A significant difference exists between the common understanding and the actual nature of critical moments in basketball games. Often, people think of it as an inherent trait: certain athletes and teams possess the knack for performing well under pressure, while others do not. The reality is more complex. In truth, pivotal plays represent such a small portion of the game that outcomes may seem arbitrary. The Bulls of the previous year, for example, had a more favorable net rating in close games than the Celtics of the same year. The Mavericks from 2022-23, who didn’t even make it to the postseason, had a 26-29 record in critical game situations. Conversely, the 2023-24 team, featuring a very similar roster, advanced to the NBA Finals with a 23-9 record in those same situations. While not entirely random, performance in the clutch rarely remains consistent.
That is, unless you’ve had Chris Paul for the last few decades. The Houston Rockets of 2016-17 ranked 18th in net rating during crunch time. The very next year, after acquiring Chris Paul, they jumped to first place, outperforming opponents by 27.1 points per 100 possessions in those crucial moments. The Oklahoma City Thunder of 2018-19 were 11th in clutch net rating. Subsequently, with the arrival of Paul, they clinched the top spot in the 2019-20 season, exceeding their rivals by 24.4 points per 100 possessions in those critical stretches. The Phoenix Suns of 2019-20 were ranked 21st among all NBA teams in clutch net rating. If you’re starting to notice a pattern, prepare for a slight deviation. It took Paul two complete years to guide them to the league’s best clutch net rating, an impressive +33.4 during the 2021-22 season. In his initial season in Phoenix, he merely managed to lead them to the NBA Finals.
From his inaugural All-Star season in 2008 to his last in 2022, Paul emerged victorious in 65% of the games defined by the NBA as clutch situations. Over the same timeframe, LeBron James secured a 64.2% win rate. Applying the same criteria, comparing the time between their first All-Star selections and their last, to contemporaries such as Kevin Durant (59.6%) and Stephen Curry (60.5%), Paul still maintains the leading position. In the NBA of the 21st century, securing Paul for your team presented the most straightforward path to success in closely contested regular-season games.
Chris Paul to retire: Clippers point guard, 12-time All-Star, stepping away at conclusion of 2025-26 season
Cody Nagel
That ominous qualifier, consisting of just two words, is destined to be Paul’s legacy after his anticipated retirement at the close of the 2025-26 season. Achievements in the regular season often go unacknowledged if they aren’t mirrored in the playoffs. Paul has never clinched a championship title. Unless the Clippers experience an unexpected resurgence or a trade occurs that we haven’t foreseen, he’s likely to conclude his career without securing a ring. Even if he were to win one this season, it’s questionable whether it would hold significant weight. Paul’s presence in the Clippers’ lineup has been inconsistent, and the superstar he once was is no longer evident. He appears destined to join the list of legendary players who never achieved championship glory.
And he stands out as a particularly perplexing addition to this list. He isn’t like his former and current teammate, James Harden, who has a documented history of underperforming in elimination games. His dedication and physical fitness remained consistent, unlike Charles Barkley’s fluctuating efforts. There isn’t one significant flaw or defect that prevented him from achieving greatness. Paul excelled in practically every aspect of the game. He shares the distinction of having the seventh-most All-Defense selections in NBA history, an impressive feat for a guard listed at 6 feet tall (though likely shorter). He’s come close to achieving 50-40-90 shooting seasons, led the NBA in assists five times while rarely committing turnovers, and even demonstrated exceptional rebounding skills for a guard. He’s a brilliant basketball mind, so adept at finding advantages that he once successfully persuaded a referee to issue a technical foul to an opponent for not having his jersey tucked in. He embodies the essence of a winning player, yet he never actually achieved the ultimate victory.
Of course, he bears some responsibility for this outcome. The 2014 collapse against Oklahoma City, for example, was an unmitigated disaster. Paul committed two turnovers in a span of 17 seconds and fouled Russell Westbrook on a 3-point attempt while holding a two-point lead, culminating in the most devastating loss of his playoff career. However, James experienced the 2011 Finals, and Kobe Bryant faced a similar situation in 2004. Every legend has a blemish on their record, which they typically erase through their victories. Unfortunately, the stars never fully aligned for Paul, often due to circumstances beyond his control.
How many star players have had a trade nullified by the league? If David Stern hadn’t blocked his trade to the Lakers, he would likely have secured at least one championship in the iconic purple and gold, as is often the case. This could have been alongside Bryant during the final stages of his career or with a subsequent iteration of the team. Instead, he was traded to the infamous Clippers. Blake Griffin struggled with injuries, and Donald Sterling was compelled to sell the team.
Nonetheless, he had a genuine chance to win the 2015 title in Los Angeles. He had just defeated the reigning champion Spurs and guided the Rockets to a 19-point advantage late in the third quarter of an elimination game in the second round before Josh Smith and Corey Brewer delivered the most remarkable shooting quarter of their careers, snatching the game and, eventually, the series. At that juncture, the Warriors appeared vulnerable. The Grizzlies had pushed them to six games, and the Cavaliers would ultimately do the same, albeit without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. However, Paul, hampered by an injury, was unable to prevent one of the most notorious instances of poor shooting luck in playoff history.
Golden State ascended from that point and evolved into Paul’s most persistent adversary, along with injuries. Imagine if the Warriors had secured the title in 2016. Might Durant have opted to play in Los Angeles with Paul, rather than joining Curry and the Warriors? We will never know. Paul had his share of star teammates, but he never had what Curry and Durant possessed together, an indisputable and virtually unstoppable championship favorite.
“Virtually” unstoppable because Paul nearly halted them alongside Harden. Houston held a 3-2 lead over Golden State after five games in the 2018 Western Conference finals. However, Paul injured his hamstring toward the end of Game 5. The Warriors effortlessly won Game 6 on their home court. Then, in yet another illustration of unfortunate shooting variance, Houston suffered an infamous Game 7 defeat at home, marked by a 0-for-27 shooting slump from beyond the arc. A year later, Paul’s relationship with Harden deteriorated, leading to his trade to the Thunder.
No one will or should question what transpired next. Sam Presti traded Paul to Phoenix a year later, and he now possesses a promising dynasty. However, it’s difficult not to contemplate how things might have unfolded had the Thunder chosen not to tank. What could Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have achieved together over the ensuing years? Could Presti have leveraged his abundance of draft picks to build a championship team around him? We’ll never know. Paul moved to Phoenix, coming closer than ever before. Then, Giannis Antetokounmpo had his defining moment. The team contracted COVID and faltered against Dallas in 2022, seemingly closing Paul’s championship window. He might have had the opportunity to reopen it as a 2024 free agent. He chose to pursue a significant role with the Spurs over a backup position with a superior team. “I cherish the opportunity to play, contribute, and simply hoop,” Paul stated at the time.
He excelled at it as much as almost anyone who has ever played the game. After all, he’s known as the “Point God” for a reason. However, as mentioned earlier, clutch performance involves a degree of randomness, and winning championships requires excelling in crucial moments. Paul did everything humanly possible to position himself for success, but even he couldn’t control all the variables. He ultimately became one of the unluckiest players in recent NBA history. If his career were simulated 100 times, he would win a championship in 90 of them. If even a single factor were adjusted — injuries, shooting variance, team dynamics — he would hoist a trophy at some point.
Instead, he joins the disappointing ranks of all-time greats who never had the chance.
