Barnwell: NFC West & AFC South Three-Team Division Races.

The present 2025 campaign distinctly echoes the spirit of balanced competition within the National Football League. As Week 13 unfolds, astonishingly, just a pair of teams have breached the ten-win threshold: the Broncos, currently at 10-2 after narrowly defeating the Commanders in Sunday night’s contest, and the Patriots, also at 10-2, poised to face off against the Giants on “Monday Night Football.” Despite the inevitable presence of struggling teams, this season stands out for the vulnerabilities exposed even among franchises with Super Bowl ambitions.

The benefit of a league without a dominant hierarchy is the heightened competitiveness among numerous teams vying for divisional supremacy. In contrast, at this juncture last year, it appeared as though three AFC divisions and one NFC division were all but decided, with only seven AFC teams holding a winning record, all of which ultimately advanced to the postseason.

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This season? The possibility of every division remaining contested is very real. The most substantial divisional advantage with just five weeks remaining is a mere two games (held by the Broncos in the AFC West and the Patriots in the AFC East). Teams such as the Chiefs and Lions — considered leading Super Bowl contenders before the season began — find themselves on the fringes of the playoff picture. With so much yet to be determined as we transition into December, anticipate exhilarating playoff races as the season draws to a close.

Here’s an exploration of the tightest races and the impact of Week 13 on the upcoming weeks. This will cover the two closest contests in both the NFC and AFC. Starting in the NFC West, where a team that initially appeared poised to secure the division title has been drawn back into a three-way battle for both the division crown and a coveted first-round bye. (Divisional win probabilities for each team are sourced from ESPN’s Football Power Index, or FPI.)

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NFC West | NFC South
AFC South | AFC North

NFC West

Week 13: Defeated 31-28 by the Panthers
FPI chances to win the division: 47.7%

The presumption was that the Rams would represent a reliable force. Within a league marked by unpredictability, the Rams had emerged as the most dependable team. Their only two losses had come against the Eagles and 49ers, contests decided by late-game heroics from two teams likely playoff bound. Matthew Stafford, surprisingly at 37, had seemingly rediscovered an unparalleled form, and following their dominant victory over the Bucs in prime time, the veteran quarterback was established as the frontrunner to secure his inaugural MVP accolade.

Early indications suggested that the game was unfolding as expected on Sunday. Stafford capitalized on favorable field position, delivering what seemed like his umpteenth touchdown of the campaign to Davante Adams, propelling Stafford to surpass Tom Brady’s record of 27 consecutive games with a touchdown pass without throwing an interception, reaching a new benchmark of 28. While the Panthers countered with a touchdown of their own, with the Rams progressing into the red zone, it appeared inevitable that Stafford and the offensive unit would engage in a scoring duel that Carolina couldn’t possibly maintain.

Reality soon intervened. A tipped pass resulted in Stafford’s interception, ending the streak. Coupled with a subsequent errant pass that Mike Jackson returned for a pick-six, granting the Panthers a 14-7 advantage. Though the Rams responded to regain a 21-17 halftime lead, the defining moment of the game unfolded later. Positioned for a potential game-tying field goal, Carolina’s formidable defensive tackle pairing exerted their influence. Tershawn Wharton bypassed Rams guard Kevin Dotson, applying pressure, while Derrick Brown delivered a decisive strip-sack from behind, marking the Panthers’ third takeaway of the day. Capitalizing on the Rams’ expended timeouts, Bryce Young converted a third down, sealing the Panthers’ 31-28 victory.

It may be tempting to view the loss as an aberration. Stafford threw as many interceptions on Sunday as he had all season. The Panthers were successful on all three of their fourth-down attempts, converting two into long touchdown passes. Such occurrences may not be replicated every week, and when the Rams can avoid unforced errors, they should prevail as the superior team.

However, this game underscored the challenges facing the Rams in their pursuit of another Super Bowl appearance. While Stafford has performed admirably this season, several near-interceptions and dropped picks contributed to the preservation of his streak. He targets tightly covered receivers at one of the highest rates in the league, sometimes neglecting to even look at the intended target of his pass.

While a reflection of his talent and the confidence he places in his receivers, it inevitably elevates the risk of turnovers. Stafford’s 1.5% interception rate in 2024 was the best of his career, and he sat at 0.5% in 2025 before Sunday. During the Super Bowl run of his first season with the Rams, Stafford actually threw a league-leading 17 interceptions, with a 2.8% interception rate. Expecting him to go months between interceptions is unrealistic.

The cornerback position remains the area of weakness for the Rams’ defense. The defensive line has done a great job of masking those issues, and defensive coordinator Chris Shula does a great job disguising coverages and muddying up the picture for opposing quarterbacks. But the losses the Rams have had typically involve teams attacking their CBs and creating big plays.

Sunday represented a challenging outing for Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who has shown signs of progress since his brief benching during Week 5 against the 49ers. Although Forbes didn’t commit glaring mistakes, he struggled against the Panthers’ larger, more physical receiving corps. Carolina’s decisive fourth-down conversions targeted the 173-pound Forbes.

Firstly, on a fourth-and-3 situation in the third quarter, Jalen Coker evaded Forbes’ coverage at the line, outmaneuvering the cornerback to secure a 33-yard touchdown reception from Young. Subsequently, on a fourth-and-2 play with the Rams employing a Cover 3 scheme, rookie Tetairoa McMillan disengaged from Forbes while the ball was in flight, creating separation and outrunning the cornerback on a crossing route for a 43-yard touchdown.

In the game’s critical moments, Young effectively sealed the victory by connecting with Coker for a quick 10-yard completion over the middle of the field, with no Rams defender positioned to obstruct the throwing lane. In Sunday’s game, Young completed 9 of 11 passes for 122 yards, with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap. When quarterbacks swiftly release the ball within 2.5 seconds against the Rams, the opposing QBR ranks only 15th in the league. However, this ranking improves to fourth-best for the Rams when they can pressure quarterbacks to hold the ball, allowing the pass rush to penetrate the pocket.

Los Angeles still retains its divisional lead due to a tiebreaking victory over the Seahawks, but the coming weeks may present a more challenging landscape. The Rams still have a home-and-home series to come with the Cardinals, but their next game against the Seahawks is in Seattle. The 49ers split with the Rams, but at 4-1, they’re likely to finish with the best intradivision record of the three contenders. And in the race for the top seed, the Rams are only 4-3 in the NFC, well behind the likes of the Bears (6-2 within the conference), Eagles (7-3) and 49ers (8-2).

The Rams will likely need the best record in the conference outright to ensure a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason — a spot they ceded to the Bears after Sunday’s loss.

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Week 13: Secured a 26-0 victory over the Vikings
FPI chances to win the division: 25.1%

Sunday’s outcome likely revealed more regarding the performance of rookie quarterback Max Brosmer and the Vikings than it did about the Seahawks, who capitalized on a player ill-equipped to compete. The Seahawks managed a single touchdown on offense, stemming from a 32-yard drive initiated by one of Minnesota’s five turnovers on the day. Star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a quiet day, recording just two receptions for 24 yards, but it did not even remotely matter.

The strength of the Seahawks’ defense was already well-established, and Brosmer’s struggles significantly contributed to the final result. The defense put on one of the best performances from any team this year. The Vikings averaged minus-0.79 EPA per play on offense, a mark which ranks third-worst this season by any team. My benchmark for a hopeless offense goes back to 2020, when the Broncos lost all of their quarterbacks to COVID-19 regulations and started wide receiver Kendall Hinton under center against a great Saints team. On that day, the Broncos averaged minus-0.80 EPA per play.

The challenge for the Seahawks, as evidenced in recent weeks, lies in maintaining momentum when their defense fails to provide turnovers and limits the opposing offense. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions against the Rams in a heartbreaking fashion, but even in games the Seahawks have dominated, he has flirted with disaster.

Darnold threw a pick that set up the game-winning score against Tampa Bay. He was strip-sacked for a touchdown against the Texans, turned the ball over three times against the Cardinals and fumbled twice against the Vikings on Sunday, losing one. It doesn’t help when the offensive line lets Dallas Turner through completely free for a quick pressure, but Darnold has to mitigate his mistakes. Taking a sack is frustrating, but it’s much better to take a sack and hold onto the football than it is to fumble or throw a pick.

The Seattle running game is also struggling to maintain consistency. The Seahawks currently rank 22nd in the NFL in success rate and 24th in EPA per play on designed rushes this season, with their backfield, headlined by Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, struggling for explosiveness. Their 27 carries against the Vikings produced 108 yards and a score, but the two backs mustered only a 41% success rate.

The Seahawks coaching staff doesn’t appear to have a clear plan for the running back position. Walker seemed to be on a roll, prompting suggestions from the coaching staff that he deserved more carries, but on Sunday, Charbonnet had one more carry than his teammate and the 17-yard touchdown. Playing the hot hand is fine if the running game is working, but that hasn’t really been the case for the Seahawks this season, which places more pressure on Darnold in games where the defense isn’t dominating.

The Seahawks face another matchup against a backup quarterback in Kirk Cousins next week, but the schedule becomes more challenging thereafter. They wrap up their home games with the Colts and that crucial rematch against the Rams before playing the Panthers and 49ers on the road to conclude the season. The Seahawks essentially need to defeat the Rams and Niners if they hope to capture the NFC West title, and with five games left, Seattle controls its own destiny in the division.

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Week 13: Secured a 26-8 victory over the Browns
FPI chances to win the division: 27.2%

Similarly, I remain uncertain if Sunday’s triumph over a Browns team featuring a third-string quarterback, Shedeur Sanders, will provide substantial insights into the 49ers’ capabilities against more formidable competition in the NFC. The biggest news coming out of the game was Jauan Jennings trash-talking, to the astonishment of Browns players, while an injured Maliek Collins was about to be carted off the field.

The quiet outing might have provided a welcome respite for Brock Purdy, who threw three interceptions in an ugly win over the Panthers last Monday. Purdy completed 16 of 29 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown pass against an excellent Browns defense. While he looked erratic against the Panthers, Total QBR has generally liked his work this season, as the fourth-year quarterback’s 68.0 QBR would be sixth best in the league if he had enough pass attempts to qualify for the leaderboard. Mac Jones, who hasn’t been quite as aggressive as his teammate, is down in 10th at 64.8.

In Sunday’s game against the Browns, the 49ers once again struggled to establish their running game. Christian McCaffrey’s 20 carries yielded just 53 yards, and while the Browns are stout against the run, this has been a recurring issue for Kyle Shanahan’s team this year. The 49ers rank 15th in success rate on designed rushes. In 2023, when a McCaffrey-led run game helped the 49ers to the Super Bowl, they were third by that measure.

One of the excuses for the run game — and other issues throughout the lineup — has been injuries. McCaffrey has been healthy, but elite blocking tight end George Kittle was injured earlier in the season. Purdy’s absence made the passing attack less vertical. Dominick Puni, a revelation at guard as a rookie, wasn’t the same in the first half as he played through a knee injury. Maybe the rush attack wasn’t going to get right until the right players were all on the field together.

Well, the only starters missing on Sunday were wideout Brandon Aiyuk (who might never play for the 49ers again given the team’s feelings toward him) and rookie guard Connor Colby (who struggled when he was in the lineup), and the 49ers still couldn’t move the ball on the ground. Naturally, the 49ers lost guys along the way: Kyle Juszczyk was in and out of the game with a rib injury, while Ben Bartch wasn’t able to play in the fourth quarter after suffering a foot injury. But this was the closest they’ve come to a healthy run game, and it didn’t really land.

Likewise, injuries have sapped what could have been a fine pass rush. Nick Bosa has been out since Week 3 with a torn ACL, and since then, the 49ers rank last in the NFL in sack rate (2.9%) and 31st in pressure rate (23.4%). It was one thing to lose Bosa, but the 49ers also lost Bryce Huff for a stretch with a hamstring injury, while first-round rookie Mykel Williams had his season ended by a torn ACL. Yetur Gross-Matos has also been on injured reserve since Week 6. And while he’s not primarily a pass rusher, the 49ers have naturally felt the loss of star linebacker Fred Warner (ankle).

And yet, somehow, the 49ers keep winning. Other players have stepped up. On Sunday, it was former Raiders first-round pick Clelin Ferrell, who sacked Sanders twice. Their kicking game was excellent with Eddy Pineiro before the journeyman suffered a hamstring injury, but against the Browns, their special teams was instead buoyed by a 66-yard punt return from Skyy Moore, which set up a short field and a 49ers touchdown. The Niners lead the league in win probability added on special teams this season (1.4 wins), a more subtle factor that has helped them claim victories.

They’re the clear outsiders in this three-team race because of injuries, but having split with the Rams and beaten the Seahawks in Week 1, the Niners are in reasonably good shape if they keep winning. A much-needed bye awaits them next week, and three of their final four games are at home. The Titans shouldn’t offer much resistance, and a road trip to play the fading Colts might not be as tough as it seemed earlier this season. But the Niners finish with the NFC-leading Bears and a home rematch with the Seahawks. A win over the Titans and one victory over their final three games should get the 49ers back into the postseason. If they want to claim the division or even the top seed in the conference, well, they’ll probably need to win out.

NFC South

Week 13: Claimed a 20-17 victory over the Cardinals
FPI chances to win the division: 79.2%

Sunday’s victory against the Cardinals brought an end to what was a discouraging three-game skid for Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay. The Bucs had lost four of their ensuing five games since defeating the 49ers to advance to 5-1, albeit against opponents with a combined record of 34-13. Sunday marked a turning point for the Buccaneers. After facing the league’s eighth-toughest schedule through Week 12, they are projected to encounter the league’s second-easiest schedule from Week 13 onward.

The Cardinals are better than their record, but this wasn’t the sort of decisive win to make people believe that Tampa’s about to stomp through inferior competition. The Bucs can be their own worst enemy at times, and they were at moments on Sunday, including a drive where two potential touchdowns were called back by penalties. That possession thankfully ended in a score when Mayfield hit star tackle Tristan Wirfs with a touchdown pass, but the Bucs missed out on a touchdown earlier in the game when Chris Godwin Jr. dropped a would-be score in the end zone.

Injuries have blighted the ceiling for the Bucs offense all season. Wirfs (knee) was out early in the season, as was fellow tackle Luke Goedeke (foot). Bucky Irving was out for two months with foot and shoulder issues, while Mike Evans (collarbone) has been limited to just 177 snaps. Godwin, returning from his fractured ankle, played two games before going back to the inactive list with a fibula injury and didn’t make much of an impact after returning last week against the Rams.

As was the case for the 49ers, Sunday was the healthiest the Bucs have been in quite a while, and the results were mixed. Both tackles have been back for a few weeks, and while Wirfs didn’t seem quite like his All-Pro self immediately after returning to the lineup, he has rounded back into form. Irving made his return after missing significant action, and Godwin was on the field for meaningful plays, although he’s still playing only about 63% of the offensive snaps.

It wasn’t a great day for the offense, but the returning players made their presence felt. Irving turned 17 carries into only 61 yards, but the second-year back did score from 13 yards out and had a second touchdown called back via penalty. Godwin had his best game of the season, with three catches for 78 yards, though he left a would-be score on the field with a drop.

It’s difficult to make sense of the Bucs’ offense, in part because injuries force the pieces to change so often. There are weeks where it looks excellent running the football and others where it can’t sustain the run whatsoever. Mayfield will look great in a two-minute drill and even win a shootout with Darnold against a great Seahawks defense, and then struggle to move the ball for entire games. Getting the offensive line set and having healthy versions of Irving and Godwin in the lineup regularly from here on out would offer the offense some much-needed personnel stability — and with it, perhaps more consistency.

My concern for the Bucs is really on the defensive side of the ball, though, and it comes with how Todd Bowles plays defense. He is one of the most creative blitz designers in football, and the Bucs have built their roster to play into Bowles’ approach. Tampa Bay has a deep secondary with players who can make an impact around the line of scrimmage, creating plausible deniability about who’s going to blitz and who’s going to drop into coverage. Nobody in the league is more comfortable dropping multiple defensive linemen into shallow zones or even having them run with receivers than Bowles.

But Tampa’s blitzes just haven’t been as effective as usual this season. The Bucs are fifth in the NFL in blitz rate, but they’re 16th in QBR allowed on those plays. They are fifth in pressure rate when they send extra men, but they’re 25th in sack rate and 29th in pressure-to-sack rate with those blitzes. Quarterbacks are averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 7.3 yards per dropback against Bowles’ blitzes, both of which rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL.

With Haason Reddick and Calijah Kancey both out, Bowles has had no choice but to lean into sending extra pressure. (Reddick returned on Sunday after missing the prior four games.) The secondary behind those blitzes hasn’t been consistent. Jacob Parrish has been promising as a rookie, but second-round pick