The seventeenth week of the NFL schedule commences with three divisional showdowns on Christmas Day.
Two teams from the NFC East begin the action as the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) travel to face the Washington Commanders (4-11). Following this, an NFC North contest features the Detroit Lions (8-7) striving to maintain their postseason aspirations on the road against the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).
The day concludes with an AFC West battle, with the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) hosting the Denver Broncos (12-3).
Considering placing wagers on these games? Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, and Seth Walder present their insights for betting and daily fantasy.
Notice: Odds are supplied by DraftKings and may fluctuate.
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DAL-WAS: Forecasts | Player Bets | DFS Advice | Patterns
DET-MIN: Forecasts | Player Bets | DFS Advice | Patterns
DEN-KC: Forecasts | Player Bets | DFS Advice | Patterns
Both the Dallas and Washington franchises have already been removed from playoff contention. The Cowboys have experienced three consecutive defeats, while the Commanders are coming off a loss against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Washington has contended with numerous injuries, particularly to starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, and Dallas’ defensive unit has been vulnerable to opposing offenses throughout the entire season.
Dallas decisively defeated the Commanders 44-22 in their initial encounter this season.
The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday in a matchup boasting the week’s third-highest projected point total.
Game Wager
Total points surpass 50.5 (-118)
Maldonado: The Cowboys dictate the tempo. When they score, Washington will be compelled to abandon its customary approach and fall into disarray. This is where the points originate: spontaneous plays, defensive miscommunications, advantageous field position, and quick scoring drives. The Commanders do not decelerate the game when trailing; they accelerate and commit errors. Dallas is sufficiently effective to capitalize each time. Command from one side and desperation from the other creates a rapid, chaotic scoring exchange. This scenario favors higher point totals.
Notable Player Prop Bets
1:33
Daniel Dopp: CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens both top-15 WRs for Week 17
Daniel Dopp breaks down the fantasy performances of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. the Chargers ahead of a matchup vs. the Commanders.
George Pickens EXCEEDS 80.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bowen: Pickens achieved 130 receiving yards in the Week 16 game against the Los Angeles Chargers and has recorded 88 or more yards in four of his last six outings. Favorable matchups are present on the perimeter against the Washington secondary, suitable for deep-ball throws.
CeeDee Lamb EXCEEDS 77.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: Lamb has surpassed this mark in three of his past five contests and has averaged 9.0 targets per game during that period. He is positioned favorably against a Commanders defense that has conceded the seventh-highest passing yards per game this season. Lamb also exceeded this total against Washington back in Week 7.
Fantasy Football Suggestions for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Dak Prescott ($16,500) has accumulated 290 or more passing yards — along with at least two touchdowns — in four of his last six games. He will also possess matchup advantages at multiple areas of the field against the Washington defense. Expect a high-volume passing day for Dallas.
Additionally in my roster: Jake Ferguson ($6,200). I anticipate Ferguson performing as a red zone target in this matchup. In the Week 7 direct contest against Washington, Ferguson secured two touchdown receptions. He serves as an underneath option for Dak who can be set up within the 10-yard line.
Maldonado’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): CeeDee Lamb ($15,900). This game plan favors his involvement. Dallas dictates, Washington pursues, and coverage eventually breaks down. Lamb excels in open space, accumulating receptions, yardage, and red zone opportunities. If the Cowboys can reach the 40s in points as I believe, or even the 30s, Lamb is the most straightforward route to generating that output.
Additionally in my roster: Dak Prescott ($11,000) should maintain efficiency and aggressiveness, particularly if the Commanders score just enough to keep him throwing. He complements Lamb perfectly, capturing every touchdown opportunity this offense generates. If the game’s over/under is met, it will be largely due to Prescott.
Moody’s selection
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Dak Prescott ($16,500) averaged 291.3 passing yards and 3.6 touchdowns per game in his last three meetings with the Commanders. Washington’s defense has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Wagering Trends
Data provided by ESPN Research
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The Cowboys have covered the spread in five consecutive matchups and eight of the last nine head-to-head games.
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The Commanders have a 5-10 against the spread (ATS) record this season, tied for the league’s poorest mark. They are 3-9 ATS when playing as underdogs.
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Six consecutive Commanders home games have gone over the total. Five straight Cowboys road games have also gone over the total. Overs are 11-4 in Cowboys games this season, representing the highest rate in the NFL.
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The Cowboys hold an 0-4 ATS record on short rest this season and an 0-3 ATS record in their last three games overall.
1:32
Why Foxworth isn’t ready to close the window on the Lions
Domonique Foxworth and Dan Orlovsky break down what the Lions’ disappointing season means for their Super Bowl chances moving forward.
The Lions are striving to keep their hopes for the playoffs alive, while the Vikings are concluding a disappointing season.
Max Brosmer will commence his second start for the Vikings, who previously defeated the Lions in Week 9 with J.J. McCarthy playing quarterback.
The Vikings secured a three-point victory in that game but are now 7.5-point underdogs at home on Thursday against the Lions.
Game Wager
Lions -6 (alternate line -147)
Maldonado: Detroit suffered a three-point loss in the initial encounter despite outgaining Minnesota and exhibiting efficient passing. The Lions failed to convert scoring chances due to red zone inefficiencies, a fumble, and special teams errors. Minnesota required its ideal game flow to win and still barely prevailed. If the Lions execute a marginally cleaner game, the disparity will become apparent. They possess the offensive potential and margin to create separation.
Notable Player Prop Bets
Jared Goff EXCEEDS 241.5 passing yards (-114)
Moody: Even though the Vikings’ secondary has been challenging for quarterbacks all season, Goff and the Lions will play aggressively in a crucial game to sustain their playoff aspirations. Goff has exceeded this yardage in eight of his past ten games, including a previous matchup against Minnesota this season. With one of the league’s premier wide receiver duos in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, he is well-equipped to surpass this total.
Jahmyr Gibbs EXCEEDS 33.5 receiving yards (-111)
Bowen: Gibbs has recorded at least seven receptions and 45 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He will receive opportunities as an underneath target/blitz outlet against the Vikings’ aggressive defensive pressure.
Lions Defense/Special Teams to score a touchdown at any point (+475)
Walder: Do I need to remind you of the outcome in Max Brosmer’s previous start? In that contest — admittedly, it was against the Seattle Seahawks — he registered a 5.0 QBR. This will be his second start. The Vikings’ offense has presented ample scoring chances for opposing defenses throughout the year, and much of that occurred with J.J. McCarthy as the starter. It can only improve with his backup playing. My defensive touchdown model and I are quite content to continue betting on Minnesota providing a devastating turnover at these odds. My model estimates the fair price here at +326.
Fantasy Football Suggestions for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Jahmyr Gibbs (17,100). Gibbs’ rushing efficiency has diminished over the last four weeks, but I will opt for his dual-threat potential. Gibbs has seven or more receptions in three of his last five games, and we know he is an explosive ball carrier when he finds open space.
Additionally in my roster: Isaac TeSlaa ($3,400) is a player whose fantasy value depends on scoring touchdowns, but he has also recorded touchdown receptions in three of his last four games. He can extend the field or utilize his physique and catching abilities as a red zone option.
Maldonado’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16.200). The Lions relied heavily on him in their first meeting, and Minnesota struggled to limit his target volume. If the Lions control the game script, St. Brown’s floor for targets and red zone usage provides him an opportunity for a slate-defining score.
Additionally in my roster: Jahmyr Gibbs ($11,400). Detroit requires greater running efficiency than it demonstrated in the first matchup, and Gibbs’ explosiveness offers multi-touchdown upside through both rushing and receiving. If the Lions play with a lead, Gibbs’ role will expand.
Moody’s selection
In my roster: Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,700) is an intriguing choice, with the Vikings possibly emphasizing their running game as J.J. McCarthy recovers from a right hand injury. The matchup is favorable, and Minnesota’s offensive line ranks second in run block win rate. Jaylen Warren (32.1 fantasy points) and Kenneth Gainwell (23.8) both delivered strong Week 16 performances against the Lions.
Walder’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Jahmyr Gibbs ($17,100). The Lions are in a dire situation and are facing a Brian Flores defense against a backup quarterback. To me, that suggests a monumental game for Gibbs. It will likely be a popular choice, but there are some decent lower-cost options in this game to compensate.
Additionally in my roster: Lions Defense/Special Teams ($4,200). And here is one of those budget-friendly options. I consider the Lions the most probable defensive/special teams unit in the league to score a touchdown this week, despite being considerably cheaper than the Denver Broncos D/ST, so I aim to leverage that opportunity here.
Wagering Trends
Data provided by ESPN Research
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The Lions are 14-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 16 games after a loss (15-1 outright). Last week’s game ended a 15-game winning streak following a defeat.
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The Lions are 13-2 ATS as road favorites since 2023 and 8-1 ATS since the beginning of last season.
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The Lions are 8-1 ATS against the Vikings under coach Dan Campbell.
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Five consecutive Lions games have gone over the total. Overs are 10-5 in Lions games, the second-highest over rate in the NFL.
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The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
0:55
John Elway impressed by Bo Nix’s maturity level
John Elway joins Rich Eisen and breaks down how Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s maturity has been impressive.
The Broncos share the league’s top record and currently hold the number one seed in the AFC. Their season is progressing favorably.
The situation is less ideal for the Chiefs, who lost Patrick Mahomes due to a torn ACL in Week 15 and have already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Denver can secure the AFC West title with a victory in Kansas City and a Chargers defeat on Saturday.
Denver’s 11-game winning streak was interrupted last week, but they are a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday, which is tied for the largest point spread of the week.
Game Wager
Total points remain UNDER 36.5 (-112)
Maldonado: A low total, but it is logical given that Kansas City’s offense struggles to sustain drives, even more so without Patrick Mahomes. Statistics reveal significant third-down difficulties, limited explosive plays, and red zone inefficiencies that restrict their scoring potential. Denver does not need to rush the pace or chase points, especially with defensive pressure that shortens games, compels punts, and safeguards leads.
Notable Player Prop Bets
1:03
Is RJ Harvey a good fantasy play vs. Chiefs?
Daniel Dopp offers his fantasy forecast for RJ Harvey vs. the Chiefs in Week 17.
Bo Nix EXCEEDS 227.5 passing yards (-113)
Bowen: Nix has recorded 300 or more passing yards in three of his last four games. His timing throws are improving, and ball placement is becoming more consistent. Bet on Nix to surpass the total against the Chiefs.
Nix ATTEMPTS FEWER THAN 34.5 passes (-126)
Walder: The Broncos are generally a pass-oriented team, but this wager hinges entirely on the game’s unfolding. With Denver so heavily favored against a Chiefs team led by Chris Oladokun, there’s a strong likelihood Denver will establish a significant lead and then concentrate on their running game to consume the clock. Even before that, the Broncos will surely seek a low-variance game plan in a contest they are expected to win comfortably. I estimate the fair price for this under at -168.
Courtland Sutton EXCEEDS 60.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: Sutton has been Nix’s most dependable target this season and has surpassed this line in four of his last five games, averaging 9.2 targets and 13.6 yards per reception during that interval. Denver is likely to emphasize its passing game against a Chiefs defense that has been heavily affected by injuries, which bodes well for Sutton.
Fantasy Football Suggestions for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Bo Nix ($15,500). As I previously noted, Nix has been productive as a passer, and this includes the Week 12 head-to-head game against the Chiefs where he threw for 295 yards. Nix also offers a dual-threat component with his scrambles.
Additionally in my roster: Courtland Sutton ($9,000) has experienced an increase in target volume, with at least 10 in his last three games. Furthermore, Sutton has recorded a touchdown reception in three of his last four outings. I will include him in my lineup against a Chiefs team that is merely completing its regular-season schedule at this point.
Maldonado’s selections
Captain (earns 1.5x fantasy points): Broncos Defense/Special Teams ($8,400). Denver benefits from the game script and the mismatch at quarterback. Pressure, sacks, and turnover opportunities increase against a limited Chiefs offense.
Additionally in my roster: Courtland Sutton ($9,000) remains Denver’s most reliable option for red zone targets and moving the chains. In a slow, controlled game, he absorbs high-leverage opportunities, offering touchdown potential without requiring a high-volume passing environment.
Moody’s selection
In my roster: RJ Harvey ($6,500) has accumulated at least 21 fantasy points in three of his last four games. His workload warrants attention as he continues to recover from a rib injury, but he displayed explosiveness on limited touches in Week 16. Harvey remains effective as both a runner and receiver behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate.
Wagering Trends
Data provided by ESPN Research
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The Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games and 5-10 ATS this season, tied for the worst record in the NFL.
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The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against the Chiefs, with four consecutive covers (3-0 ATS in the Bo Nix era).
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Five consecutive meetings between these teams have resulted in the total staying under.
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The Broncos are 0-4 ATS as road favorites this season and 2-8 ATS overall when favored.
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Unders are 11-4 in Chiefs games, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders are 9-1 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games. Unders are 8-0 following Chiefs losses this season.
