Chiefs Playoff Panic? Barnwell Assesses Kansas City.

As the Broncos placekicker, Wil Lutz, prepared for a 35-yard attempt to secure victory against the Chiefs this past Sunday, a sense of familiarity might have washed over Denver. Almost a year prior, Lutz faced a similar scenario: a 35-yard field goal attempt with the goal of defeating the same Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Just as with this instance, the kick followed a productive series by the team’s young quarterback, Bo Nix, who steered the offense efficiently, placing his team within striking distance of a pivotal win. The Broncos fanbase longed for a triumph over their rivals, a victory that could potentially propel the franchise forward. Belief in defeating the Chiefs is often contingent on actually achieving it.

The subsequent outcome delineates a significant distinction between the Chiefs of 2024 and those of 2025. The previous year witnessed the team salvaging a 19-17 win as Leo Chenal successfully blocked Lutz’s attempt. Kansas City established a league record of 10-0 in matches settled by seven points or fewer. This year, however, the team’s performance in closely contested games has been subpar. Following Lutz’s successful kick, securing a 22-19 victory for Denver, the Chiefs’ record in one-score games deteriorated to 0-5 for the 2025 season.

This game was perceived as an opportunity for the Chiefs to regain their footing. The Week 9 loss against the Bills was one event, but Kansas City had just come off a bye, a period often utilized by coach Andy Reid to devise effective strategies. The Broncos were without their premier player, cornerback Pat Surtain II, and Nix had recently secured a tight victory against the Raiders, during which he faced boos from the home crowd. Denver had previously defeated the Chiefs’ second-string players in Week 18 of the previous season, but the current circumstances were distinct; positioned eighth in the AFC, the Chiefs aimed to climb back to the top of the standings.

However, this did not come to pass. The Chiefs’ streak of nine consecutive AFC West titles is now under threat, as they hold a 5-5 record, trailing Denver by 3½ games and also losing head-to-head tiebreakers with both the Broncos and the Chargers. This could lead to a subdued January in Kansas City’s hotels and restaurants for the first time in nearly a decade, and the Chiefs may lose their intimidating presence due to the prospect of playing before enthusiastic fans in harsh weather conditions.

Subscribe: ‘The Bill Barnwell Show’

Could the situation worsen? The defeat on Sunday pushed the Chiefs down to the ninth spot in the AFC. The current wild-card teams are the Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars, all of whom share a victory over the Chiefs this season, thereby holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage. Kansas City holds a 2-4 record in the AFC this season and is scheduled to face the Colts, who currently lead the AFC South with an 8-2 record.

While it may seem extreme to suggest that the Chiefs are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs, I will elaborate on why I believe the actual difference between this year’s Chiefs and last year’s team, based on play-by-play analysis, may not be as substantial as it appears. However, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) indicates a 44.6% chance of the Chiefs missing the playoffs after Sunday’s defeat. Despite the temptation to disregard an algorithm, assuming it fails to recognize that this is the Chiefs, it was equally easy to dismiss concerns about Kansas City’s record in close games before the season. As Patrick Mahomes and his team strive to recover from another frustrating loss, it seems this version of the Chiefs is vulnerable to various factors, including mathematical projections.

I, along with many others, have various questions about the Chiefs’ current state. Can they overcome this slump, or are we witnessing a fundamentally flawed version of a perennial Super Bowl contender? Imagining a playoff scenario that doesn’t involve Kansas City is one possibility. But envisioning a playoff scenario that excludes the Chiefs entirely is a different matter.

Jump to:
Are the Chiefs broken?
Why isn’t Mahomes bailing them out?
What’s actually different in 2025?
Does this ever happen to elite QBs?
Could they miss the playoffs?
Could they still win it all?

Are the Chiefs broken?

Deep breath … no. In reality, the play-by-play performance difference between this season’s Chiefs (5-5) and last season’s team (15-1 before resting starters against the Broncos after securing the AFC’s top seed) isn’t significant. The metrics employed to project underlying performance don’t reveal a substantial gap between the two teams.

Excluding the second game against the Broncos, the 2024 Chiefs secured victories by an average of 6.1 points per game. Through 10 weeks, the 2025 Chiefs have a superior point differential, winning by an average of 7.3 points per contest. Although they’ve lost close games, their five victories have been decisive, including wins over the Lions and Ravens.

The Pythagorean expectation formula projects the 2024 Chiefs to win 10.2 games over a full season, while the 2025 Chiefs are projected to win 11.7 games. The timing and manner of accruing these points matter, but point differential serves as a more reliable predictor of future win-loss records than the actual win-loss record.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which factors in down, distance, opponent, and game situation, provides a more nuanced assessment of team performance than point differential. Before the Week 18 Broncos game last season, the Chiefs ranked sixth in the league in DVOA at 21.4%. While the 2025 figure doesn’t account for Sunday’s defeat, the Chiefs entered the Broncos game ranked fifth in the league in 2025 DVOA at 25.1%.

ESPN’s FPI also aims to assess team strength by accounting for relevant factors. Last season’s Chiefs finished the regular season ranked sixth in FPI. Despite a 5-4 record, the Chiefs entered Sunday leading the league in FPI and retained the No. 1 spot after Sunday’s loss.

EPA (Expected Points Added) aligns with this assessment. The Chiefs ranked 11th in EPA per play on offense last year, improving to third this season. The defense has also improved, moving from 15th in EPA per play to 10th. The schedule has been more challenging, with the Chiefs facing the league’s 18th-toughest schedule in 2024 and the fifth-toughest set of opponents thus far this season. However, this does not fully explain the shift from a 15-2 record to a 5-5 mark at the season’s midway point.

The primary distinction lies in the Chiefs’ ability to secure close games in 2024. In August, I included the Chiefs on my annual list of teams likely to regress, which was not surprising. Winning 15 or more games in consecutive seasons is uncommon, and I have consistently identified teams with unsustainable records in one-score games as potential regression candidates. (I still anticipated the Chiefs winning 12 games, which would now necessitate winning every remaining game.)

While preparing that analysis, it became evident how fragile the Chiefs’ 15-win record was, partly because there wasn’t a single, reliable strategy. If the Chiefs had consistently won shootouts, showcased a dominant defense that kept every game low-scoring, or relied on their quarterback to consistently make game-winning plays, it would have been different. However, none of those elements were consistently present; instead, success depended on varied and often unsustainable factors each week.

Upon closer examination of last season, similarities emerge between the Chiefs’ performance then and their performance this season, albeit with significantly less favorable outcomes.

---

Why aren’t Mahomes and the defense bailing them out?

Despite being defeated by the Eagles in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs displayed an uncanny knack for making crucial plays in critical moments during their close games in 2024. This characteristic is often linked to elite quarterbacks, and Mahomes has certainly exhibited such clutch performances, including the 13-second score against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game and the scramble that set up the game-winning field goal against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

Mahomes has scored late in several of the Chiefs’ losses this season, but the Broncos game was perhaps the most significant instance of Mahomes failing to capitalize on an opportunity to take control and win with a decisive drive. With the score tied and 4:05 remaining after a Broncos field goal, the Chiefs had the ball in a situation where Mahomes would typically be expected to orchestrate a series of impactful plays, manage the clock, and set up the game-winning score. Instead, the Chiefs went three-and-out, with Mahomes being sacked on third down by Ja’Quan McMillian. They did not regain possession.

The perception that Mahomes consistently rescued the team in such situations last season is not entirely accurate. There were numerous instances where he had opportunities to either secure the lead or clinch the game with a late drive in the fourth quarter, only for the offense to falter. In their wins against the Ravens, Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Raiders, the Chiefs failed to put away the game or significantly drain the clock or gain substantial yardage with their late fourth-quarter drives.

While the Broncos matchup, where the game was tied, differs slightly from a four-minute drill with a lead in those other contests, the Chiefs have never solely relied on their running game to seal victories. They also struggled in situations requiring a touchdown. For example, against the Broncos last year, the Chiefs failed on third-and-goal from the 2-yard line with 5:59 remaining and settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a two-point lead. The Broncos retained possession for the remainder of the game and did not need to traverse the entire field for a touchdown, eventually reaching field goal range before Chenal thwarted their hopes.

Attributing the blocked kick to the defense’s stop in that game would be generous, considering they allowed the Broncos to enter field goal range to begin with. While the Chiefs defense held the Broncos to a field goal on their second-to-last drive on Sunday, they also conceded a third-and-15 conversion to Courtland Sutton after Nix found him, a play allowed by a surprisingly conservative defensive scheme. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo employed a five-man rush but only sent three, opting for Cover 2 man coverage with seven defenders and a spy. Defensive tackle Chris Jones suggested that the Broncos correctly anticipated the play before the snap. Nix had ample time to throw, and Sutton eventually separated from cornerback Jaylen Watson.

Similarly, the narrative of the defense repeatedly shutting the door in critical game situations last year is somewhat misleading. The Ravens drove downfield and came within inches of scoring a touchdown on the final play. The Falcons advanced down the field twice with the potential to score a game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter, but the Chiefs benefited from a blatant pass interference penalty. Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell fumbled a snap in field goal range while trailing by two points. And, of course, Chenal blocked the field goal against the Broncos.

Even acknowledging those as well-timed stops, the defense did relinquish leads in 2024. The Buccaneers scored a touchdown with 36 seconds remaining and tied the game with an extra point, but the Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime and never surrendered possession. The Panthers scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game with 1:49 remaining, only for Mahomes to lead a game-winning drive. The Chargers maintained possession for eight minutes and kicked a field goal to take the lead, only for Matthew Wright’s 31-yard attempt to hit the uprights and bounce in, giving the Chiefs a last-second victory.

This season, the defense allowed Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to advance 60 yards in 75 seconds while protecting a four-point lead, culminating in Lawrence tripping but still managing to get up and scramble for a game-winning touchdown. The Chiefs scored a touchdown to take the lead with 1:48 remaining in that game, but Harrison Butker’s kickoff went out of bounds, handing the Jags possession at the 40-yard line.

If we begin to pinpoint specific issues plaguing the Chiefs versus those that existed in 2024, special teams might be a logical starting point …

---

What’s actually different (and worrying)?

The Chiefs generally performed well on special teams last season, with several key moments working in their favor. Chenal secured a win with his blocked kick. Daniel Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal that would have given the Raiders a fourth-quarter lead. Wright’s field goal bounced off the uprights and in to decide a game. Kickers converted a league-low 81.8% of their field goal and extra point attempts against the Chiefs last season, compared to 33-of-35 (94.3%) this season.

Collectively, the Chiefs were 6-for-6 on field goal attempts to take the lead in the fourth quarter last year, three more successful conversions than any other NFL team. Their special teams operation has been sloppier this season, although primarily in more subtle ways. Butker missed an extra point in the loss to the Chargers and a 58-yard field goal attempt in the three-point defeat to the Eagles. On Sunday, his kickoff landed short of the end zone, although it did not lead to any points on the Broncos’ subsequent drive.

Butker also had an extra point blocked after the touchdown that put the Chiefs ahead 19-16 in the fourth quarter. Offensive tackle Wanya Morris lined up next to the center on the attempt. While teams can overload offensive linemen on these block attempts, the Broncos twisted one of the linemen over Morris to the other side of the line, leaving him to block just one defender. He did not adequately block that defender, Frank Crum, who made the critical block. The entire endgame scenario might have unfolded differently if the Broncos needed a touchdown rather than settling for a field goal.

Spagnuolo’s conservative playcalling also stood out. Known for executing timely blitzes, he has made a name for himself, most recently sealing the AFC Championship Game victory against the Bills in January. While dropping into coverage and attempting to induce Nix to make a mistake is understandable (and the second-year quarterback nearly did), it deviates from the Chiefs’ typical defensive approach in crucial situations.

This decision may have stemmed from the Chiefs’ unreliability and ineffectiveness in blitzing this season. Following Sunday’s loss, the Chiefs rank last in the NFL in pressure rate (32.4%) when sending extra rushers. In 2024, they ranked ninth (44.0%). Unsurprisingly, ineffective blitzes result in a subpar defense. The Chiefs’ QBR when blitzing has dropped from 10th last season to 23rd this season. Nix completed 6-of-8 passes for 113 yards against the blitz on Sunday.

The Chiefs appear to miss safety Justin Reid, a physical presence and reliable tackler in the secondary last season before joining the Saints in free agency. Spagnuolo seems to still be determining his preferred personnel for key secondary positions, despite being midway through November. Trent McDuffie is playing at a Pro Bowl level and can line up anywhere, and Watson is an established outside cornerback, but the Chiefs rotate almost every other player and haven’t settled on consistent every-down players.

Nohl Williams, a promising third-round pick who has shown potential in limited action, did not play a defensive snap on Sunday. Bryan Cook, who had seen fewer snaps recently, resumed an every-down role for the first time since Week 2. Chris Roland-Wallace, who played some free safety earlier in the season, spent the entire game near the line of scrimmage. Kristian Fulton, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Chiefs this offseason, returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 2 but allowed 21- and 35-yard completions across nine snaps.

Sunday nearly marked the third instance this season of Mahomes committing a recurring error: throwing interceptions in the red zone. He threw two interceptions on 105 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line in 2024 and has already thrown two on 63 attempts this season. McMillan’s interception on Sunday, which occurred on a play starting at the Denver 21-yard line, was the only reason he didn’t have a third. Kelce was responsible for one of those picks, dropping a pass at the goal line against the Eagles, but Mahomes threw a pick-six to Devin Lloyd against the Jaguars and didn’t get enough on a throw while scrambling to the sideline on Sunday. The Broncos then drove downfield for a touchdown. If we count the play from the 21-yard line as an honorary red zone pick, Mahomes has thrown red zone interceptions in three of their five losses. Even if we assume the Chiefs would have settled for field goals in those situations, the picks have cost Kansas City nine points. The Eagles, Broncos, and Jaguars converted those picks into touchdowns, a collective 30-point swing in games decided by three points or less.

The Chiefs have improved in some areas, especially on offense. Josh Simmons has been an upgrade at left tackle, and despite missing time due to a personal situation, the first-round rookie returned to the lineup on Sunday and performed admirably against a formidable Broncos pass rush. Simmons allowed one quick pressure on 48 Mahomes dropbacks. Last year, in the same game, Kingsley Suamataia filled in for an injured Morris and allowed three quick pressures and a sack at left tackle.

Mahomes has also delivered on his offseason promise to take more shots downfield. While he was only 1-of-6 on deep passes against the Broncos, his completion was a 61-yarder to Tyquan Thornton, who outran McMillan for the longest completion of the day. Mahomes also drew 40- and 47-yard pass interference penalties on throws downfield against Riley Moss. All three Kansas City scoring drives featured at least one downfield completion or PI penalty, as the Chiefs struggled to sustain lengthy drives with shorter conversions.

Mahomes has 17 completions on throws of 20 air yards or more this season, and his QBR on those throws ranks third in the league. Last year, he only had 12 such completions all season, and his QBR ranked 28th. He was also 27th the prior season. However, Mahomes missed Xavier Worthy and Thornton for potential long completions on the opening drive, which might have altered the game’s complexion.

---

Do quarterbacks like Mahomes ever come up short?

It depends on how many quarterbacks you include in his category. FPI gave the Chiefs a 23.9% chance of missing the playoffs before the season, but that also accounts for the possibility of Mahomes getting injured. If you polled fans in August about whether a Chiefs team with a healthy Mahomes would miss the postseason, finding someone who believed it would have been challenging.

Mahomes seemed like a preseason lock for the playoffs because he has never come close to missing them. The Chiefs were a top-three seed at this point of the season in six of his first seven years as the starting quarterback in Kansas City. While the Broncos or Chargers winning the division might have been plausible, nobody projected the Chiefs to miss the playoffs this summer, and with good reason.

The 30-year-old quarterback also feels like a lock because his constant comparison also seemingly never missed the postseason. The start of Mahomes’ career coincided with the final years of Tom Brady’s career, and the seven-time Super Bowl champion was similarly booked for January every year. The Patriots missed the playoffs in 2002 (Brady’s second year as a starter) and 2008 (when Brady tore his ACL in the opener and missed the entire season), and the Buccaneers limped to the playoffs at 8-9 in Brady’s final year, but those situations are drastically different from the one Mahomes faces now.

Is it fair to hold Mahomes to Brady’s standard? Yes. Examining other Hall of Famers who won MVP awards reveals that the notion of a legendary quarterback missing the playoffs or hovering around .500 through 10 games isn’t unprecedented, even during healthy seasons in their prime:

• Peyton Manning went 6-10 as a 25-year-old with the Colts in 2001, despite earning MVP votes in 1999 and 2000.

• Brett Favre was 5-4 in the middle of his first MVP season in 1995 before improving. He was 5-5 at this point in 1999 as a 30-year-old for a Packers team that missed the playoffs and was .500 or worse after 10 games in 2003, 2004, and 2005 (although he was nearing the end of his career then).

• Aaron Rodgers was 4-6 at this point in 2016, his age-33 season with the Packers. Green Bay improved and won the division before reaching the NFC Championship Game.

• Joe Montana had seasons impacted by a strike and injuries, but he was healthy in 1985, and his 49ers were still only 5-5 through 10 games. Fresh off a Super Bowl win in 1984, the 49ers sneaked into the playoffs as a 10-6 wild card, where they were quickly eliminated by the Giants.

• John Elway won the MVP award in 1987 and took the Broncos to the Super Bowl, but the following season saw him start 5-5 and miss the playoffs. He was 28 then. The Broncos started 3-7 in 1990 and missed the playoffs again in Elway’s age-30 campaign.

• Dan Marino was the first-team All-Pro quarterback for the third straight year in 1986, but after consecutive postseason runs, a poor defense led the Dolphins to start 4-6 and miss the playoffs in Marino’s age-25 campaign.

• Kurt Warner wasn’t often healthy enough to complete full seasons, but he went 0-6 as a starter in 2002, a year after winning his second MVP award and playing Brady in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ contemporaries have also stumbled. The Bills and Josh Allen were 5-5 at this point two years ago, leading to Sean McDermott firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. The Bills entered their bye at 6-6 but won their final five games and capitalized on a Dolphins collapse to win the AFC East, losing to the Chiefs at home in the divisional round.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been too good in the regular season to lose many games, but they were 6-5 in 2020 after losing to the Steelers. Like Allen in Buffalo, Jackson and the Ravens won their final five games, finishing 11-5. They then beat an 11-5 Titans team on the road for Jackson’s first playoff win before losing to the Bills in the divisional round.

Other legendary quarterbacks missing the playoffs would not diminish the impact for the Chiefs and Mahomes now. It would be surprising because the best quarterback at a given time hasn’t missed the playoffs in a healthy season since Elway or Montana. Assessing who is the best is subjective, but we’ve been spoiled by Brady and Mahomes’ consistency