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Pamela Maldonado
The Cincinnati squad continues its victorious journey, nearing the summit of the Big 12 standings in its fledgling journey within the conference. Unbeaten in their league engagements and holding the No. 17 position nationally, the Bearcats carry the drive of a group assured of its place. Utah, positioned at No. 24, has frequented this stage before – formidable, tough, and keen on disrupting a flawless campaign.
The Bearcats have emerged as one of the most potent entities in the FBS across eight weeks, whilst Utah has safeguarded its essence of resilience and regulation. Consequently, it embodies a confrontation between effectiveness and tenacity, both boasting an approach capable of enduring during heightened pressure.
Here’s a projection of how this encounter might unfold.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 17 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 24 Utah Utes
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Utah -8.5
Money line: Utah (-320), Cincinnati (+260)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O -110, U -110)
Utah: The Apparent Dominance
Utah presents a 6-2 record and a defense amongst the nation’s elite, yet this profile might be marginally overstated in my evaluation. Two of their most emphatic displays transpired against Cal Poly and a 3-4 Colorado, who entered that match 0-2 on away grounds (and were outscored 71-41 in those outings).
The Utes triumphed in these encounters by a collective margin of 116-16, securing 17 of their 32 overall sacks. This signifies over half of their season’s production in merely two clashes. Against all other adversaries, the strain has been standard, the tackling unsteady, and the protection inconsistent.
The season evaluations for Utah depict the narrative: 52nd in defending against the run, 93rd in securing tackles, and 74th in coverage, indicating that adversaries are gaining ground at the forefront, evading tackles, and uncovering substantial plays within the secondary.
This iteration does not represent the overwhelming Utes defense we’ve come to anticipate under Kyle Whittingham. Indeed, barring those two overwhelming victories, Utah’s defensive assessments experienced a considerable downturn against credible FBS adversaries, implying inadequate pursuit and deficient concluding maneuvers.
This defense operates effectively when the game narrative is manageable, when the opposing force struggles to maintain its ground at the forefront, and when momentum accumulates on shortened fields. However, when confronted with superior competition, we witness a distinct, more genuine rendition. Consequently, whilst the record appears refined, they hover closer to the average.
Considerations for Wagering: Cincinnati +8.5
The line progressed from Utah -7 to -9.5 before reverting to -8.5. The common belief suggests that the offensive unit forfeits its character with RB Evan Pryor sidelined due to injury. Nonetheless, Tawee Walker and QB Brendan Sorsby have amassed over 900 rushing yards and 11 scores, each executing runs with poise and assurance.
Walker achieves a breakthrough in one of every five attempts, whilst Sorby’s dual-threat capability enhances his composure amidst pressure, maintaining efficiency even when facing blitzes. This agility proves crucial against a Utah pass rush that displays intensity in figures but is magnified by overwhelming triumphs. Confronted with a line that has conceded merely a single sack in the preceding month, this advantage diminishes swiftly.
The Bearcats engage in fewer plays per game but, in actuality, generate heightened per-play efficiency, ranking among the top 10 in both yards per play and points per play. This implies that they do not necessitate volume, as they possess rhythm, and rhythm dictates. This dynamic empowers Sorsby to deliver effectively when shielded, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, second-best in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech’s Behren Morton.
Consequently, whilst the Utes are designed to intimidate weaker fronts, Cincinnati’s equilibrium and fortitude provide them with sustained strength deep into the fourth quarter. The line adjustment is substantial. The Bearcats’ offensive arsenal can accrue sufficient points, maintain control, and restrict the margin to within a single possession.
However, the defensive unit is entering this encounter underrated, ranking among the top 10 in tackling proficiency, as the players are effectively executing assignments and concluding plays with precision. The Bearcats’ defense against the run concedes minimal gains post-contact and seldom falters in one-on-one stoppages.
Statistically, they might appear middle-tier, but fundamentally, they exhibit solidity and are infrequently overcome by subpar tackling. An additional rationale for endorsing them as near double-digit underdogs.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Cincinnati presents a 4-1 ATS record in conference matchups this season, tied for the conference’s pinnacle (Houston, Texas Tech).
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Cincinnati has suffered six consecutive ATS defeats in November, dating back to 2023, tied for the lengthiest streak in FBS (Texas A&M).
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Utah showcases a 9-3 ATS record since the preceding November, ranking fifth best in Power 4 during that timeframe.
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Cincinnati boasts a 7-4 ATS record in ranked engagements since 2019, ranking second best in FBS (min. 10 games).
