that role. Tulsky might look to leverage cap space and draft picks to strengthen the team before the trade deadline. This also extends to goaltending, where Frederik Andersen remains effective, but often injured, and Pyotr Kochetkov appears to be a downgrade.
Rod Brind’Amour has coached the Hurricanes to a .604 or better points percentage in six of his seven seasons as head coach. They have made the conference finals three times, without progressing to the Stanley Cup Final. The Canes are ready to conquer this barrier with a tenacious, talented group that can still improve.
Are the Devils holding resources for a potential move for Quinn Hughes? If there is a chance of Vancouver trading him to allow him to “play with his brothers” before his 2027 unrestricted free agency, they should be interested. However, the Devils have opted to refine the roster rather than pursue major changes, likely because they rate their current assets and wish to see a healthy Jack Hughes leading the team.
Before Hughes’ injury on March 2, they were 33-23-6 with him on the ice, providing a cushion which enabled them to make the playoffs despite suffering 12 defeats in their final 21 matches. Over the last four seasons, he has contributed over 3.2 points per 60 minutes. Hughes is central to the Devils, from being their offensive spearhead to being the rationale for investing $63 million in a 22-year-old defenseman. If Luke Hughes is content, Jack is likely to be also.
New Jersey has a blue line packed with talent and Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen in goal, who elevated their team save percentage from 30th to 11th. GM Tom Fitzgerald has added Connor Brown, formerly of the Oilers, and appointed Cody Glass as the third-line center to commence the season. The Devils are poised to make an impact this season through improving the bottom six and avoiding injuries. Alternatively, they can try to acquire Quinn.
The Capitals are unsure of what the future holds for Alex Ovechkin, aged 40, who has established himself as the NHL’s leading scorer of all time with 897 goals and is in the final year of his contract. Yet Capitals coach Spencer Carbery told ESPN’s “The Drop” that he is relieved that there is no Ovechkin storyline affecting the team every game, with “Ovi’s last season” replacing The Great Chase.
“Definitely. If that was the case, then in every venue, particularly in the West, it would be the last time he plays in those arenas,” he commented.
The Capitals are free to focus on repeating their incredible 111-point effort from last season, which saw them reach the second round of the playoffs. GM Chris Patrick had a successful offseason, securing the likes of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, and Logan Thompson. Given the possibility of continued development, and progress in young players such as Aliaksei Protas and Ryan Leonard, they will keep Ovechkin competitive in what might be his concluding NHL season.
The Rangers were inconsistent last season, a consequence of regime change. GM Chris Drury took a strong approach with veterans protected by trade clauses, leading to Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider heading to Anaheim. Former Ranger J.T. Miller returned from Vancouver to say, “I’m the captain now.” Coach Peter Laviolette was dismissed because of the Rangers’ drop from the conference finals and being eliminated before the postseason. Mike Sullivan, another former Ranger (as assistant coach from 2009 to 2013), escaped the rebuilding Penguins to take his place.
The Rangers have the required talent to surmount significant lineup deficiencies and make the playoffs. Miller’s introduction helped rescue Mika Zibanejad from a nightmarish season. Will Cuylle is a promising star who will assume most of what Kreider brought to the lineup. Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin, and Vincent Trocheck form a dependable line – and Panarin is in a contract year.
The Rangers must see Adam Fox recapture his Norris Trophy form, and the recruitment of Vladislav Gavrikov should help. Assuming that Igor Shesterkin recovers with an enhanced structure ahead of him – with 21.6 goals saved above expected – the Rangers are predicted to be the fourth Metro playoff team, at minimum.
Few situations are more inspiring than the performance of the Blue Jackets last season, who missed a playoff spot by two points, managing to play through profound challenges. I admire what they are creating in Columbus, and a wild-card entry is a possibility.
Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko might make significant strides surrounded by a stronger supporting cast – the Charlie Coyle addition is shrewd. Denton Mateychuk might have a breakout season on a blue line that needs added skill. But the season will be defined by 24-year-old Jet Greaves, and his ability to seize the crease from Elvis Merzlikins. Change is needed in goal.
Relaxed dress code requirements and the easing of facial hair restrictions could lead to the Islanders’ dressing room resembling a music festival. This organization is due for an infusion of personality, which may be brought by 18-year-old Matthew Schaefer. The number 1 pick is energetic and charismatic. Much of the roster is unchanged from the team Lamoriello built, which achieved 82 points last season. A full season with Mathew Barzal will contribute somewhat, but not too much.
The playoff chances of the Penguins are questionable, as the roster is a random mix supporting six veterans stuck in purgatory under new head coach Dan Muse. The key discussion point for this team is what happens to the veterans by the trade deadline, especially Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Those around Sid want him to depart, join a Stanley Cup contender, and perform in the postseason. Yet he has committed to Pittsburgh as a limited version of the Capitals’ approach with Ovechkin. I am optimistic that he will reconsider. I believe Malkin will leave this season, particularly given his apparent interest in Brad Marchand’s fun last season with the Florida Panthers, close to one of Malkin’s homes in Miami, and lacking a veteran number 1 center.
The best outcome for the Flyers this season is the continued growth of their young players as new coach Rick Tocchet focuses on the fundamentals. They will be difficult to beat and fun to observe, particularly how Trevor Zegras and Matvei Michkov are used. The Flyers are unlikely to garner headlines in Philadelphia this season.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Utah Mammoth
Winnipeg Jets
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
The fundamental justification for forecasting a Stanley Cup victory for the Avalanche is that they possess the essential elements for a championship team. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar rank as top-five NHL players, and both would rank number one barring Connor McDavid. The Avs acquired Brock Nelson as their second-line center after searching for a replacement for Nazem Kadri. Mackenzie Blackwood is a goalie capable of not costing them a series.
(The validity of that assessment remains in question.)
Can Martin Necas contribute 75% of Mikko Rantanen’s output, as hoped when the star winger was traded last season? Can Samuel Girard and Josh Manson form a steady second pairing behind the outstanding Makar and Devon Toews? Can Gabriel Landeskog, one of last season’s positive stories, become his former self again?
I anticipate these outcomes. I trust an aggressive front office to bolster the lineup ahead of the postseason through either incremental additions or a larger move. As an aside, Nathan MacKinnon grew up in Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia. This detail might have broader significance for other NHL transactions…
Since their Stanley Cup victory in 2022, the Avalanche have been eliminated in the first round by Seattle, the second round by Dallas, and the first round again by Dallas. MacKinnon was shocked and confused by the latest seven-game defeat to the Stars. Such emotions are positive for Avalanche fans. Disgust powered MacKinnon’s first Cup win, and his motivation is almost fully renewed.
The initial question to consider regarding the Stars is whether their three consecutive Western Conference finals appearances came about because of coach Pete DeBoer, or due to the team itself. It will become evident, now that DeBoer is elsewhere, as Glen Gulutzan, an Oilers assistant who previously coached the Stars from 2011 to 2013, takes control.
The Stars remain in the optimal position for an NHL team: experienced veterans, exceptional young players, and a franchise goalie. Last season they welcomed Mikko Rantanen, whose postseason contributions are clear.
Dallas has scope to improve. Teams are attempting to determine what happened to Wyatt Johnston in the 2025 playoffs, as he only scored four goals in 18 matches. Matt Duchene might regress. They will be required to compensate for the absence of Mikael Granlund, Mason Marchment, and Evgenii Dadonov. Young players, such as Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel, and Mavrik Bourque, must progress.
In summary, the Dallas Stars can win the Stanley Cup this season if the team chemistry is correct. The hope is that DeBoer’s departure does not impact their chance of winning, and the group is remembered for more than failing to win the championship.
The Mammoth will reach the playoffs. I believe that the core they have constructed – Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Logan Cooley – could be an elite trio capable of propelling a team to the postseason. Keller and Nick Schmaltz anchor one line. Cooley, looking increasingly similar to Jack Hughes, centers a line featuring Guenther and JJ Peterka, who was acquired during the offseason from the Buffalo Sabres.
The forward options after that point are less impressive, containing role players rather than impact players. However, that may be enough. The Mammoth need their top two lines to be the driving force behind their efforts.
Joining from the Panthers is Nate Schmidt, who will complement a Mammoth defensive unit that was frequently injured last season. A full season with Sean Durzi and John Marino is important for Utah. I am keen to see rookie Maveric Lamoureux, a 6-foot-6 defender, demonstrate his talent. Hopefully, Karel Vejmelka will perform strongly again with Vitek Vanecek as backup. If the defense holds up, then Stanley Cup playoff hockey could be coming to Salt Lake City.
The Wild, Blues, and Jets might contend for wild-card spots, with one team from the Pacific Division also in contention. The Central has twice had five teams make the playoffs in the last four seasons.
The Jets are the strongest of these three teams, and my pick to make the playoffs due to Connor Hellebuyck, who was named the Hart and Vezina Trophy winner last season. His ambition for an Olympic medal adds to the physical and mental strain, but he will feature in 60 games and should be the league’s leading goalie. He can will the team into the postseason.
He will need to be because the team has been weakened following the departure of Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency. The Jets finished 20th in 5-on-5 scoring chances last season and 13th in expected goals. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele accounted for 80 goals last season. Without Ehlers, they need sustained support from Gabriel Vilardi, and from Cole Perfetti. What Jonathan Toews can contribute is unknown.
The defensive unit will ensure that they can make the playoffs. However, their 116-point season will not be repeated.
The Blues were close to defeating the Jets in Game 7 of the first round before losing in double overtime, and I then realized the irony for Jordan Binnington after the 4 Nations Face-Off.
I admire elements of the Blues, primarily coach Jim Montgomery. They recorded 35 wins in 60 games after he replaced Drew Bannister. He focused on defense, and the Blues were fourth in goals conceded per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Jimmy Snuggerud will be a good rookie and will offer support behind Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. The top three defensemen might be aging, but Colton Parayko played well and the team improved when GM Doug Armstrong signed Cam Fowler from the Ducks.
I have St. Louis on the edge of playoff contention. A playoff spot or narrowly missing out would not be a shock. In addition, they could finish second in the division. Yet Montgomery’s teams can be poor offensively without star players – see David Pastrnak during his time with the Bruins. The Blues do not have that type of player, and they ended up 27th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season at 5-on-5. I think they will miss out.
The Wild are paying Kirill Kaprizov to stay with them until 2034. At some point in that period, the Wild will build a Stanley Cup contender around him. Brock Faber and Zeev Buium could be defensive anchors, and Jesper Wallstedt the franchise goalie. Matt Boldy, Danila Yurov, and Marco Rossi may support him in attack.
This could be a transitional year for the Wild. Their offensive depth beyond Kaprizov looks questionable, given that he was restricted to 41 games last season. Without him, the Wild were poor offensively, and the expected goals percentage ranked 29th. Consequently, they finished minus-11 in goal differential last season, second worst among all playoff teams.
