As noted earlier in this week’s analysis, the Milwaukee Brewers are currently dominating the baseball landscape. Their performance is remarkable, resembling a player choosing an easier game setting to effortlessly achieve victory. Since July 5, they boast a 28-4 record, and a 52-16 record since May 24. Following the July 5 loss, they secured 11 consecutive wins, a streak that isn’t even their longest since that date.
The Brewers, propelled by a 13-game winning streak that continued Friday night with a victory against the Reds, now hold the best record in baseball, leading by seven games. Considering this, along with the struggles faced by other contenders this season – many occurring recently – one might assume the Brewers are favored to win the World Series.
However, that’s not the case.
The current top five teams with the best odds to win it all, according to FanDuel:
It’s important to remember that these odds are not predictions but reflect betting market trends. Essentially, betting platforms anticipate that most bettors will favor the Dodgers to win the World Series, followed by the Phillies. These teams have larger fan bases and have recently had notable playoff runs, unlike the Brewers.
There might also be an underlying sentiment of disbelief in the Brewers’ continued success.
Is this sentiment accurate?
Let’s analyze the Brewers’ roster and its prospects for the playoffs. Can they reach the NLCS for the first time since 2018? Can they participate in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1982? Can they achieve their first World Series victory?
We’ll assess each team aspect. In short, I don’t currently identify any significant weaknesses.
Offense
The Brewers’ overall offensive statistics might suggest a team with an average slugging percentage. This could raise concerns about their ability to string hits together in the playoffs against strong pitching and defensive teams. Historically, teams lacking slugging power have struggled in such situations.
However, the team has evolved since the season’s start. Examining the Brewers’ offensive performance since their hot streak began, they rank second in slugging percentage in the majors since May 24, trailing only the Blue Jays, who experienced a similar surge around the same time, though not as pronounced as the Brewers.
Since the Brewers transformed into a formidable force, reminiscent of the Terminator and Predator, Andrew Vaughn has hit .340 with a .630 slugging percentage (as of Wednesday). Isaac Collins is emerging as a promising player, with a .313/.409/.502 slash line. Brice Turang is performing as a well above-average hitter. Sal Frelick is hitting .316 and showing power potential. While concerns about star players carrying the team in the playoffs might arise, and Vaughn and Collins might not yet fit that mold, Christian Yelich has been performing well since May 24, hitting .314/.383/.525. Jackson Chourio will soon return, having already displayed signs of being a superstar. William Contreras, an All-Star catcher, is currently on a hot streak, hitting .390/.486/.746 with six home runs and 17 RBIs in his last 15 games.
In short, the offense is certainly capable of winning it all.
Defense
The Brewers are recognized as a strong defensive team, which is not surprising. As of Wednesday, they rank fourth in MLB in defensive efficiency, representing the percentage of balls in play converted into outs. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric places the Brewers in second. They rank eighth in Defensive Runs Saved and fifth in Fielding Run Value. Additionally, their fielding percentage is above average.
Minor defensive issues can escalate into significant problems during the playoffs. The Yankees’ Game 5 performance in the World Series serves as a prime example. While such a collapse is possible for even the best defensive teams, it is unlikely and should not be a major concern for the Brewers.
Baserunning
WAR includes a baserunning component (BSR) that accounts for advancing on the bases, avoiding outs, and, most notably, stolen bases. The Brewers have the highest BSR score in the majors, significantly ahead of the Cubs (14.4 compared to 9.0). They rank second in stolen bases, a metric that isn’t overly dependent on one or two players who could slump at a crucial time. The Brewers have seven players with double-digit stolen bases this season, with four having at least 15. Even catcher Contreras has five steals.
Rotation
The Brewers possess the second-best rotation ERA in baseball (3.36, behind only the Rangers’ 3.31). This success is the result of a collective effort. Four pitchers have made at least 17 starts, each with ERAs between 2.90 (established ace Freddy Peralta) and 3.52 (rookie Chad Patrick). Rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski has a 2.70 ERA in seven starts, displaying the potential to perform as an ace in a playoff setting. Veteran All-Star Brandon Woodruff, returning from major surgery, has a 2.06 ERA in seven starts, with a career 3.18 ERA in 28 ⅓ playoff innings. Rookie Logan Henderson has recorded a 1.78 ERA in five starts.
The perception of the Brewers seems to be that they lack the star power needed to succeed in the playoffs.
But doesn’t a rotation led by Peralta, Woodruff, and Misioroswki appear to have considerable star presence? The fourth spot is matchup-dependent, but choosing between veteran lefty José Quintana and 24-year-old Quinn Priester (who is 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 17 appearances) presents a positive challenge for the front office and manager.
Unless unforeseen issues arise, the Brewers are poised to have a formidable playoff rotation.
Bullpen
The Brewers’ bullpen ranks 14th in baseball in ERA, but it’s important to recall the season’s beginning. They struggled in their initial four games and remained below .500 for some time. Since May 24, Brewers relievers rank fifth in ERA. All-Star Trevor Megill appears to be a top-tier closer. Abner Uribe has a 1.97 ERA in 32 innings. Long reliever Aaron Ashby has pitched 37 ⅓ innings in 22 appearances with a 2.17 ERA. Considering the abundance of capable starting pitchers, the Brewers only require three or four starters in the playoffs. This allows the remaining starters to work from the bullpen, where their performance could be enhanced in shorter outings.
They possess the ingredients for a potentially dominant playoff bullpen.
Manager
Pat Murphy’s playoff record is currently 1-2 in games and 0-1 in series. The Brewers nearly secured that Wild Card Series, leading 2-0 in the top of the ninth in Game 3, but the Mets scored four runs against the Brewers’ bullpen. While managers sometimes face criticism in such situations, no manager would have acted differently than using his closer. This was not Murphy’s fault.
However, he lacks positive playoff experiences to draw upon. Nevertheless, I believe he is capable of leading this team to a World Series victory this season. I see no reason to think otherwise.
Sustainability
This is the primary argument against the Brewers.
Many players appear to be exceeding expectations. Even if they are emerging as stars, there will be skepticism surrounding the likes of Vaughn and Collins, as well as doubts about the sustainability of players like Turang and Frelick. Bullpens are inherently unpredictable, so a decline in performance is possible. Injuries could also become a concern within the rotation. Yelich will remain an injury risk for the remainder of his career.
On a team level, even the Brewers would likely acknowledge that maintaining a pace of winning 27 of 31 games is unrealistic. Their 51-16 record since May 24 translates to a 123-win pace over 162 games.
Simply put: Can they continue to perform as the best team in MLB history?
No, they cannot.
However, they don’t need to. They could experience a period of regression for about three weeks and then regain their form in October to win the World Series.
Overall, while some aspects of the Brewers’ performance are unsustainable, they are currently underrated in World Series odds.
