As noted at the outset of this week’s Power Rankings, the Milwaukee Brewers are exhibiting dominance over the current baseball landscape. Their performance is remarkable. It’s akin to a player selecting an easier game setting on a console merely to ascertain if a flawless, undefeated season is achievable. Their record stands at 27-4 since July 5 and 51-16 since May 24. They achieved an 11-game winning streak following that July 5 defeat, though that’s not their longest winning stretch since that date.
The Brewers, propelled by their ongoing 12-game winning streak that continued Wednesday night against the Pirates, now possess the league’s best record with a 6 ½ game lead. Considering this, along with the significant challenges faced by every other major contender this season — most of which are recent — it might be logical to assume the Brewers are the clear frontrunners to clinch the World Series.
However, that’s not the case.
The current top five teams favored to win it all, according to FanDuel:
It’s crucial to understand that these odds are not predictions but primarily reflect the betting trends. Essentially, bookmakers believe that the majority of bettors are inclined to wager on the Dodgers and then the Phillies to secure the World Series title. These teams have greater visibility and larger fan bases compared to the Brewers, and have experienced numerous recent, extended playoff appearances.
It’s also possible that there’s an underlying sentiment of disbelief in the Brewers’ sustained success among the general audience.
Does this assessment hold true?
Let’s analyze the Brewers’ roster and potential playoff composition. Can they reach the NLCS for the first time since 2018? Can they compete in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1982? Can they secure their inaugural World Series championship?
Let’s examine each element of the team. In short, I currently observe no apparent vulnerabilities.
Offense
Examining the Brewers’ overall offensive statistics for the season might lead one to believe that their slugging ability is average. This raises a concern that in the playoffs — when facing stronger pitching and defensive opponents — it’s significantly harder to chain hits together. There’s precedent for this: teams that lack strong slugging tend to fall behind.
They are an evolved team compared to their season’s start. What if we assess the Brewers’ offensive output solely from their period of elevated performance? They rank second in MLB in slugging percentage since May 24, just behind the Blue Jays, who also experienced a similar surge around that time, though not as pronounced as the Brewers.
Since that period when the Brewers transformed into a high-performing version, Andrew Vaughn has posted a .340 batting average with a .630 slugging percentage. Isaac Collins shows promise as a potential star, boasting a .313/.409/.502 slash line. Brice Turang is performing as a considerably above-average hitter. Sal Frelick is batting .316 and has exhibited power. If concerns revolve around stars needing to shoulder the burden in the playoffs and that Vaughn and/or Collins might not be quite ready, that’s understandable. Christian Yelich has recorded .314/.383/.525 since May 24. Jackson Chourio will return soon, and he’s already displayed considerable potential. William Contreras is an All-Star catcher currently on a hot streak, hitting .390/.486/.746 with six home runs and 17 RBIs in his last 15 games.
Therefore, the offense is undoubtedly strong enough to contend for the championship.
Defense
The Brewers are a strong defensive team, a fact that shouldn’t surprise anyone. They hold fourth place in MLB in defensive efficiency, representing the percentage of balls in play converted into outs. According to Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the Brewers are ranked second. They are eighth in Defensive Runs Saved and fifth in Fielding Run Value. Additionally, they are above average in fielding percentage.
We’ve seen minor defensive lapses escalate into significant collapses in the playoffs. Refer to the Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series for an example. While such an event remains a possibility even for one of the league’s best defensive teams, it’s unlikely and shouldn’t be a major concern.
Baserunning
There’s a baserunning component in WAR (BSR) that incorporates factors like advancing on bases, minimizing outs on the bases, and stolen bases. The Brewers have the highest BSR score in the majors by a notable margin (14.4 compared to 9.0 for the Cubs). They rank second in MLB in stolen bases, a metric that isn’t excessively dependent on one or two players who could slump at a crucial time. The Brewers have seven players with double-digit stolen bases this season, four of whom have at least 15. Even Contreras, the catcher, has five steals.
Rotation
The Brewers boast the second-best rotation ERA in baseball (3.36, trailing only the Rangers’ 3.31). This achievement is due to a team effort. Four pitchers have made at least 17 starts, all maintaining ERAs between 2.90 (established ace Freddy Peralta) and 3.52 (rookie Chad Patrick). Rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski has a 2.70 ERA in seven starts and appears capable of performing as an ace in a playoff setting. Veteran All-Star Brandon Woodruff, returning from major surgery, has a 2.06 ERA in seven starts. He has a career 3.18 ERA in 28 ⅓ playoff innings. Rookie Logan Henderson has recorded a 1.78 ERA in five starts.
The narrative surrounding the Brewers seems to suggest a lack of the necessary star power to succeed in the playoffs.
Doesn’t a rotation led by Peralta, Woodruff, and Misioroswki seem to have plenty of stars? The fourth spot is matchup-dependent, but the front office and manager have the luxury of choosing between veteran lefty José Quintana and 24-year-old Quinn Priester (who is 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 17 appearances).
Barring significant unforeseen events, the Brewers will have a formidable playoff rotation.
Bullpen
The Brewers are ranked 14th in baseball in bullpen ERA, but remember the season’s beginning. They faced challenges in their initial four games and remained below .500 for some time. Since May 24, Brewers relievers rank fifth in ERA. All-Star Trevor Megill appears to be a top-tier closer. Abner Uribe has a 1.97 ERA in 32 innings. Long reliever Aaron Ashby has pitched 37 ⅓ innings in 22 outings with a 2.17 ERA. Also, considering the abundance of useful starting pitchers, the Brewers only need three or four starters in the playoffs. This means the remaining pitchers can work out of the bullpen, where their performance will be enhanced due to the shorter outings.
They possess the elements of a potential shutdown playoff bullpen.
Manager
Pat Murphy currently has a 1-2 record in playoff games and is 0-1 in playoff series. The Brewers were on the verge of winning the Wild Card Series, holding a 2-0 lead into the top of the ninth in Game 3, but the Mets scored four runs against the Brewers’ bullpen. While managers sometimes face criticism in such situations, no manager would have deviated from using his closer. The outcome wasn’t Murphy’s fault.
However, he lacks positive playoff experiences to draw from. Nevertheless, I believe he’s fully capable of leading this group to a World Series victory this season. I have no reason to doubt this.
Sustainability
Herein lies the primary argument against the Brewers.
Several players appear to be performing beyond expectations. Even if they are emerging as stars, questions persist regarding players like Vaughn and Collins, and concerns linger about potential regression from players like Turang and Frelick. Bullpens are inherently unpredictable, so there’s always a chance that things could decline. Injuries could affect the rotation, and Yelich will continue to face injury risks throughout his career.
On a team level, the Brewers would likely agree that maintaining a pace of winning 27 out of 31 games is unsustainable. That 51-16 record since May 24? Extrapolating that to 162 games results in a 123-win pace.
In essence: Can they continue to play like the best team in MLB history?
No, they can’t.
However, they don’t need to. They could experience a period of regression for about three weeks and still regain their form in October to win the World Series.
My overall assessment is that while some unsustainable trends are evident, the Brewers are undervalued in the current World Series odds.
