The renowned Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, with a purse of $300,000, a key event in North American year-end horse racing, has attracted a lineup of 10 contenders for its 2025 running, now scheduled for Sunday, December 28 at Santa Anita Park. This celebrated competition has seen champions like Mizzen Mast, Twirling Candy, Shared Belief, Flightline, and numerous other notable horses claim victory. Bob Baffert is the trainer for five of the ten participants entered.
Below is an overview of the contenders, beginning with the innermost (rail) gate. Modus Bestia secured the rail post for trainer Richard Baltas and is in peak condition, having triumphed in his last two races on Del Mar’s dirt course. Spenard arrives from Turf Paradise and will be ridden by experienced jockey Tyler Baze. This Spun to Run offspring will be competing at Santa Anita for the first time and also making his initial attempt at the Malibu’s seven-furlong distance. Madaket Road is set for his seventh successive graded stakes entry under Bob Baffert’s guidance, with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the reins for the first time since their second-place finish in the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP during the Kentucky Derby festivities at Churchill Downs. Speedy Wilson is quite familiar with victory, having achieved four wins from eight lifetime races and an unblemished 3-for-3 record at seven furlongs; his usual jockey, Armando Ayuso, will remain aboard. Midland Money achieved a six-length win in his maiden race at Santa Anita in June 2024, reappeared over a year later at Saratoga to win coming off a long break, and now enters after two successive second-place finishes at the allowance optional claiming tier. Berlin Wall is fresh off a 7 ¾-length win in his most recent outing at Del Mar and has secured a top-three finish in all four of his Santa Anita career starts. Trainer Karen Headley is fielding Smooth Cruisein for his sixth career graded stakes appearance, with Kyle Frey, his customary rider, in the saddle. Cornucopian, the least experienced runner in the Malibu lineup, will be racing for the first time since April 27 for trainer Baffert. The horse, purchased for $1.1 million as a yearling, will have Flavien Prat riding for the first occasion. Barnes, a $3.2 million yearling acquisition named in honor of Bob Baffert’s longtime associate Jimmy Barnes, will be making his return to the track since his impressive 8 ¼-length victory in the Perryville Stakes at Keeneland in October. Goal Oriented completes the field and represents Baffert’s five entries. He will be returning to Santa Anita for the first time since his 3 ¼-length maiden win, which also marked his last race at a sprint length.
Assessment and Key Participants:
Considering his dominant performance in the Perryville Stakes, the capabilities of Barnes are undeniable, especially over the Malibu’s seven-furlong course. This Into Mischief colt has been highly anticipated since the beginning. Barnes initiated his racing career in November 2024 at Churchill Downs with a slim victory in a maiden special weight event, then transferred to Santa Anita, where he powered to a 5 ½-length triumph in the San Vicente Stakes, clocking seven furlongs on the dirt in 1:22.15 in January of the current year. Subsequent to that remarkable display, Barnes has competed in five consecutive graded stakes races. He debuted in a route distance in the San Felipe Stakes in March, leading for much of the race before being overtaken late by Journalism, who would go on to win the Preakness Stakes and place second in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. He then extended to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby, where he delivered a disappointing fifth-place finish, once more trailing Journalism. Following a short recuperation, Barnes reappeared 3 ½ months later at his favored seven-furlong distance in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga in August, securing a determined third place, just 1 ½ lengths behind Patch Adams and Captain Cook. In September, he had a slow break in the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx Racing and, despite a strong closing surge, finished fourth by 3 ¾ lengths while shortening to six furlongs. In his most recent outing, Barnes returned to seven furlongs in the Perryville and delivered a cohesive performance, achieving a 105 Equibase Speed Figure for his decisive win. Jose Ortiz rode him in both the H. Allen Jerkens and the Perryville, a significant advantage given their evident partnership. Since that race, Barnes has demonstrated keen training, notably with a swift six-furlong bullet workout in 1:12.80 at Santa Anita on December 20. He fulfills several key criteria here: returning to Santa Anita, where he claimed the San Vicente, and competing again at seven furlongs, where he boasts a record of 2-0-1 from three starts. Given his 3-1 morning-line odds, Barnes presents good value despite the considerable interest he is expected to generate.
Midland Money introduces considerable interest into the Malibu, having achieved two victories and two second-place finishes in five outings, and will now wear blinkers after competing without them in his last two starts for Bob Baffert. Midland Money commenced his racing career in a dirt sprint maiden special weight event in June 2024 at Santa Anita, proving superior by pulling away to a six-length win. After that striking debut, he was inactive for over a year before reappearing in August of the current year, returning in excellent condition with a 3 ¼-length allowance win at Saratoga, securing a 103 Equibase Speed Figure following his extensive layoff. Only 20 days later, Midland Money entered his first graded stakes race, the previously mentioned H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes, where he finished sixth. Since then, he has secured two second-place positions at the allowance optional claiming level at Del Mar and Santa Anita, achieving a 107 Equibase figure in both runs. Even though he didn’t reach the winner’s circle last time, Midland Money surged from the rear, closing strongly with each stride but ultimately falling just short in the 6 ½-furlong contest. The additional half-furlong on Saturday in the Malibu, paired with the reintroduction of blinkers, might be precisely what this Shancelot colt requires. Midland Money also holds the top position in late pace rating with an impressive 126.0, while also heading the field in average speed with a 103 Equibase figure and an average class of 106. Jockey Juan Hernandez has partnered with Midland Money for one victory (his initial race) and two runner-up finishes. Possessing adaptability in tactics and potent finishing speed, he is certainly capable of delivering an unexpected strong showing on Sunday.
Cornucopian will be participating in only his fourth career race to conclude his 3-year-old season under trainer Bob Baffert, and remarkably, will be making his first appearance at Santa Anita in the Malibu. He achieved his highest career Equibase Speed Figure of 108 when decisively winning a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park in his inaugural start in February. A month thereafter, Cornucopian extended his distance to 1 1/8 miles for the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, where he engaged in a demanding pace battle and subsequently faded to fourth. After the Arkansas Derby, Cornucopian was transported to Aqueduct and raced at a reduced distance of one mile in an allowance optional claiming event where he stalked the pace, grew fatigued, but still managed to hold second as the overwhelming favorite. Cornucopian enters the Malibu after an eight-month absence and has been training vigorously at Santa Anita in preparation for this race. Bob Baffert has shown proficiency in graded stakes races with horses returning from breaks exceeding 180 days, achieving a 25% win rate over the past three years and an impressive 69% in-the-money finish from 16 starts. Flavien Prat will be riding for the first time, which is a considerable advantage given that Prat and Baffert have collaboratively won 42% of their races over the last year, securing 11 victories from 26 starts and 81% top-three finishes. An additional notable aspect is that his blinkers will be removed on Saturday, a first in his career. Baffert has demonstrated great success with this particular change in graded stakes races, boasting a 37% win rate over the past three years, totaling seven wins from 19 starts and 63% top-three finishes. While triumphing in the Malibu after a lengthy layoff poses a significant hurdle, Cornucopian seems well-prepared to display his talent and make a strong impression on Sunday.
The remaining participants, along with their peak Equibase Speed Figures from comparable events, include Modus Bestia (109), Spenard (98), Madaket Road (109), Speedy Wilson (105), Berlin Wall (103), Smooth Cruisein (104), and Goal Oriented (110).
Likely Winners by Ranking:
Barnes
Midland Money
Cornucopian
